2/17 Overnight Moderate Event for DC/Balt Metros

A low-pressure system tracking in southern VA will bring our region snow again. It will move out fast, but will bring good dynamics with it, and intensify as it slides across, bringing heavy rates. Winter storm warnings are up for those in the I81 corridor and N of I66 for 4-6" of snow, with more in the mountains.

A strong 170-200kt UL jet will lead to divergence(therefore, rising air) on the left exit of the jet(over us). This, along with strong frontogenesis/WAA will support lift, which looks to stretch throughout the DGZ, leading to optimal snow growth and support for heavy banding. The intensifying low pressure will also deepen the lift in the DGZ even more, strongly supporting the idea of 1-3"/hr rates and higher accumulations; despite short duration. 

A sounding in N MoCo indicates a favorable environment for snow growth barring the above-freezing surface temps. N of 66 and NW of 95 temps should be 30-32 during the peak precip, and we should dynamically cool to around 32 when the precip sets in.

Additionally, the 850 MB low(image 2) is in a favorable position for those just north of its track, and the SLP is in an ideal location. We will see strong WAA(image 1) and healthy PVA(image 3). Large dynamic cooling is expected given the rates of the precip and the profile being dry enough right now(image 4). 

Thus, 1-3"/hr rates are expected with this system. The duration will be around 3-6 hours, but the impressive dynamics and rates will make up for the short period of time, in my opinion. The overall setup is just supportive of heavy snowfall rates, and ratios aren't horrible either(should be around 10:1, slightly higher in peak banding). Overnight timing also really helps here with any melting/sun angle concerns, so long as we are around or below freezing it will have no problem sticking.

Thus, this is why I went aggressive with my snowfall and forecasted widespread 4-6" N of 66, with mountains getting 6-8" because of orographic lift leading to heavier rates in banding(as well as being colder). Thundersnow is possible too due to the strong forcing and instability in the column. Heavy snow is almost a lock, but this event will almost fully wrap up by 7-8 am. Although the warm is ground initially, initial precip should help saturate the column and enforce dynamic cooling for the heavier rates. It will stick to roads due to the overnight timing and rates. Precip type should generally be all snow N of 66(maybe you might see a bit of rain mix in at the start but should transition quickly), S of there you should start as rain first but transition to snow. Overall, a solid snowstorm is upcoming for N and W of DC! 

Final Call Snow & Ice Maps and Nowcast

 

These are my final call snow and ice maps. Almost nothing has changed for the snow map, but the ice map has took a change for the good: The 0.1-0.25"+ zone is now gone, and has been replaced with the 0.01-0.1"+ ice zone. Most people will only see up to a tenth of an inch of ice, but the plus is there for the mountains who will have cold air for longer, allowing for longer ice accumulations. Also some localized areas may see amounts just above a tenth of an inch. Cold air was undermodeled and WAA was overmodeled on high res models if you look at radar. This could mean a longer time period of snow, and just in general wintry precipitation. Surfaces will be below freezing for a while even when temps start to rise above freezing.

MLK Weekend Storm - What to expect

Good afternoon everyone! We have a winter storm threat to track tomorrow and Monday morning. This threat is looking more like an ice threat instead of a snow threat; but if you live north and west of I-95 you will still see some snow accumulation for this storm. Unless you're far north and west(along and west of I-81), you probably won't see an optimal amount of snow - if you like snow. This storm takes an inland track - so being even a little bit more west can make a difference. When the snow starts, it will be heavy, with rates 1-3" per hour. When it snows, it will thump. Wind gusts up to 45 MPH are possible with this storm, creating the possibility of downed trees and spotty power outages, especially when ice starts to take over the snow. I would recommend to stay off of the roads(if NW of I-95) on Sunday-Monday, as the snow with ice makes roads very slippery and impassible at times. There is a very cold airmass in place for the storm, so ice and snow will stick longer to untreated surfaces. Please note that freezing rain can happen even above freezing, if surface temps and wet bulb are still <32. There is a winter weather advisory for all of MoCo, with 1-3" expected and up to 0.1" of ice. Just north of us is in a winter storm warning, for 2-4" of snow and 0.1-0.3" of ice.

NAM12KM:

Note: at the time where it shows pink for our area(7 PM), I looked at a sounding for Germantown/Gaithersburg and it would seem as if it would be sleet, rather than freezing rain. Still, you can see everyone starts off as snow, and then the warm nose comes in, turning into sleet, then freezing rain, and eventually, when the CAD breaks, cold rain. 

