New Severe Thunderstorm Format Taking Effect Today

 

This will be a short post explaining the new format of severe thunderstorm warnings. They will now have impact based warning tags. A severe thunderstorm(regardless of rating) is a storm that produces 58 mph or gustier winds and/or 1" or larger hail. If a thunderstorm has 58-70 mph winds and/or 1-1.5 inch hail, there will be no new tag and it will not be sent out to the public in any different way compared to before April 28. If there are 70-80 mph winds and 1.75-2.5" hail, there will be a new tag to the warning: considerable damage threat. However, they will not be released to the public any differently compared to before April 28. If there are 80+ mph winds and 2.75" or greater sized hail, there will be a new tag on the warning: "Destructive Damage Threat". If this occurs, this will be released to the public through smartphones using the WEA(Wireless Emergency Alert) using the IPAWS(Integrated Public Alert and Warning System). This system will hopefully help people better understand the severity of the thunderstorm when it comes to them, and gives them a better incentive to act properly based on the situation. Thank you for reading, and I'll see you next post!

Severe Weather Risk Sunday

There is a severe weather threat for the entire DMV tomorrow, specifically in the afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging winds, but some mostly weak, isolated tornadoes and hail can't be ruled out of the question. 

As you can see, most of the DMV is under a slight risk, and the really northern part of the DMV are in a marginal risk. Just south of the DMV is an enhanced risk, where the risk for dangerous winds are higher. Let's look at the specific categories:

In the slight risk area(brown area), there is a 5% chance for a tornado to be on the ground 25 miles away from any given point in that area. This isn't the chance for at least one tornado to form, but the chances for any location 25 miles away from a given point to see a tornado. This isn't the main threat though, and the northwestern part of the DMV is in the 2% chance for any location 25 miles away from any point to see a tornado.

Most of the DMV is in the 15% chance for damaging winds, and a lot of it is also in the fence like area? What does that mean? It means that we have the chance to see really damaging winds(65+mph), and that there is a 10% or greater chance to see over 65 mph wind 25 miles from any given point in this hatched location. There is a 15% chance for any location in the yellow part to see 55-65+ mph winds 25 miles from any given point.

Most of the DMV is in the 5% chance to see hail 25 miles away from any given point. In the really NW regions of the DMV, there is less than a 5% chance.

HRRR sounding at 2pm EDT.

Ok, this might be scary when you see the "tor" under possible hazard time and something under the supercell category. Instability is not bad(500-750 j/kg); the shear is not too bad; lift is there; and the moisture is more on the bad side. But the sounding itself isn't good. Even if a tornado occured(unlikely), it would be very weak and short-lived. The main threat will just be damaging winds, and I don't think tornadoes will be a considerable threat. You should still prepare though.

The severe storms will be caused by an upper-level shortwave trough intensifies as it moves through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and as a surface cyclone deepens in Ontario/Quebec, a cold front moves east with it, which will help create storms in the southeast, Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic(paraphrased from the SPC). In the DMV(further north into the Mid-Atlantic) low-level wind fields will be stronger but buoyancy will be less, compared to the more southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic(Carolinas, Southern VA). Over 500 joules/kg MLCAPE will still exist and help the environment further support severe surface gusts, and if greater heating occurs in certain patches, the MLCAPE may get close to 1000 j/kg, and if this occurs, the threat for stronger, damaging winds will increase. Tornadoes are possible, but this far north it is doubtful due to low-level thermodynamics and storm-mode. (paraphrasing SPC). You do NOT want the sun to come out, because that will increase the MLCAPE, which the more there is, the more dangerous the severe weather will be. The timing will be around 10am - 8pm(general DMV). The main severe threat will be in the afternoon for everyone, but there might be some isolated severe weather after 4-6pm in some spots. I will make a nowcast post and give you live updates. I can't provide much more info since I want to put out accurate information and I don't know too much about severe weather, but as we get more outbreaks, I will learn more about severe weather and will be able to inform you more! 

