It's going to get much colder...

 As you might have heard already, we are in a favorable pattern for snow. However, we still haven't gotten any snow at all, even in the favorable pattern for snow. However, this means that if we get a good potential for a good storm, the chances of it happening increase. But, as you read by the title, its going to get colder. 

As you can see by the image above, there is indeed going to be colder temperatures in the next 6-10 days, and chances are leaning towards being colder than normal. We have sufficient cold air for the time period of 1-22-2021 to 1-26-2021. This means that any precip potential could easily give us a snowstorm. But that's not all.

Now this one shows a much stronger and higher chance for cold air! This means that any precipitation in the period of 01-24-2021 to 01-30-2021 is probably going to be snow. Expect temperatures in this period to be much, much colder than the temperatures we have now. But there's even more. 

Now, this thing really puts a good scenario for snow in our area. Why? Precipitation(not snow, just all precipitation in general), is supposed to be above average during the time period of 01-24-2021 to 01-30-2021. With the much colder air, this could easily bring us some snow. For the first image I showed you, the precipitation is supposed to be barely below average for half of the county(eastern side). However, we can still get some good snowstorms in that period too. 

This image from Justin Berk, a meteorologist, shows that after Friday the 22nd, the temperatures start to plunge and become colder. But, it's not just one cold push. The cold is going to be sustained, from the last part of this month to the beginning of February. That is good for snow, because it gives a good period of time for some snow to fall.

In conclusion, we will start to see colder temperatures after this week, and the cold air will be sustained, while we are in a favorable pattern for snow, giving us a good chance for snowstorms. The likeliest time for significant snowstorms is between 01-24-2021 to 0-30-2021, as we get more data.

Small Pattern Update

 So you know that pattern I was talking about at the very, very beginning of the year? Well, there's been a slight change, and I am going to make a small update on it.

As this tweet from Mike Thomas shows, the NAO in the very upper part of the world is going to get very negative, and the blocking will relax. That will allow the storm track to go up north to us! As I and a lot of other people have said, after the 13-16th, a winter storm threat will become more serious and likely. When the block relaxes, and "breaks down", this is when we have seen some of our better snowstorms in our area. The next week will be warmer than usual, but when we get to the end of this month and the beginning of February, we might see some cooling and get some decent cold air. That's all for now.

January 12th Storm Update

Unfortunately, this storm has faded away, just like the 8-9th storm. It hasn't gone south, as far as I am concerned though, instead it just dissipated. The northern piece was too out of place for a phase to occur, and a phase is what we need for a snowstorm.  The next week doesn't look that great for any snow. However, after the 15th, then we have a good chance to see some good snowfall. The blocking will relax, which will allow the precipitation course(s) to go up north to us. I will be watching the models closely for a threat that could materialize. Stay tuned folks.

January 8th to 9th Storm Update and More Storm News

Unfortunately, the overhype about the first storm in this new, favorable pattern for snow has dissipated and gone to the south. The January 8th-9th storm missed our area and went to the North Carolina area. However, next week is very interesting and is very similar to what we saw in Mid-December, where we got a smaller storm on Monday and a much bigger storm on Wednesday. We have a threat to watch on 12-13, and then ANOTHER threat on the 15-16th. However, I personally think(after some research), that any storm before the 15th shouldn't be taken as seriously(not in terms of impact) because of the heavy blocking in the Arctic. Once the blocking cools down, then storms in that period of time will be more serious(not saying that we can still get serious storms before the 15th). I will be watching both threats. The models are showing mixed things for these threats, and since they are so far out, only the GFS and Euro model show precipitation for these time periods. As we get closer, I will start showing models.

I made a Snowfall Tracker Page!

I made a snowfall tracker page! I had snowfall information, but it was only for me. I decided to release it to my dedicated readers and viewers so that we can compare our totals to what was predicted, or compare them to different locations! You can access it regularly like the way you can access other pages, it should appear on the top right, right below the "Search this blog" tool. Read the page for more information. I also published my winter forecasts post! Go check it out.

The Winter Forecasts

The Snowfall Tracker

The New Weather Pattern For The Entire USA

Winter Forecasts 2020-2021

 These are the winter forecasts for this winter! This post got delayed by a long time, and I sincerely apologize for that. I have been working on this post since November, but never decided to finish it. Now it's 2021, and the first significant winter snowfall has fallen already (4 inches of snow w/o sleet, 4.25 inches with some ice). However, other than that there has been nothing. These maps can still somewhat hold up. I hope you enjoy! Sorry if it seems rushed, I tried to wrap everything as fast as I could.

