Winter Outlook 2023-24

full 36 page read/analysis: https://tinyurl.com/223zv9ec

Analogs:

Top ENSO analogs: 1957/1965/1991*

MEI Analogs: 1986/2009

Top Pacific Analogs: 1965/1972/1995

Polar Analogs: 1957/1965/1987/2009

EMI/Orientation Analogs: 1982/1991*/2015

1957/1965/1972/1987/2009 are my highest weighted analogs

DJF Weighted Temp/Precip Composite

The ENSO will likely end up as a basin-wide(with more of a western lean like 1957/65 as Nino 4 warms and Nino 1+2 cools), with periods of Modoki forcing. I do not think that this is a wall to wall cold and snowy winter, but rather bouts of favorable patterns/timeframes, with most of the bulk being in the second half of the winter(Feb). I think we overall end up N-slightly AN for the winter, with Feb being BN, and Dec slightly AN, with Jan being around N. There’s too much variability and unpredictability to pinpoint specific temp anomalies for those specific months, but I still think we overall end up N-slightly AN.

Snowfall:
 

The range this winter is extremely large, with the maximum high-end potential being a top 5 winter or another horrible, low-snow winter. Strong+ ninos tend to be very boom or bust winters. With the exception of 1994/95, every analog year I had was either under 10” or over 30”. As I mentioned before, the main thing that will determine the fate of this winter is the polar domain. With the -QBO/++AMO, as well as bouts of favorable forcing setting up at times, the polar domain is looking good for this winter. While we have a -PDO, the strong El Nino will win out and override the state. The warmest anomalies being over and east of the dateline is a very good thing and very different to the forcing we’ve been seeing over the past few years. The active STJ should provide us with plenty of storm opportunities and ample moisture, snow or rain regardless. Thus, this is also the best chance since 2016 for a HECS/KU. Even if we don’t get a KU, the active STJ provides many opportunities for multiple SECS/MECS. 

That is why I went well AN for snowfall for this year. I doubt we see a near-normal year; either much BN or much AN. There is a lot of potential this year, and as of now, things seem to be looking good. The warm Atlantic will also provide extra moisture for storms. Going around the mid-range this year for snowfall doesn’t appear to be a good idea. This year definitely won’t be that cold overall, but we don’t need extreme back-to-back cold anomalies to get snowfall. All we need is one wave to time up right. With a Nino, the Pacific shouldn’t be too much of a problem this year. ENSO influences PDO, not the other way around; especially at this strength. 

I also went for a more N/S gradient in my map than a W/E gradient. The big nino years here had a more north-south orientation for the gradient than a west-east(obviously being more west still favors more). Although we’ll see some CAD storms, especially earlier in the season, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing too many of them overall. I think the PNA this year will average out to be neutral-slightly positive, with the western ridge flexing at times, increasing in frequency as the winter progresses. This should favor more Miller A/C type storms, which generally aren’t as W/E gradient oriented. 

Given how things appear to be progressing, and the best-looking year in several years, I believe that going bullish on a high snowfall winter is the right decision to make.

Summary:
 

Overall, I am sold for a well AN snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, and BN for NE. The strong Nino and STJ should heavily favor the MA/SE, and lead to suppression issues not much further north. ++AMO favors further S blocking, which in turn favors a further southern displaced track. Along with the STJ and other factors, the main focus of this winter on the EC will likely be the MA.

 

December, although not favored by Nino climatology, doesn’t look that bad anymore, and might be AN in snowfall, with a -NAO setting up for the early part of the month, and forcing returning to favorable phases by mid-late month. Although I expect it to still end up slightly AN, there’s definitely the possibility of the month ending up near normal. We should have a generally transient warmup in mid-Dec before returning to a favorable period later in the month. Although climo before mid-Dec is at best dubious, it is certainly possible to get some events, especially with the pattern setting up. For the month, I could see us getting a few minor events, and maybe even a moderate event. The very end of the month seems to be the best time period for something. I do not expect the PNA to be overall positive, but we could get a few transient +PNA flexes, along with HL blocking around this time. HL blocking setting up in December; and an -NAO is a very good sign for the winter and for higher-magnitude blocks to set up later in the winter. 