Severe Weather and Snow Threat Thursday - Friday Update

We have a needed storm that is coming up tomorrow and will last into Friday afternoon before tapering off. And there is the potential for some snow as a secondary cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Other than the snow, why do I say this is well needed? Well, we haven't had much precipitation in the area since the end of February. Up to 2 inches of rain could fall in our region! This is well needed for plants to thrive. Although we aren't in a drought, it has still been a while, and it will be good for everyone. And, as you may have noticed by the title, there is the possibility for SEVERE WEATHER on Thursday! I am pretty sure you would have heard about the crazy and dangerous weather going on in the really southeastern part of the US.

A high risk and a 45% chance of a tornado occurring for any one location in that area are nuts! In those areas, significant strong tornadoes(EF2 and above) are likely. And on Thursday, there is a chance for some severe weather in our region; locally! I'll go above it below.

Our whole region is under some sort of color! For most of Maryland, some non-severe isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, in our western and especially southwestern areas, a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists. In our extreme far SW suburbs of the DMV, a slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists, including a small risk of an isolated tornado forming(2% - 5%). A marginal risk means that some severe storms could be spotty, but will be limited in duration or intensity. There is, and I cannot stress this, still a risk for tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail in areas in a marginal risk. It is just in those slight areas where more, stronger tornadoes, more widespread and damaging hail, and winds are likelier. The main reason why parts of our area are in the "marginal" zone is that there is mainly a risk for hail.  The biggest impacts are in the Carolinas, where widespread, damaging tornadoes, hail, and wind are expected. If your area is in any color on the SPC map or any specific place(s) I mentioned, get ready for dangerous severe weather. Make sure you have enough food and water to last for at least a week, have a shelter/safe spot in your house, and have a radio or some sort of device that can get up-to-date warnings and watches issued by the NWS.

Anyways, back to the snow aspect of this storm. We will start to switch over into wet snow in the early morning hours of Friday and will keep snowing until it starts to taper off. As you might have expected, areas north and west of MoCo will see more hours of snow. Over the past 2 days, the storm has been trending more south. As we switch over into the snow, it may be mixed with sleet/rain. However, as the cold front pushes SE, it should be primarily snowing if you live in MoCo, and generally most of the area. Winds may gust of to 20 mph, so conditions will get worse on Friday. The models have been doing some wacky stuff with the snow amounts though, and I will be looking at them regardless.

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows moderate-heavy rain before we start to switch over to snow, and then that snow band pushes southeast. However, around 8am Friday, I do want to point out something. It shows heavy snow in a lot of Southern Maryland. There is one thing wrong with it. If you look at the 540 blue line, it sets up right around Rockville(the thing about this line I will say now applies to all of the models). Generally, any area below that line(if they aren't bordering the blue line) will not be snow and instead sleet, or cold rain, since temps are above 32 at this time for most of the area(even for those who are above the blue line). This will cause an error in the snow totals, and since this model shows heavier precip in Southern MD, and shows it as snow, will cause a ridiculous uptick in snow totals. Take the snow maps I show with a grain of salt.

This snow map is utterly ridiculous. It shows up to 6 inches of snow in some areas of SoMD. That, will not happen. And even more stupid, is that almost Frederick county has no accumulating snow at all. Yeah, this won't be playing out at all. It shows a coating to a little over an inch of snow in MoCo, with the most snow somehow in SE MoCo. This will not happen.

GFS:

The GFS shows much heavier precip compared to the NAM. It shows heavy rain hitting us before that cold front moves down and switches us over into heavy snow, before eventually tapering off. Now, the GFS does a much better job than the NAM with its 540 blue line, as most areas that are below that blue line are shown as rain, and areas north are shown as snow. However, I still am a little bit skeptical of the snow map.