WUSA 9:

Most of MoCo is in the 10-20" snow range, and the most northern is in the 20-30", and the very southern part is in the 2-10" snow range. They predict a below-average snowfall season this year. However, places more north and west will see snow totals close to average snowfall. The reason why they think this is because this year its a La Nina. This is not good for snow lovers because this is what a La Nina does(in their own words):

"The northern branch of the Jet Stream, the storm track, is forced north of the Mid-Atlantic taking the storms to our west, which draws up warm air from the south resulting in rain and not snow. Snowstorms must track south and east to hold in the cold air."

For Bethesda, they predict 13" of snow(avg = 19"), and for Dulles(closest to the amounts the northern part of the county gets), they predict 18" of snow, when the average is 23". So their range is 11-22 inches of snow for the whole county. That's below average. However, they are saying we WILL get more snow than last year. They also predict above-average temps as well. We will still get arctic outbreaks time to time though. They predict that the first measurable snow will be on Dec. 16. 

FOX 5 DC:

The Fox 5 map shows 12-24 inches of snow for the upper half of our county, while the lower half is in the 7-17 inches of snow range. This means that even if you are in the 7-17 inches of snow range, you could potentially see more snow than someone in the 12-24 inches of snow range(unlikely though), because you could see 17 inches while they could 15 inches, for example. Like the other forecasts, they predict a snowier winter compared to last year's, but still below average, and above average temperatures.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 predicts a below-average snowfall this year. They say that we will have above-average temps this year, and the main reason we aren't getting as much snow as we used to, is because of climate change and the warm winters. In Maryland, winter is the season that is warming the most, according to NBC 4. They also said that we will have a La Nina winter, which is not a good setup for snowfall. The southern part of MoCo(1/3 of MoCo) is in the 4-10" snowfall range. The other parts of MoCo are in the 7-15" snow range. For MoCo, according to this map, I would say its range is from 5-15 inches of snow.

"Over the last 20 winters, 13 have had below-average snow levels," says Doug Kammerer. "The truth is, we are just getting less and less snow around here due to climate change and warmer winters," says NBC 4. NBC 4 says for some actual snow, we need cold air, but its all locked up in the north.

ABC 7:

ABC7 is forecasting below-normal snowfall this year. About 2/5 of the county(southern part) are in the 3-13 inches of snow range, while the other 3/5 are in the 8-18" of snow range. For our county, I would say we will be seeing 6-14" of snow this year. They also predict a La Nina, which is not great if you want an average amount of snow.

If you look at the chart closely, you can see that after 2010, the annual snow in D.C has been reducing by a lot. There are spikes here and there, but for the most part, they have been starting to go down. The main reason for that would be of warming temps during winter. For temps this year, they predict it to be above average. They see an season cold snap which will make December the coolest month compared to the average temps during winter. This increases the chance of having a white Christmas in Maryland/MoCo/DC (8-20% through MD). They don't expect low temps to go in the single digits or lower, for DC at least. They expect 11-14 degrees to be the coldest of the season, if we even get there. Personally, I feel the northern side of MoCo might be able to touch the surface of single digits, if it even gets that cold. 

My Prediction:

So what do I think? I personally agree with all of these maps, and predict a below-average winter, in terms of snowfall. I also think that it won't be too much below average, so like 1-3 inches below the average snowfall, and there will be more snowfall than last year. Temperatures will be above-average, this has been a trend for the past 5 years. Don't expect the most wonderland-like winter, but also don't expect a barren winter, where it's mostly dry of snow. 2021 Update: With the new pattern that has gotten the weather community on the east coast hyped for some crazy winter weather, I actually predict an above average winter, in terms of snowfall. We haven't seen this type of pattern in quite a while. Read more about it here: https://mcpsweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-forecasts-2020-2021.html. I think that we can see some good winter storms this year, but you never know. Also, I am thinking, from next year onward, to create my own winter forecast maps, so comment on what you think of it! Should I make them, or should I do something else? Let me know. Thank you always, for the incredible support you have given. It really helps me to make the best posts I can.

A new year, a new pattern, and a new storm potential!

Read the summary down below if you don't want to read the whole article; this weather news impacts people as far south as Florida and Texas. The first part is for DMV readers, though.

Happy new year to everyone! Hopefully, we can put back 2020 and move on. As the new year has come, we also have a chance of some snow, on Tuesday, and then something else to watch, during the time period of January 8th.