 

January looks to be alright, with the favorable forcing from late Dec continuing into the early part of the month. As stated previously, this month will generally be transitional, but the pattern at the start of the month will remain favorable. Thus, after early Jan, it appears to be quiet for a bit, until the end of Jan, where the pattern will become favorable again and continue into Feb. This is also when peak climo starts. Again we might see some +PNA flexes, but it should remain generally variable throughout the month. We should end up around N for this month temp-wise, and snowfall.

 

February will easily be the best part of this winter, with everything lining up: frequent +PNA flexes, favorable forcing setting up, HL blocking, active STJ, and overall peak climo should make Feb exciting. This isn’t too much of a surprise though, as Nino climatology heavily is backloaded and protrudes Feb as the coldest, snowiest month. We should definitely end up BN for this month in temps and AN in snowfall.

 

As for indices:

 

• PDO: slightly BN; -0.4 to -0.9

• AO: slightly BN; -0.2 to -0.5

• PNA: N-slightly AN; -0.1 to +0.3

• NAO: N; -0.2 to +0.2

• ENSO peak: 1.7-2.0(under super)

• ENSO Orientation: West-Tilted Basin-Wide
  
   

overall, should be a fun winter to track w/ the first real nino since 2015

 

My Winter Forecast for 2021-22

 If you've recently looked up winter forecasts for this year for DC... they tend to be not snowy at all leaning towards below average. The best forecasts for our area would be NBC 4's forecast and Justin Berk's forecast(Above Average Snow). Most forecasts went with below average snow due to the -PDO and la nina which typically result in non-snowy winters for our area. However, I don't think we will see below average snow for a number of reasons.

My prediction this winter is the east coast will see average - above average snowfall this winter. For temperatures, I assume that with the cold and stormy pattern that for the first half of winter, temperatures will be below average.

Last year, the WPO was positive, and for almost the whole year. Even with the -NAO and -AO, it wasn't cold enough for storms to stay all snow for DC and even me, much more northwest of DC.
 

I found out what we were missing last year: the -WPO and the -EPO.
 

This year, the WPO looks to be negative for a while, and this will keep the southeast ridge away. A negative EPO plus with a negative WPO will benefit cold and snowy weather.These teleconnections are good for colder weather, and more storm systems(Colder Weather + Stormy Pattern = Snowy). And the NAO and AO. They help a lot but, for DC/Philly in a La Nina, Pacific Oscillations are stronger drivers for teleconnections. We had a good amount of cold air last year, but we would never stay all snow/mostly all snow because of something going wrong. Viola is one of the prime examples of this. We were below freezing the entire day of the storm, BUT the warm nose was too much. Mixing was expected, yes, but the storm was practically all sleet/ice. Snow was able to break through the end of the storm, but by then, most of the precip was gone so it didn't accumulate. And let's not forget the negative easterly QBO; we didnt have that last year. Areas that were more north and west in the northeast benefited a lot from these snowstorms: as it was cold enough in the atmosphere to stay all snow for most of the time which resulted in huge snow totals. Sabillasville got more than 2 feet of snow from Orlena(Town in very northern Frederick County, MD). For areas heavily north and west of the I-95 corridor, 2021 was an amazing winter, as they didn't have as much mixing to worry about and it was colder to allow for more snow with the precipitation amount.

And about the -PDO... It actually seems to be flipping positive which is good for colder weather in ethe east. The la nina is also moderate, which is the best type of la nina for snow. December looks to be rather snowy and cold. I won't say anything yet, but the chances of a white Christmas are a little bit higher than other La Nina years. 

 I don't have enough time to make a map but here's what I'm thinking. 35-100+ inches in the mountains. Far northwest suburbs(Frederick, Winchester, Westminister and north + west) might see maybe around 30-50 inches(45+ inch totals in higher elevations).  Northwest suburbs(Germantown, Damascus, Clarksburg, Leesburg, etc.) might see 25-40 inches of snow. The I-95 corridor could see around 15-24 inches of snow. As for Southern Maryland and Delmarva... maybe 5-15 inches of snow.