The GFS is much better than the NAM, but it still is a little bit ridiculous with the highest totals in our area being on eastern Anne Arundel and Northern Calvert County. In MoCo alone, a little less than an inch to a bit more than 2 inches is shown by the GFS. At least it shows more than an inch of snow in Washington and Frederick counties. Even though the GFS does show the heaviest precip once the cold front pushes down in Anne Arundel and Calvert Counties, and dynamic cooling will likely be there, I still think it's still wrong, as north and west areas will see the cold air that is required for wintry precip first, giving those more snow. They will also be able to maintain snow on the ground longer. However, it definitely is on to something with that area getting the most snow in our area, and it is something to watch. Either way, the highest snow totals from this storm north and west of Montgomery County. We want a stronger storm and not a weaker one, even if the jackpot totals(southern New England) aren't pushed south.

Euro:

The European shows heavy rain before the transition to snow as the cold front snow. However, it shows the heavy precip moving out of here before the cold front has come through our area enough to cause snow. It still shows us having some light-moderate snow, but it won't amount to much.

It shows up to a coating of snow, with the most snow in our region in our NW areas. Now, I think the European model is the most accurate out of all of the models in terms of where the highest totals will be; north and west of MoCo. I don't agree with how low they are though, I think the cold front will be pushing south fast enough for some of the heavier precip bands to be heavy snow. We will see though.

So since this is a rain to snow event, and it will be raining for the most part on Thursday, I will make an update on Thursday, this time with live radar and condition updates, including some models. I won't make a snow forecast until tomorrow, since there are so many things that could go wrong and we don't get anything or something goes better than planned and we get much more snow than expected. Right now, I am thinking of a trace to an inch in southern MoCo and a coating to 2 inches in Northern MoCo, with some isolated areas, possibly pushing 2 inches. 3" is not out of the question if the cold air pushes in faster or the heavy precip lingers for longer.

NWS Announces That Special Weather Statements and Advisories Won't Be Used Again by 2024

 The National Weather Service today announced that advisories for weather events like wind, flooding, and winter weather will not be used again(exception: Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories), and this also includes special weather statements. This is some really big news to hear since this will change the way weather forecasters predict and the whole system of the NWS forever. In this post, I will be going over:

- Why this is happening

- What will be happening in the future

- My opinion

You can also read the whole document that the NWS made at:

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/pns21-12_haz_simp_headlines.pdf

Why This is Happening:

But why is this happening in the first place? Well, it's because research done by the NWS shows that Advisory headlines cause confusion within the general public, who don't understand the weather alert system that well. The term itself is often misunderstood and is often compared to a Watch(meaning that dangerous weather may be happening soon). This misunderstanding can lead to confusion of the forecast and may hinder the preparation of people trying to get ready for the weather, usually for the worse. The NWS wants to make it more obvious about the weather hazard and wants people to have less confusion and misunderstanding.

What Will Be Happening In the Future:

All of the advisory headlines that are in the NWS' "Watch, Warning, and Advisory" system will be discontinued. Most of them will be replaced with "plain-language headlines" that will be made in an effort to clearly announce and state the nature of the hazard. They will still have the "Valid Time Event Code" (VTEC) as we do right now. All special weather statements will be discontinued, however, they will have a computer-readable VTEC and will be placed in a "What, Where, When, Impacts" type of format. The exact language used in those headlines is yet to be determined but will be determined in the next couple of years. Everything else would be either watches or warnings. Some advisory-level events might become warning or watch criteria. For example, 4-5 inches of snow(still technically advisory level right now) could become a winter storm warning once these changes are implemented.