 

 

Ice total and snow total maps, pretty self explanatory.

NAM3KM:

 

The NAM high res shows everyone starting out as snow, then going to ice, and then going to plain rain. The NAM 3KM also shows some backend snow, which is interesting. However, it seems to be light snow, and probably wouldn't amount to much. A lot of the rain will wash all of the snow away, so even if 3" fell, it wouldn't look like it.

 

 

The reason why the NAM 3km shows a lot of ice is because of strong southeasterly upper level winds, forcing warm air into the atmosphere and creating a warm nose that gets more dense as time goes on. Eventually, the cold air at the surface breaks, and areas east of I-81 switch to cold rain.

 

 One other thing I want to talk about is the wind gusts. At this time(8P Sunday), freezing rain is falling all throughout the region. With the strong wind gusts(40-50 MPH wind gusts), isolated power outages and downed trees is likely. I would recommend everyone north and west of I-95 to get ready to deal with some time w/o power, just in case.

*Editors Note: While I was writing this, the 18z NAMs came out, all of the models shown are from the 12z suite

My snow and ice forecast:

(I apologize for very low quality maps, Blogger won't let me put high quality pictures) 

My next update for these maps will be tomorrow morning, after 12z mesoscale runs come in. I'm going bullish with my forecast because I think there will be heavy enough rates for a large enough area to get 2-4" before the changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and then cold rain. I think the NAM is too bullish on the warm air coming in very quickly and changing over to rain, so I didn't use the NAM that much in my forecast. Other models look pretty good for our region in terms of snow, such as the Euro, GFS, and HRRR. My final call WILL be tomorrow morning, after 12z HRRR, and both NAMs come in.

To conclude, I expect 2-4" of snow(possibly more in localized areas) for Northern MoCo and 1-3" for Southern MoCo. For ice, I expect 0.1-0.25" of ice for the general area, with possibly more in localized areas. Timing onset will be in the afternoon, at 1-3 PM. This will be a high impact storm, especially west of I-81, and also for NW of I-95, not just for snow, but for ice. I am very concerned about the ice threat, since CAD is usually undermodeled, especially on global models, and the ice combined with the strong wind gusts could create widespread power outages and downed trees. I'll have a quick update tomorrow, and then I'll do a nowcast.

First Significant Snowfall of the Season

 Update: All schools in MoCo have closed for tomorrow

I have a Twitter account, follow for more weather related news: https://twitter.com/shark_wx

 

Overnight, models have trended towards the better for snow lovers. The model runs have only been getting better and better for snow. All of the models have either trended NW, or stayed in the same place. Also, every model has been trending more amped(powerful), and reserved(slower), which means that when we get snow, its gonna be dumped on us. The storm on radar also looks more amped and NW compared to what the models were showing, which is very good. Southern MoCo is in a WSW(3-7" expected), and Northern MoCo is in a WWA(2-4" expected). Near blizzard conditions are possible with this storm. If NW trend continues, Northern MoCo will be in the WSW too. Snow rates between 5a - 11a tomorrow are the heaviest, with rates being 1-3", and with <32 temps, it will not take long for the morning commute to descend into chaos. I'll be making my snowflake prediction for school closings, and my snow forecast!

Euro:

 Euro shows 8-10" of snow for MoCo, and it's solution is similar to the 21z RAP.z

 

The Euro ensemble has >90% for almost all of MoCo to see 3+ inches of snow. The extreme northern part of MoCo has a 80-90% chance, which is still VERY high.

SREF:

This is the SREF mean. It shows 6-12 inches for MoCo and south. At the start of the storm, it will take a while for the ground to cool, but oh it will cool very fast once it really starts to snow. This isn't kuchera, so it will be inaccurate. At the start, snow ratio will be less than 10:1, but when the heavy snow starts to pick up, and temps start to drop, the ratio will be more than 10:1. Overall, the SREF mean shows a significant snowfall for our area. 

NAM:

(Credit: to dollar monkey#6663 for telling me this)

I don't trust the snow amounts and the ptype map on the NAM, but my friend saw something on vorticity that was really interesting. The area that was circled could potentially have a heavy snow band in that area, which would increase totals. Bands always form north of what is modeled, and this one looks to do just that. There is a tail at 700 mb vorticity, and that usually means that north of it gets a heavy snow band. Hence, I think that a heavy snow band will form in this area. The first image is an alternative scenario where the band sets up further south, and the third image is a scenario where it sets up further north. I have a more confidence for the third image(FGEN at 700mb supports this, second image), and the band will set up in the DC metro region. This was something interesting I found on the NAM 12km.

