Hurricane Ida is expected to bring severe storms and tornadoes to the Mid-Atlantic. A good part of Maryland is in an Enhanced Risk(D2, as of 5 PM EDT), for a 10% tornado risk, which is a lot, especially for the Mid-Atlantic. There is also a significant(moderate, red) flooding threat for today and tomorrow. The timing of Ida is between today and Thursday morning.
As you can see, almost all of our region is in the red section, meaning a moderate risk of flash flooding. Areas in the red part can expect "numerous flash floods", with significant flash flooding events likely.
As you can see, for most of Maryland, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather. We usually only get slight/marginal risk, and an enhanced risk doesn't happen that often.
This is the tornado risk for our area(Green = 2%, Brown = 5%, Yellow = 10%). The chances don't seem that high, until you realize that the chances are for every location in those colors to see a tornado.
This is the wind chance. Areas in the yellow have a 15% chance of seeing 58 MPH winds or higher for every location in that yellow spot.
Instabillity tomorrow around the region will be 1500-2000 MLCAPE, which is more than enough to spawn tornadoes. There will also be a lot of shear(up to 70 kts of shear, with 80 kts in isolated areas). The sheer is enough for any thunderstorm updraft to have the potential to spawn a tornado.
TORNADO WARNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE! SEEK SHELTER IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE IN THE WARNING!
5:25 PM:
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for areas near the Mason-Dixon line. 60 MPH wind, quarter sized hail, and a tornado is all possible with this storm.
3:35 PM:
The threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds should start to increase slightly as the afternoon passes. "Low level shear / SRH remains sufficient to support some tornado threat." - SPC
3:20 PM:
Tornado warning for Allegany and Washington County until 3:45 PM EDT. Seek shelter in a basement or the lowest floor, with the least amount of windows(stay away from windows).
2:50 PM:
A recorded 78F dew point has been recorded in Baltimore and DC! This is a very rare event to get dew points this high(source: capital weather gang), and it means that the air is super moist and humid.
2:10 PM:
There is some signs of rotation in the storm near Ellicott City.
2:00 PM:
There is some rotation in the storm near Waterloo. I'll be keeping an eye on that.
1:50 PM:
It turns out that the best chance for tornadic activity is the I-95 area and east at this point(info from Capital Weather Gang).
1:25 PM:
As storms with heavy rainfall rates(some have rates of 1-2" per hour), conditions become more favorable for isolated, brief tornadoes.
Hello everyone! This is going to be the first weather post I'll be posting for the first time in a month. And to start it off, we are dealing with a tornado outbreak from the ghost of tropical depression Fred! Yes, you heard that right, a tornado outbreak. Veteran storm chaser, Reed Timmer has put our region in the "TORNADO OUTBREAK region".
Reed Timmer has made a premiere about the tornado outbreak for our area.
There is a tornado watch for our region until 8 PM. Small marble sized hail and 70 MPH wind gusts are possible, plus a few tornadoes. This event continues until 8 PM EDT.
There is also a flash flood watch for almost all of the region too, except for our southeastern areas. Rain may fall at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour, and storm totals in isolated areas may even reach up to 3 inches.
MODEL RUN: 15z HRRR
The HRRR shows 1000-2250 MLCAPE for Montgomery County, and up to 2500 MLCAPE for the rest of Maryland. This is more than enough to supply fuel for severe storms.(6PM Eastern).
The 15z HRRR shows around up to 35 kt of shear in Montgomery County, and around 40+ in some parts of Maryland. This is somewhat decent and can help make storms. 4 PM Eastern.
The 15z HRRR shows -5 to -8C of lift, which is a very good amount for storms to spawn.(3P Eastern)
The HRRR shows crazy dew ppoints, with up to 80F dew points in some of Maryland! Thats's crazy, and is very moist and humid for storms to form.
The SPC shows a slight risk for most of Maryland, with a 5% tornado chance for every location to see a tornado in the brown(top right) and in the bottom right, a chance for 58+ MPH winds for any location in the green.
Since this is my first post after a while, I'm not going to go too much into detail. I will update this post as new information comes in.
Hi guys! I haven't been posting for 5/6 weeks. Most of you already know the reason but for those that don't: I was on vacation on India for 3 weeks and was packing and getting ready to go to India before that. That's pretty much the reason. I'll start to post more now!
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