 

December is predicted to be cold and snowy due to pattern looking very condusive for snow. January seems to be mild, maybe the first part of the month could be decent enough for snow. I don't expect too much from here but there could be some snow events (rather small). As for February and March... this is where it gets a little bit complicated. The la nina could start weakening and go towards a netural pattern, this isn't certain yet. If it does though, global weather patterns such as MJO and QBO will start to affect us more and we could see a snowy end to the winter. We could see quite a few snow days this year...

 

Winter Storm Names for 2021-2022 Season Announced

Good evening everyone! The names have been announced a while ago, but just now I saw it. The Weather Channel has released their winter storm names for this winter season! The theme this year is that "old names are now new again". Again, this is unofficial, and not affiliated with NWS. A lot of people think that calling winter storms with names are a bad idea, but I personally don't see the harm in it! What do you think of the names this year?

Massive Cooldown for the Start of Fall + Winter News

 Have you felt it yet? The nights are getting colder, average temps are decreasing, and some areas have some leaves changing already. Winter is coming. For the start of astrological fall, we are going to have a massive cooldown. And it is going to last into October.

And also... the elephant in the room. Winter 2021-22. Although I think its still too early at the time of writing to make a full-on winter forecast for our region(as of September 18, 2021), there are some really encouraging signs for winter enthusiasts. I'll explain more later in this article.

But first, the cooldown. This is going to be happening soon. From tomorrow onwards from the twenty-third, the entire country is going to go through a cooldown.

As you can see, the blue moves across the country and is in Maryland for a while. Then, another cold front, that is much stronger, and lasts much longer, comes in! The GFS is showing cold front after cold front(blue = below average temperatures). Temps in the 40's(lows for the most part) and in the 50's(highs for the most part) can be expected.

This is the same time period, but this parameter shows how much below/above average temps are compared to normal temps for this time of year. And as you can see, it is showing dark blue, even purple and pink in some areas! This means that this cold front will bring much below average temps. However, since it is October, it won't be that cold, but it will still be very cold for fall standards, not so much for winter standards.

Now the winter. I won't say too much, but I think we are going to get a lot of snow this winter. I could be wrong, but from the info we have right now, this winter is going to seem epic. 

First of all. 2016 blizzard. Every 6/7 years we get a huge storm/blizzard. 1996 to 2003 to 2010 to 2016 to 2022?? The trend has been switching to every 6 years now, and its definitely possible that we will get a really big storm this year. These storms are enough to get almost every place in our region above average in terms of snow.

Second of all, the polar vortex and teleconnections. I'll talk about the polar vortex first. We are expected to have a stratospheric polar vortex this year. What does this mean? This usually means more arctic blasts, and a weaker polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex actually means more cold temperatures for the Lower 48, because if the polar vortex is strong, it contains all of the air in Greenland and the North Pole. If its weaker, the polar vortex's cold air goes down south, which is what we want. 

Image from:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-returns-usa-europe-winter-2021-2022-fa/

This shows the polar vortex during February. As you can see, there is cold air over the northeast(including Maryland).

And the next part: the QBO. The QBO is expected to be in an easterly phase, which is good for winter lovers. It usually means colder winters for the USA, a weaker jetstream, and sudden warming events in the stratosphere, which weakens the polar vortex. And for the cherry on top, we are expected to be in a weak La Nina this year, which actually enhances the effect of the QBO. It looks like we may have a strong negative AO which was the same thing that we had in the historic winter of 2010, where almost 5 feet of snow fell on the nation's capital.

But again, this is still far out. I expect to start seeing more winter forecasts specifically for our area around late October-early November. By then we will know more details. This could change drastically... but as of now its looking amazing for snow. Hopefully it still holds up! That's all for now, thanks for reading!

I made a Snowfall Tracker Page!

I made a snowfall tracker page! I had snowfall information, but it was only for me. I decided to release it to my dedicated readers and viewers so that we can compare our totals to what was predicted, or compare them to different locations! You can access it regularly like the way you can access other pages, it should appear on the top right, right below the "Search this blog" tool. Read the page for more information. I also published my winter forecasts post! Go check it out.