 

GRAF:

 

This is the GRAF model. I don't have access to this model, but I was able to find it online. It shows 6-12 inches for almost all of our region, including extreme southern Frederick county and south of that. It shows 12-18" of snow for parts of eastern MD and DE, which might be a little too extreme. I am not sure how well this model does, but I heard that it does really good with these types of events. This shows a widespread significant snowstorm for the DMV.

RAP: 

 

This is the RAP. It shows a widespread 6-12", with SoMD getting the highest totals. MoCo gets 8-10" of snow, which is a VERY substantial amount. I would say that this wouldn't be as extreme, but the storm as of 5:52 PM looks much more stronger and amped on radar, with more moisture, so this could indeed verify.

My Snow Forecast:

 

This is my second call for snowfall for the January 3rd event! It's pretty self explanatory what the totals are, so I'll go over why I made it like this. I feel like this storm will over perform. On radar right now, the storm is more north, and is much more amped than high-res models were showing, which is a very good sign for this storm to boom. I was talking about the possible location on where the heavy band sets up, and that would increase snow totals significantly due to a good thump. Because of models overall trending for the better, and the observed storm is doing better than what was expected, I made the snow totals more widespread and increased them. DC and south is going to receive 6-12" in my opinion because of the heavy thump of snow and possible banding forming there. I think 5-9"+ for central and semi-northern MD(MoCo) because of the storm going a tad bit north with much more moisture. There is a possibility that the 5-9 area could see more than 9 in localized spots because of heavy banding moving north. Snow rates will be extremely heavy with this storm, and will overtake ground temperatures quickly. It will start off as rain before quickly turning into snow.

 

As for the snowflake prediction: 4.5 Snowflakes

 

I am very confident in schools closing for this system. 1-3" rate snowfall during the rush hour is a recipe for disaster. Crew won't have enough time to fully treat the roads, and the initial rain will wash off some of the salt and make it less effective. Winds are also going to be very gusty, further creating a visibility problem. I just cannot see how schools will open, even on a 2 hour delay.

NWS Announces That Special Weather Statements and Advisories Won't Be Used Again by 2024

 The National Weather Service today announced that advisories for weather events like wind, flooding, and winter weather will not be used again(exception: Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories), and this also includes special weather statements. This is some really big news to hear since this will change the way weather forecasters predict and the whole system of the NWS forever. In this post, I will be going over:

- Why this is happening

- What will be happening in the future

- My opinion

You can also read the whole document that the NWS made at:

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/pns21-12_haz_simp_headlines.pdf

Why This is Happening:

But why is this happening in the first place? Well, it's because research done by the NWS shows that Advisory headlines cause confusion within the general public, who don't understand the weather alert system that well. The term itself is often misunderstood and is often compared to a Watch(meaning that dangerous weather may be happening soon). This misunderstanding can lead to confusion of the forecast and may hinder the preparation of people trying to get ready for the weather, usually for the worse. The NWS wants to make it more obvious about the weather hazard and wants people to have less confusion and misunderstanding.

What Will Be Happening In the Future:

All of the advisory headlines that are in the NWS' "Watch, Warning, and Advisory" system will be discontinued. Most of them will be replaced with "plain-language headlines" that will be made in an effort to clearly announce and state the nature of the hazard. They will still have the "Valid Time Event Code" (VTEC) as we do right now. All special weather statements will be discontinued, however, they will have a computer-readable VTEC and will be placed in a "What, Where, When, Impacts" type of format. The exact language used in those headlines is yet to be determined but will be determined in the next couple of years. Everything else would be either watches or warnings. Some advisory-level events might become warning or watch criteria. For example, 4-5 inches of snow(still technically advisory level right now) could become a winter storm warning once these changes are implemented.