My Opinion:

My opinion about this decision is that it's good, but I don't agree with implementing this everywhere. Why? First of all, we have been using this system for a very long time; maybe even since the NWS was founded! It is going to take a long time for everyone to get adapted to this whole system, and this will create more confusion. And my worry is that with these "plain-language headlines" that people will have even more confusion! There is already a lot of confusion between watch and warning, and I feel like removing advisories would cause a little bit more confusion. Since I don't have much experience forecasting weather that isn't winter-related, I am not sure how it will work with other weather, but I have enough information about winter weather to make an educated opinion. Winter weather advisories should be there in the DMV. Maybe not for areas like New England and the Midwest, but since our winter-weather events are generally on the smaller side, we should still have advisories, because like I said, people will take it less seriously if there isn't one. I agree with the decision to remove special weather statements though, they don't really do much. Overall, I think it is a good decision, but some changes need to be done to it.

I will be giving more updates to this decision as I get more information. And I know, I haven't been posting too much recently, because of the boring weather pattern. However, winter is not over until its really over. Models are showing an interesting pattern for mid-March. I will make a post on Saturday/Sunday explaining it when I have more details and information. I told everyone that in La Nina winters, something usually comes up in March, even if that winter so far was bad. And well... there you have it! Something came up! Winter isn't over until its TRULY over. Don't throw away the thick, winter coat just yet. The weather will be really nice next week, and some areas could get into the 70's!

Spring is Coming... but Winter is Still Here...

Yesterday, we had very mild and nice weather. It felt like spring. And with temps expected to be warmer than the rest of February, some people are going under the unfortunately wrong thought that winter is mostly wrapped up. I know I already made a post about how winter wasn't over, and I still stand by that. I will be giving more data from more experts as well. 

Winter really had fun toying with us in February, cause it was the first time since 2015 that we had below-average temperatures. We also had 9 storms. However, we didn't really get that much snow from them. In theory, they should have gotten our snow totals much above average. La Nina doesn't really work out for us though, but this winter was still a good season, primarily for our northern suburbs and more inland areas. And we still have March to go.

Now March... you've heard the saying "March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb". Yeah no, it will probably stay as a lion for a good part of the month. The European ensemble is showing some very interesting connections that need to be watched.

Credit to Justin Weather for this image

The AO is positive, except for March 5 alone, where it's neutral/slightly negative.  This is not good for snow, however, the time period of March 5-10 needs to be watched closely. Pattern fluctuations during this time period are possible, and even somewhat likely! Justin Berk says that "he does not see anything major before March 12 in the arctic oscillation", which is fair, considering that it's positive. However, it still needs to be watched very closely.

Credit to Justin Berk(Justin Weather) for this image

The NAO is slightly negative for the start of March up to March 6th, and that pattern supports snow. But from March 5-10, we need to watch the NAO. It goes strongly positive and then starts to go down to slightly negative/neutral. This is what I meant by pattern fluctuations. We need to watch early - mid-March, cause patterns are going to keep fluctuating rapidly.

Tweet from Judah Cohen:

Dr. Judah Cohen, an expert on the Arctic and how it can affect the weather here, has pointed out that the GFS is showing another arctic buildup during the 2nd week of March, where Greenland blocking returns and increases the risk for colder weather, including snowfall for Europe, and how it could possibly expand to us in the eastern US. Another person in the comments of this tweet(Michael Solomonides) stated that this pattern is also starting to show up on the long-range runs of the European model

Credit to Justin Berk

And just to add insult to injury, do you see the temperature fluctuations during early March. From down to up, and from up to down... There is a consistent cold after March 1st, and the trend seems to be going colder(European Model for Baltimore).

And you know how I was talking about La Nina? During La Nina winters, there's usually something that comes in March, even if the winter so far wasn't that great. During the winters of 2016-17 and 2017-18, IAD(airport closest to MoCo) had its snowiest March, due to Winter Storm Stella(2017) and Winter Storm Toby(2018). I don't think our snowiest month will be March, even with that being said, but the point is March cannot be underestimated. And for people who have lived here for a long time, I think you know that already. During the superstorm of March 1993, IAD measured 14.1 inches of snow! Heavy snow fell while temps were marginal(33-35)! 3 FEET of snow fell in Westminster, in Carroll County during that storm! March 2014 was the snowiest March since 1963 for IAD, where 19.3 inches of snow fell. All I want to say is that winter is not out of the game.