This tweet from the Capital Weather Gang says the chances for over an inch of snow (SPI) is 1/10, and the chances are rising. The Tuesday snowflakes part of the tweet is nothing too crazy to look forward to, but it is the last part of the tweet that is interesting, "next week as the pattern becomes friendlier for snow." 

This is the part that is for all readers, including the ones that aren't located in the DMV.

The pattern is important for winter weather, as it can decide how much moisture or cold air we get. Last year, we had the moisture but were just lacking the cold air. In the past 5 years, we haven't really gotten any storm that was crazy(With the exception of the 2015-2016 winter and maybe the 2018-2019 winter). This winter, for the entire U.S(as far as I am concerned), is a La Nina winter, which isn't good for snow in our area, because of the warm waters RIGHT next to the Atlantic. When the moisture comes(precip), there is warm air in place and there is rain. Right after, there is cold air, but no moisture. However, we can still see some above-average snowfall, even in a La Nina.

This map shows the pattern that will be coming in the next few days(Credit to Nikhil Trivedi for getting this picture, the picture was taken from his tweet.) If you don't understand this at all(like I do), the blueish colors represent the cold air. Due to anomalous ridging(which means that all of the warm air is in the Arctic air, or at least I think so), the cold air gets displaced and put to the south(Mid-Atlantic and interior southeast), which means we get cold air(certain about the pattern bringing cold air to us).  This means that places like Florida and Georgia could see some significant snow and winter weather! This is the same type of pattern that occurred during the epic and awesome winter of 2009-2010, where D.C alone almost measured 5 feet of snow and is the winter where we got the most snowfall recorded. (The interior Northeast didn't get much snow though that year). We got big, huge snowstorms and blizzards, that occurred next to each other(These storms were close to as big as the blizzard of 2016!). This could finally bring us the winter that we snow lovers in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast have been waiting for for a long time. These kinds of storms and patterns could close schools, even through virtual learning! This is one of the most exciting things about winter weather I haven't seen in a LONG time. I know I am hyping this too much, but we have everything in place! Now... we just wait. The potential storm on January 8th is the first storm in this pattern. 

This picture, taken by Matthew Cappucci(a meteorologist for the Capital Weather Gang), explains this pattern much better. This shows that in the Northeast + Mid-Atlantic(most of it), there is increased winter potential for some good storms, and as the picture above also shows, cold air locked into most of Pennsylvania and down to include most of the southeastern and central USA. In the interior southeast(Georgia, Arkansas), there is also an increased severe weather potential for you guys(thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc.). And in the west coast, and the upper Midwest, the temperatures will be above average. There's also an active storm track coming, which is why we have a good bet on some good winter weather. Our area is above the storm track, which is good, since it means that we will be in the storm track. I will be watching that Jan 8-9 storm, and making posts about it soon.

Summary:

If you didn't read the entire article and just want a summary, there's a pattern in place for our area that will lock in cold air for the Mid Atlantic, the Southeast, and a good chunk of the central US. There will be increased winter potential for the Northeast and increased severe potential in the interior Southeast. The upper midwest and west coast will see above-average temperatures. The DMV could see some snowflakes on Tuesday, and there's a bigger storm on Friday-Saturday that will be the first storm of this new pattern. Right now, snow lovers around the east coast are rejoicing. Thank you for reading!

White Christmas Update

So, nothing has really changed for the white Christmas possibility. We won't see over an inch of snow(unless you live far north and west or in the mountains), so we won't have an official white Christmas. However, today is going to be crazy in terms of weather. Right now, in the morning, there are just mild showers(rain showers). As the day keeps going, the rain becomes heavier, and we will start to see thunderstorms, some even severe. We will start to see downpours, that could possibly lead to flash flooding. We could even see some tornadoes in areas. However,  the most likely, and most concerning issue, will be damaging winds(40mph+ possible) and flooding. Our area is under a flash flood watch, which means we could see some dangerous flooding. When we go through the night hours, the severe, rainy weather will start to wrap up as temperatures start to drastically drop. And that folks, is our chance to see some snow. The more west and north you are, the more snow you will see, because of that cold front pushing through faster. And herein lies another big concern: Black Ice. It will have rained a lot by the time temps start to become colder, and there will be enough water on everything that there will be a flash freeze. What about the snow? Snow will easily start to stick as the temps drop. There won't be much snow, as I said before, in terms of accumulations. Some areas in our county may see a coating/dusting, but that's about it. The snow may continue into the morning hours of Christmas, but will most likely wrap up by the afternoon. For the week or so, it's going to be very cold. These are below-average temperatures for December and will feel even colder because we have felt a lot of above-average winter temps in the past 4-6 years(more than average or below average). The only danger I would say for Christmas would be the black ice, other than that I think it will be fine, at least weather-wise. Merry Christmas!