My Opinion:

My opinion about this decision is that it's good, but I don't agree with implementing this everywhere. Why? First of all, we have been using this system for a very long time; maybe even since the NWS was founded! It is going to take a long time for everyone to get adapted to this whole system, and this will create more confusion. And my worry is that with these "plain-language headlines" that people will have even more confusion! There is already a lot of confusion between watch and warning, and I feel like removing advisories would cause a little bit more confusion. Since I don't have much experience forecasting weather that isn't winter-related, I am not sure how it will work with other weather, but I have enough information about winter weather to make an educated opinion. Winter weather advisories should be there in the DMV. Maybe not for areas like New England and the Midwest, but since our winter-weather events are generally on the smaller side, we should still have advisories, because like I said, people will take it less seriously if there isn't one. I agree with the decision to remove special weather statements though, they don't really do much. Overall, I think it is a good decision, but some changes need to be done to it.

I will be giving more updates to this decision as I get more information. And I know, I haven't been posting too much recently, because of the boring weather pattern. However, winter is not over until its really over. Models are showing an interesting pattern for mid-March. I will make a post on Saturday/Sunday explaining it when I have more details and information. I told everyone that in La Nina winters, something usually comes up in March, even if that winter so far was bad. And well... there you have it! Something came up! Winter isn't over until its TRULY over. Don't throw away the thick, winter coat just yet. The weather will be really nice next week, and some areas could get into the 70's!

2/18/2021 Storm Recap

This storm was a bust, in terms of snow totals. However, we got a lot of sleet. I have never seen this much sleet in my life. It was powdery and really good for sledding. A massive refreeze will occur tonight, so leave the salt out.

Snow Totals(sleet included):

This is the amount of snow, sleet included, that fell across the region. It shows 0.8(around an inch) - 3 inches across the county, with the most snow and sleet in NW MoCo. I myself recorded 3 inches of snow and sleet, I know at least 1 inch of snow fell though if we are differentiating both of them. The storm started as snow/sleet but quickly changed to sleet for everyone. Sleet rates were so heavy at times, and surface temps were so cold that the sleet was more powdery than icy. Snow tried to fight back the sleet in Northern MoCo during the onset(5a-12p). Snow started to taper off by then. Light precipitation fell through the afternoon and as we got into the evening, freezing drizzle fell and accumulated on all surfaces. On Friday, on and off light precipitation fell, and another coating, all the way up to 1 inch of snow fell.

Ice Totals:

Most everyone didn't see over 0.1 inches of ice, according to this map(one localized area in NW MoCo has 0.15 inches of ice), although I have localized reports of areas getting up to a quarter-inch, and possibly a little over that. I myself measured 0.20-0.25 inches of ice.

Overall, this storm wasn't a good storm, but it will be somewhat memorable, due to the amount of sleet that fell.

Final Forecast for Thursday-Friday Snowstorm and Snowflake Prediction

Well, this may be the first time I am saying this in a long time, but it's looking fairly well for snow lovers. We should see at least 3 inches of snow, and probably more in some areas. However, ice is a huge threat right now, and significant impacts from the ice will occur, such as power outages and severe tree damage. Get prepared now. This is going to be our highest impact storm since 2019, and maybe even 2016. Snow with ice is a terrible combination. The models still haven't come in to consensus though, even less than 24 hours out. It's ridiculous. Winter storm warnings for MoCo and our surrounding counties are in effect right now. It states 4-8 inches of snow and up to 0.1 inches of ice for Upper MoCo, and 3-6 inches for lower MoCo, plus 0.10-0.25 inches of ice. They also said that "snow Thursday morning will be heavy at times with snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour possible along with visibility reduced to around one-quarter mile at time." The storm will start around 2-4 AM, and end on Friday morning. We will have at least 6 hours of snow, then 6 or so hours of ice, then we will switch back to snow. When talking about models I will also include ice accumulation(if I have that data).

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows heavy snow before turning over into sleet and then eventually tapering off. Models have been trending towards a more lighter event after 2 PM Thursday. It does show less sleet and more heavy snow. In terms of ice accumulation, it practically shows no ice, except for a glaze(<0.01-0.05) in the southern borders.

Snow Accumulation:

The NAM shows 4-7 inches of snow, with more snow in the northern areas than southern areas. The most snow is in the Frederick County/Montgomery County border. The heavy band will drop most of the snow; the NAM shows 2-3 inches before the band and then after the band; totals around 4-6 inches for a lot of the county! This is an improvement and shows that it corrected itself a bit because radar shows the storm strengthening right now and going a tad more south.

European:

The European model shows the heavy snow turning into freezing rain. It does show some scattered snow showers after the main bulk of the storm is done though. Don't have freezing rain totals.