The Winter Forecasts

The Snowfall Tracker

The New Weather Pattern For The Entire USA

Winter Forecasts 2020-2021

 These are the winter forecasts for this winter! This post got delayed by a long time, and I sincerely apologize for that. I have been working on this post since November, but never decided to finish it. Now it's 2021, and the first significant winter snowfall has fallen already (4 inches of snow w/o sleet, 4.25 inches with some ice). However, other than that there has been nothing. These maps can still somewhat hold up. I hope you enjoy! Sorry if it seems rushed, I tried to wrap everything as fast as I could.

WUSA 9:

Most of MoCo is in the 10-20" snow range, and the most northern is in the 20-30", and the very southern part is in the 2-10" snow range. They predict a below-average snowfall season this year. However, places more north and west will see snow totals close to average snowfall. The reason why they think this is because this year its a La Nina. This is not good for snow lovers because this is what a La Nina does(in their own words):

"The northern branch of the Jet Stream, the storm track, is forced north of the Mid-Atlantic taking the storms to our west, which draws up warm air from the south resulting in rain and not snow. Snowstorms must track south and east to hold in the cold air."

For Bethesda, they predict 13" of snow(avg = 19"), and for Dulles(closest to the amounts the northern part of the county gets), they predict 18" of snow, when the average is 23". So their range is 11-22 inches of snow for the whole county. That's below average. However, they are saying we WILL get more snow than last year. They also predict above-average temps as well. We will still get arctic outbreaks time to time though. They predict that the first measurable snow will be on Dec. 16. 

FOX 5 DC:

The Fox 5 map shows 12-24 inches of snow for the upper half of our county, while the lower half is in the 7-17 inches of snow range. This means that even if you are in the 7-17 inches of snow range, you could potentially see more snow than someone in the 12-24 inches of snow range(unlikely though), because you could see 17 inches while they could 15 inches, for example. Like the other forecasts, they predict a snowier winter compared to last year's, but still below average, and above average temperatures.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 predicts a below-average snowfall this year. They say that we will have above-average temps this year, and the main reason we aren't getting as much snow as we used to, is because of climate change and the warm winters. In Maryland, winter is the season that is warming the most, according to NBC 4. They also said that we will have a La Nina winter, which is not a good setup for snowfall. The southern part of MoCo(1/3 of MoCo) is in the 4-10" snowfall range. The other parts of MoCo are in the 7-15" snow range. For MoCo, according to this map, I would say its range is from 5-15 inches of snow.

"Over the last 20 winters, 13 have had below-average snow levels," says Doug Kammerer. "The truth is, we are just getting less and less snow around here due to climate change and warmer winters," says NBC 4. NBC 4 says for some actual snow, we need cold air, but its all locked up in the north.

ABC 7:

ABC7 is forecasting below-normal snowfall this year. About 2/5 of the county(southern part) are in the 3-13 inches of snow range, while the other 3/5 are in the 8-18" of snow range. For our county, I would say we will be seeing 6-14" of snow this year. They also predict a La Nina, which is not great if you want an average amount of snow.

If you look at the chart closely, you can see that after 2010, the annual snow in D.C has been reducing by a lot. There are spikes here and there, but for the most part, they have been starting to go down. The main reason for that would be of warming temps during winter. For temps this year, they predict it to be above average. They see an season cold snap which will make December the coolest month compared to the average temps during winter. This increases the chance of having a white Christmas in Maryland/MoCo/DC (8-20% through MD). They don't expect low temps to go in the single digits or lower, for DC at least. They expect 11-14 degrees to be the coldest of the season, if we even get there. Personally, I feel the northern side of MoCo might be able to touch the surface of single digits, if it even gets that cold. 