White Christmas Possibility?

 Recently, there has been a lot of talk going around about a white Christmas. This is... a pretty rare thing to happen in the D.C area, let alone DC. I think the last white Christmas in our area was in 2009/2010(excluding the mountains). I didn't want to post about this chance because I didn't want to hype everyone up, since a white Christmas is a very hard thing to bet upon. However, there is a decent chance that we will see snow fall on Friday(December 25th). Stickage will be difficult with highs in the 60s on Christmas Eve, so that's why an official white Christmas will be hard(1+ inches of snow). We could see a dusting in our northern areas, but that's about it in terms of accumulation. 

And some other good news: We have an active pattern for the month of January. We have frequent storm chances separated by cold(?), dry winter days. That means that we could see some good snow in January! 

End of Storm

Now that the storm has ended, and our backend snow has ended too, I got a storm total of 4.25 inches. I heard that other people in MoCo got 1-3 inches, some getting 4. However, areas north and west got hit with the jackpot. I heard people getting 7-9 inches of snow, and some even getting over a foot. This storm wasn't a bust or disappointing, at least for me, because I had gotten 4+ inches. However, right now, it is so, so, dangerous outside. On a normal day, I would predict 3 snowflakes, due to how icy and slushy it is everywhere in the county. Snowplows came to my neighborhood over 8 times, and they got stuck one time. It is so slippery and icy outside, and the snow isn't much better too. Imagine a sandwich. The snow is the bread, both on the bottom and on top, and in the middle of the snow sandwich, there was sleet and ice. Cleanup will be very difficult, and temps aren't supposed to climb the upper 30's. And the regular rain washed away all pre-preparations(like salt and brine), so in places where the roads weren't supposed to be slick, they are now.

Overall, this storm was more of a mix for us than a snow event. However, in New York and New Jersey, it's really coming down there. I heard that they were expected to get over a foot of snow, some areas potentially getting over 18-24 inches. But for December, this was a good winter precipitation event! We don't usually see this kind of setup or this type of snow for December. The cause for this is that December is supposed to be the coldest month compared to its average temps. I am not saying that December is colder than January or February, January will be colder than December and will have better snow events. But compared to their averages, December is the month that is the most below average. What a great punch to the snow season! 4.25 inches so far. This is almost the same amount of snow I got totally from last year.

Snow Reports and Backend Snow

UPDATE: The backend snow is starting to push in as temps start to drop.  Our surface low is pulling away, which means that we should be cold enough to support snow/sleet. Read down below for more info.

What Happened in This Storm

This snowstorm started around 9 AM then the snow rate really started to pick up and become heavy at around 10:30 AM and lasted until 12:00-3:00 before the snow turned into a mix. It's now a mix for almost all of the county. So before the mix started, I measured about 4 inches of snow in Gaithersburg, and I have heard a range from 1-3+ inches of snow in MoCo. There is now freezing rain outside my window, and if it's raining but is below 32 degrees, that means that it is freezing rain. When I went outside, the conditions were so bad. There was a mess of ice, snow, and slush everywhere on the roads, even though snowplows and other help came in my neighborhood over 6 times. The plows got stuck at one point, but it was snowing so hard that the help eventually became useless(0.5+ inches of snow per hour) The ground is super slippery and dangerous, and objects that were outside were very slippery. Ice has become a huge concern now, and even after a lot of us switch to rain, a lot of us will switch back to a mix/snow, and temps will drop below 32 for EVERYONE, causing a massive and dangerous refreeze. Please do not travel unless it's necessary. If this was a normal day, a lot of buildings would be shut down. There is also a flood watch in effect for southern MoCo, as everything melting plus with rain will cause major issues with flooding. I have never seen this before in a winter storm. Temps are hovering around freezing as well, so it's very messy.

Backend Snow: 

Models are showing some backend winter precip, for Wednesday night and early Thursday AM, which is good for snow lovers like me, because snow will accumulate faster, due to low temps and no to little sun angle(it's night what do you expect?). If what they show happens, and the rain/snow line moves east/south, we could get 1-4 extra inches of snow, however, the models are showing more sleet than snow. We will see. The rain/snow line, according to the models, will more likely move east than south, which is still good.