Snow Accumulation:

The European model shows 5-8 inches of snow, with the most snow in NW areas than SE areas. I agree with this model the most in terms of totals. But models are really bad this year, so I really don't know what to choose. Note that this is a 10:1 ratio.

GFSv16:

Snow Totals(someone sent me it who had access to WeatherBell):

This model is a different version of the GFS, yet they are both so different. The GFSv16 is showing over 8-12 inches for MoCo; most areas around 10-11 inches. This is possible if we see heavier snow and less mixing, but there isn't enough confidence to give a clear answer. I think that this would be a boom scenario, but the chances of this happening increase in the northwestern areas of our county, and the chances decrease when you go to the southeastern areas of our county. 10 inches could happen for the whole county, I'm just saying it's more likely in northern areas than southern areas. If the warm air aloft is suppressed enough, this could easily happen. However, we don't know if models are over or underdoing the WAA(warm air advection; pretty much warm air aloft, temps on the surface/ground will be below freezing), since each model has a different opinion and disagreement everywhere. This is a tricky setup, and I don't think I have seen this amount of disagreement this close to the storm. We can hope but don't count on these amounts; just know that it is possible.

GFS:

The GFS shows the storm starting out as heavy snow before turning into a mix, and shows some sort of lull before the precipitation starts again, and it starts to taper off when it's turned back to snow for everyone. I won't be showing the 18z run cause it's completely wrong, and I don't want to mislead my readers. You can check it on Pivotal Weather for yourself if you would like.

Ice Accumulation:

The GFS shows 0.2 inches - 0.5 inches of ice(freezing rain not sleet). This amount would be devastating and would cause major damage, including widespread power outages and extreme tree damage. I don't think we will see this much though, but we will still see enough to cause significant damage.

Snow Accumulation:

The GFS shows 4-7 inches of snow across the county, but its generally scattered. NW areas generally have more snow than SE areas though. I don't agree with these totals, its pretty scattered. The GFS has been not so great with this system, in my personal opinion. It has been proven; showing 3-5 inches in Arkansas, and then those areas under that forecast(of GFS) are getting totals much higher than that.

CMC:

The CMC has shifted south. It shows heavy snow turning over to sleet, then turning back over into snow. I don't have ice totals for this model.

Snow Accumulation:

The CMC shows 4-6 inches for our county, with the highest totals west of us. I don't agree with this model that much but I will show it anyways. This is a 10:1 ratio though.

Maps:

NWS:

The NWS shows 4-6 inches for most of the county, with 6-8 inches for Northern MoCo. If we boom, they expect 6-8 inches for 3/4 of the whole county, with 8-12 inches in the upper quarter of MoCo. If we bust, they expect 1-4 inches of snow, 1-2 inches for Southern MoCo, 2-3 inches for most of Northern MoCo, and 3-4 inches for areas like Damascus and Clarksburg. Boom(high-end) and bust(low-end) maps will be listed below.

High-end totals(boom scenario, more snow than expected)

Low-end totals(bust scenario, less snow than expected)

Ice Totals:

The NWS shows 0.01-0.10 inches of ice for Northern MoCo, where more snow is expected, and 0.10-0.25 inches for Southern MoCo. This is much less than what they have said before thankfully.

Fox 5:

Fox 5 predicts 3-6 inches for the entire county, with more snow in NW areas than SE areas. They said that areas in the 6-12 inches of snow area are closer to 6 inches than 12 inches.

WUSA 9:

Snow Accumulation:

Howard Bernstein shows 6-9+ inches of snow for 55-65% of MoCo, and the southern part of MoCo in the 4-6 inches of snow. He said localized amounts of 10 to 11 inches of snow are possible, but mainly in the mountains(Hagerstown and west).

Ice Accumulation:

They show 0.1-0.25 inches of ice for most of the county, with the MoCo/DC border in the 0.25-0.5 inches of ice section. This would cause major issues.

ABC 7:

ABC 7 thinks 3-6 inches for our entire county. Their map hasn't changed that much.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 shows 2-6 inches for most of our county and 6-10 inches in the northernmost portion of our county. They said that ice will be on top of that 2-6 inches of snow in the dark blue section, and in the purple section, it should be mostly snow.

Capital Weather Gang:

Snow Accumulation:

The CWG shows 3-6 inches for most of the county(2/3), and 1/3 of MoCo(southern section) is in the 2-4 inches of snow area. In the 3-6 inches of snow area, a boom would be up to 10 inches, and a bust would be 1-3 inches. In the 2-4 inches of snow area, a boom would be up to 8 inches, and a bust would be less than 2 inches.