My Prediction:

So what do I think? I personally agree with all of these maps, and predict a below-average winter, in terms of snowfall. I also think that it won't be too much below average, so like 1-3 inches below the average snowfall, and there will be more snowfall than last year. Temperatures will be above-average, this has been a trend for the past 5 years. Don't expect the most wonderland-like winter, but also don't expect a barren winter, where it's mostly dry of snow. 2021 Update: With the new pattern that has gotten the weather community on the east coast hyped for some crazy winter weather, I actually predict an above average winter, in terms of snowfall. We haven't seen this type of pattern in quite a while. Read more about it here: https://mcpsweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-forecasts-2020-2021.html. I think that we can see some good winter storms this year, but you never know. Also, I am thinking, from next year onward, to create my own winter forecast maps, so comment on what you think of it! Should I make them, or should I do something else? Let me know. Thank you always, for the incredible support you have given. It really helps me to make the best posts I can.

A new year, a new pattern, and a new storm potential!

Read the summary down below if you don't want to read the whole article; this weather news impacts people as far south as Florida and Texas. The first part is for DMV readers, though.

Happy new year to everyone! Hopefully, we can put back 2020 and move on. As the new year has come, we also have a chance of some snow, on Tuesday, and then something else to watch, during the time period of January 8th.

This tweet from the Capital Weather Gang says the chances for over an inch of snow (SPI) is 1/10, and the chances are rising. The Tuesday snowflakes part of the tweet is nothing too crazy to look forward to, but it is the last part of the tweet that is interesting, "next week as the pattern becomes friendlier for snow." 

This is the part that is for all readers, including the ones that aren't located in the DMV.

The pattern is important for winter weather, as it can decide how much moisture or cold air we get. Last year, we had the moisture but were just lacking the cold air. In the past 5 years, we haven't really gotten any storm that was crazy(With the exception of the 2015-2016 winter and maybe the 2018-2019 winter). This winter, for the entire U.S(as far as I am concerned), is a La Nina winter, which isn't good for snow in our area, because of the warm waters RIGHT next to the Atlantic. When the moisture comes(precip), there is warm air in place and there is rain. Right after, there is cold air, but no moisture. However, we can still see some above-average snowfall, even in a La Nina.

This map shows the pattern that will be coming in the next few days(Credit to Nikhil Trivedi for getting this picture, the picture was taken from his tweet.) If you don't understand this at all(like I do), the blueish colors represent the cold air. Due to anomalous ridging(which means that all of the warm air is in the Arctic air, or at least I think so), the cold air gets displaced and put to the south(Mid-Atlantic and interior southeast), which means we get cold air(certain about the pattern bringing cold air to us).  This means that places like Florida and Georgia could see some significant snow and winter weather! This is the same type of pattern that occurred during the epic and awesome winter of 2009-2010, where D.C alone almost measured 5 feet of snow and is the winter where we got the most snowfall recorded. (The interior Northeast didn't get much snow though that year). We got big, huge snowstorms and blizzards, that occurred next to each other(These storms were close to as big as the blizzard of 2016!). This could finally bring us the winter that we snow lovers in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast have been waiting for for a long time. These kinds of storms and patterns could close schools, even through virtual learning! This is one of the most exciting things about winter weather I haven't seen in a LONG time. I know I am hyping this too much, but we have everything in place! Now... we just wait. The potential storm on January 8th is the first storm in this pattern. 

This picture, taken by Matthew Cappucci(a meteorologist for the Capital Weather Gang), explains this pattern much better. This shows that in the Northeast + Mid-Atlantic(most of it), there is increased winter potential for some good storms, and as the picture above also shows, cold air locked into most of Pennsylvania and down to include most of the southeastern and central USA. In the interior southeast(Georgia, Arkansas), there is also an increased severe weather potential for you guys(thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc.). And in the west coast, and the upper Midwest, the temperatures will be above average. There's also an active storm track coming, which is why we have a good bet on some good winter weather. Our area is above the storm track, which is good, since it means that we will be in the storm track. I will be watching that Jan 8-9 storm, and making posts about it soon.

Summary:

If you didn't read the entire article and just want a summary, there's a pattern in place for our area that will lock in cold air for the Mid Atlantic, the Southeast, and a good chunk of the central US. There will be increased winter potential for the Northeast and increased severe potential in the interior Southeast. The upper midwest and west coast will see above-average temperatures. The DMV could see some snowflakes on Tuesday, and there's a bigger storm on Friday-Saturday that will be the first storm of this new pattern. Right now, snow lovers around the east coast are rejoicing. Thank you for reading!