A new year, a new pattern, and a new storm potential!

Read the summary down below if you don't want to read the whole article; this weather news impacts people as far south as Florida and Texas. The first part is for DMV readers, though.

Happy new year to everyone! Hopefully, we can put back 2020 and move on. As the new year has come, we also have a chance of some snow, on Tuesday, and then something else to watch, during the time period of January 8th.

This tweet from the Capital Weather Gang says the chances for over an inch of snow (SPI) is 1/10, and the chances are rising. The Tuesday snowflakes part of the tweet is nothing too crazy to look forward to, but it is the last part of the tweet that is interesting, "next week as the pattern becomes friendlier for snow." 

This is the part that is for all readers, including the ones that aren't located in the DMV.

The pattern is important for winter weather, as it can decide how much moisture or cold air we get. Last year, we had the moisture but were just lacking the cold air. In the past 5 years, we haven't really gotten any storm that was crazy(With the exception of the 2015-2016 winter and maybe the 2018-2019 winter). This winter, for the entire U.S(as far as I am concerned), is a La Nina winter, which isn't good for snow in our area, because of the warm waters RIGHT next to the Atlantic. When the moisture comes(precip), there is warm air in place and there is rain. Right after, there is cold air, but no moisture. However, we can still see some above-average snowfall, even in a La Nina.

This map shows the pattern that will be coming in the next few days(Credit to Nikhil Trivedi for getting this picture, the picture was taken from his tweet.) If you don't understand this at all(like I do), the blueish colors represent the cold air. Due to anomalous ridging(which means that all of the warm air is in the Arctic air, or at least I think so), the cold air gets displaced and put to the south(Mid-Atlantic and interior southeast), which means we get cold air(certain about the pattern bringing cold air to us).  This means that places like Florida and Georgia could see some significant snow and winter weather! This is the same type of pattern that occurred during the epic and awesome winter of 2009-2010, where D.C alone almost measured 5 feet of snow and is the winter where we got the most snowfall recorded. (The interior Northeast didn't get much snow though that year). We got big, huge snowstorms and blizzards, that occurred next to each other(These storms were close to as big as the blizzard of 2016!). This could finally bring us the winter that we snow lovers in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast have been waiting for for a long time. These kinds of storms and patterns could close schools, even through virtual learning! This is one of the most exciting things about winter weather I haven't seen in a LONG time. I know I am hyping this too much, but we have everything in place! Now... we just wait. The potential storm on January 8th is the first storm in this pattern. 

This picture, taken by Matthew Cappucci(a meteorologist for the Capital Weather Gang), explains this pattern much better. This shows that in the Northeast + Mid-Atlantic(most of it), there is increased winter potential for some good storms, and as the picture above also shows, cold air locked into most of Pennsylvania and down to include most of the southeastern and central USA. In the interior southeast(Georgia, Arkansas), there is also an increased severe weather potential for you guys(thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc.). And in the west coast, and the upper Midwest, the temperatures will be above average. There's also an active storm track coming, which is why we have a good bet on some good winter weather. Our area is above the storm track, which is good, since it means that we will be in the storm track. I will be watching that Jan 8-9 storm, and making posts about it soon.

Summary:

If you didn't read the entire article and just want a summary, there's a pattern in place for our area that will lock in cold air for the Mid Atlantic, the Southeast, and a good chunk of the central US. There will be increased winter potential for the Northeast and increased severe potential in the interior Southeast. The upper midwest and west coast will see above-average temperatures. The DMV could see some snowflakes on Tuesday, and there's a bigger storm on Friday-Saturday that will be the first storm of this new pattern. Right now, snow lovers around the east coast are rejoicing. Thank you for reading!