Ice Accumulation:

The CWG shows most of our county in the "low threat" region, and our very southern areas in the "Moderate Threat" region, where 0.05-0.2 inches of ice is expected, with a boom being up to 0.4 inches, and a bust being none. If we bust here, we should see more snow. If we boom here, we should see less snow. Temps will remain below freezing the entire time; it is just what is going up in the atmosphere.

QuackyDucc's(my friend's) Snowflake Prediction: 4.5 SNOWFLAKES ❆❆❆❆❄

His statement: "I think that school buildings and virtual learning will be closed tomorrow because of the very high amounts of ice and the future accumulating snow coming."

My Snowflake Prediction(deserves an image): 5 SNOWFLAKES

7:30 AM Update(Thursday): 

Unfortunately for snow lovers, it's looking like an ice storm instead of a snowstorm. Heavy sleet and freezing rain outside my window. Prepare for power outages, cause they are likely. I have downgraded my forecast to 2-4 inches in Southern MoCo and 3-5 inches in Northern MoCo.

9:10 PM Update:

Even though MCPS has called virtual classes to continue, I still think that they will reconsider their decision. Both school and office buildings are closed, which should mean that virtual instruction should close, but it isn't. If they don't reconsider, I honestly think that action can and might be taken against MCPS; this is ridiculous, and I am not just saying this as a student. Many other parents and teachers, even those who are generally against snow days agree this was a very poor decision. Temps areawide is 4-8 degrees colder than expected, making the snow's job to rapidly accumulate even easier. Roads and sidewalks will be a trashy mess. This storm has really grown and gotten gassed up in the past few hours; Arkansas was expected to get 3-5 inches and have now gotten 10-12+ inches of snow. The storm is now even further south than what was modeled, giving us the chance for more snow. I think that the potential for higher snow totals is increasing. So for my snow totals, I will change it to 4-8+ inches of snow for Northern MoCo and 3-6+ inches for Southern MoCo(for snow). The warm nose a little bit warmer than expected though, so I don't know... Snowflake prediction dropped to 3 snowflakes; 50% chance of no school.

I have never been this confident in schools closing for a very long time. I would be completely shocked if virtual instruction wasn't canceled. The University of Maryland has closed in-person and virtual activities, and they are located south of us(granted they are supposed to see more ice). They don't close easily at all, and if they closed for the day, it's a good step in the right direction. Temps will be in the mid to upper 20's the entire time, making sure sticking happens on all surfaces. Heavy snowfall rates, often reaching 1-2+ inch per hour rates will help snow quickly accumulate. The heaviest snow should be between 6 AM - 1 PM. Plows won't be able to keep up with the snowfall rates, and snow-covered surfaces are guaranteed. Surface temps will be below freezing the entire time. I doubt offices will stay open. And the wet, heavy snow plus the ice will cause lots of stress on power lines and will cause spotty power outages, and tree damage. Trees are already somewhat damaged from the ice storm we had on Saturday. Cleanup will become much more difficult when the ice starts coming down and compacting the snow. Over 0.5 inches of QPF are expected to fall with this storm. The storm should start to taper off and become lighter in the afternoon hours, and there might be a lull, but roads will be impossible. Power outages are likely as well, and internet providers may fail with the conditions outside. There is not a doubt school buildings won't close. And virtual learning may cease to work as well. If they don't close, there will be accidents galore. Our storm is more south than what the afternoon models showed, meaning that the storm is picking up more moisture and fuel from the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure is at the right place so the storm won't go north. Heavier snow bands would enforce dynamic cooling, keeping it mostly snow. I predict 3-6+ inches for Southern MoCo(falling in all, not what is on the ground), and 4-8 inches in Northern MoCo. The snow should start in the early AM hours of Thursday, and start to taper off at 12-2p, where it will slowly start to turn into a mix. Mixing will continue into the night and will switch back to snow. The precip might start to pick up at 5pm, but won't be nearly as heavy as the precip in the morning. The snow in the morning will be really, heavy, and I mean it! Totals should be close to storm totals once the band is done(not the exact same since there is still more snow to go). Prepare for power outages, travel will be impossible tomorrow morning, and will start to become better in the afternoon hours, but will still be dangerous. This will be a high-impact storm and will be since at least 2019. Precip should be all said and done by Friday morning. Expect to wake up to a winter wonderland tomorrow.