Winter Forecasts for the 2019-2020 Winter!(snowfall)(FIRST POST OF 2020!)

Yes, this is the moment you have been waiting for, the WINTER FORECASTS FOR 2019-2020! In my opinion, these forecasts predict good snow for this year(average to above average), but others predict below average.

Here is FOX 5's forecast:               

 

Fox 5 predicts 25-35 inches for the upper 1/3 of the county and 15-25 inches for the other 2/3 of the county. The more north you live in the county, the more snow you will get(I would say we are in the 20-30 inches range).

 

   

Here is NBC 4's winter forecast for this year:

  NBC 4's forecast is a jackpot for snow. Southern MoCo will get 18-26"(amounts to the higher end) and Middle and Northern MoCo will get 28-37"(that is a lot!). According to Doug Kammerer, he is going for about 50% more snowfall than average. "I think we’re going to see a couple of pretty good storms, meaning 6 to 10" snowstorms or 6 to 12" snowstorms," said Doug.

Here is WUSA 9's forecast:

 WUSA 9 expects a La Nada winter this season. This means that there could be a lot of snow, or very little snow. They are saying that cities that are in the beltway(basically the southern half of MoCo) will receive below-average snow, but since we are on the edges, I will say that the Southern half of MoCo gets 1-3 inches below average, probably less than that. This winter map is predicting is average to above-average snowfall this year(about). The other half of MoCo should be getting above-average snow. We are in the 10-30" range(15-30 is better estimated for the whole county).

Here is ABC 7's forecast:

This shows awfully below-average snow for our county. 7-22 inches?! We get can 7 inches and more in 1 snowstorm, this is the forecast that is the least optimistic. Most of MoCo is in the 12-22" area, while the other part of MoCo is in the 7-17" area. This forecast is extremely below average, but not as bad as the 2017 and 2018 winter.

The Capital Weather Gang's Forecast:

According to Capital Weather Gang, the 2nd half of winter(very late January to end of winter)(late March) will be harsh(lots of snow and cold temps) after a gentle start(non-significant snow events)(4">)(normal temps). That means the whole month of February(and early March) will be the prime time for snowstorms. Anyways, 55% of MoCo is in the 14-24" range(places 1000'< have a higher chance of getting 24"+) and the other northern 45% is in the 22-34" area(areas 1000'< will most likely have 34"+ of snow). Montgomery County(specifically) will get 15-25" of snow. This map shows around average to slightly below average snowfall. Now, let's look at the average of these maps!

Fox 5: 15-35" of snow.

NBC 4: 18-37" of snow.

WUSA 9: 19-30" of snow. 

ABC 7: 7-22" of snow.

Capital Weather Gang: 15-25" of snow.

AND THE AVERAGE OF THESE MAPS ARE... 14.8 inches- 29.8 inches of snow! Is this below average snow for MoCo. Above-average? The average amount of snow(for MoCo) is 16-27" of snow(Bethesda-Damascus)! So, the 2020 winter will have an average of 22.3" this year(snow amount most people will get). The average amount of snow is 21.5"(for the county as a whole)! So, the 2020 winter will have(according to these maps) will have above average snowfall(0.8" more!)!! WE WILL HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL! This is good if you are a snow lover and/or you want more snow days(and delays). NBC 4 has the most optimistic map for snowfall, while ABC 7 is the least optimistic map for snowfall. Overall, we will get(according to my predictions)(based on the maps) 3-7 snow days this year(we already had one)! Delays won't be predicted because delays depend on how much small snow events there are(Alberta clippers) and freezing rain(melts before 10:45 AM). There is no predictions for freezing rain, so it is way harder to predict. If I had to take a wild guess, I would say 5-13 delays this year, though I am pretty sure I will be wrong. We also have subzero temperatures and wind chills to deal with, so it makes it even harder for me to predict. This winter should be good, so stay tuned to my posts! Thanks for reading!