Final Prediction for 3-1-2019

There is a winter weather advisory in effect for all of MoCo.
"...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5
inches expected. The highest snowfall totals are most likely
near and north of Interstates 70 and 68.

* WHERE...Northern and central Maryland including the Baltimore
Metropolitan area, northern Virginia, and eastern West
Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. Snow, mixing
with sleet at times will overspread the area between 1 AM and 3
AM overnight. A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible
between 2 AM and 6 AM overnight into early Friday morning.
Precipitation will change to rain early Friday afternoon. Rain
may freeze on elevated surfaces along the ridge tops near and
west of US 15 across northern and western Maryland."

The winter weather advisory for MoCo means there is almost a 100% chance that all of MoCo will get at least an inch. NBC 4 goes with 1-3 for nearly all of MoCo.(The other area in NBC 4's map is at Coating-1). ABC 7 goes with 1-2 inches for all of MoCo. FOX 5 goes with 1-2 inches of snow for all of MoCo. WUSA 9 goes with 1-2 inches for all of MoCo. Although it will change to rain, the transition is in the afternoon so they would be sending students in the snow(if it was an early dismissal).

We will have guests predicting!
The first one is Zachary.
Zachary's prediction: 4 snowflakes(ignore delay%)
"4 snowflakes because it would be a lot of effort to get to school, and there is already an early release, so it's not worth going to school."
The second one is Akash.
Akash says two snowflakes(the delay% is the closure%), but he's leaning towards a normal day(early release).
(Akash didn't say anything about why he thinks it will be an early release)

My prediction:
3 snowflakes(ignore the delay%)

2-5 inches of snow in the rush hour will cause lots of issues. Snow should stick because the whole county will be below 32 degrees this night. The precipitation is expected to last until 9-11AM. Damascus is the most likely to get 4 inches. All of MoCo should get around 1-3 inches. 4 inches is possible in Damascus(most likely to get). I am using the NWS snowfall map and predicting which areas will see the most and who will see the least.

Snow Threat for Friday 3/1/2019 and First Snowflake Prediction

If you thought winter was over, you were wrong. For the first 2 weeks of March, MoCo will have below average temps for March. In fact, pretty much the whole USA will have below average temps.
There is a snow threat for Friday. The NWS says 2-3 inches for most of MoCo, the other areas are in the 1-2 inches of snow area. There is an early dismissal for Friday, so there will either be a early dismissal or no school. This isn't much, but the timing is in the rush hour, so it will cause issues.  The temps for MoCo for Thursday range from 43-45 degrees for the highs(I'm just using temps from Damascus and Bethesda) and the lows range from 28-31 degrees, so everything should stick at least a little bit.  Most highs on Friday in MoCo are below 40 degrees, so it won't melt fast.

1st Prediction for 3-1-2019:
2 snowflakes(but the delay chance is the closure chance so it's a  50% chance of closure)

The snow won't melt fast and it should stick. The rush hour would be dangerous and they can't do a delay and a delay could easily help so they could close. The fact that if they close school, they will take away spring break means that MCPS will try their best not to close.

Wind Advisory 2-24-2019

It's SUPER windy outside. I can hear the wind howling outside of my windows.

There is a wind advisory in effect for Monday.  

" WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph this evening,
decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph overnight,
then increasing to 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 50 mph
Monday morning through midday."



They closed once for wind in the 2017-2018 school year. Winds were expected to sustain speeds of 50-60 mph. High winds can cause power outages and downed trees and (sometimes) downed power lines. The winds aren't supposed to be as high as March 2018(?), so it's not as high of a chance of closure as it would have been on the high wind day on March. The winds tonight could cause some damage to trees and downed power lines(probably not power lines).

 Prediction:

Since no snowflake prediction can cover this, I will give the exact percentages.

Delay: 38%

Closure: 38%
 
There's an okay chance, but I think there will be a full day.

Prediction for Thursday Feb 21

Most of MoCo got 4-7 inches of snow! In my front yard, there were 7 inches of snow, making it the second most significant snowfall this year. NBC4's map was the most accurate! Surprisingly, they made the call at 5 PM Tuesday instead of 5 AM on Wednesday. Main roads, I think, are okay. The reason I said okay instead of good is that the massive snowfall rate and the freezing rain made it harder to make the roads okay. But, most of MoCo's neighborhoods are bad. My neighborhood has yet to see a snowplow.Sidewalks and roads are snow covered and slushy and getting icy. I feel this call will either be at 7-9PM or 4-5AM tomorrow. If there's a delay, I think there would be a re-evaluation at 7 AM. The Warning is in effect until 10 PM Wednesday. 0.1-0.25 inches of ice is expected to fall. It's supposed to be around 50 degrees tomorrow.




Snowflake Prediction:
3 snowflakes.

I think there will be a delay because there's supposed to be ice on top of the snow, and the rain wouldn't help too much. Although temps will stay above freezing after the rain comes, it wouldn't be a drastic change. Roads and sidewalks(streets, not main roads) will be slushy. A delay would also give more time for salt trucks and plows to clear the roads. A closure is an option because of the 4-7 inches of snow. But, with the high being 50 degrees, the chance goes down for a closure because it would be 18 degrees higher than the freezing point, so it melts quicker.  But, if I had to lean to a closure or a delay, I would lean to a delay.

Final Prediction for Wednesday Snow(Correct)

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all of MoCo. It says to expect 3-6 inches of snow and 0.1-0.2 inches of ice(freezing rain). NBC 4 goes with 4-7 inches of snow for most of MoCo. Extreme Southern MoCo is in the 2-4 inches. WUSA 9 goes with 3-5 inches+ for most of MoCo and 1-3 inches for the other area(third call). ABC 7 goes with 6+ inches for most of MoCo. Extreme Southern MoCo is in the 4-6 inches amount, which is still a good amount(ABC 7). Fox 5 goes with 5-8 inches of snow for 20% of MoCo and the other 80% percent is in 3-5 inches range. Lots of these data will be updated as new model info comes in and that affects the snow maps. My forecast is 3-6 for 80% of MoCo and the other 20% 4-7 inches. In areas like Montgomery Village, there is an okay chance that they could see more than 6 inches(37%); it just isn't that likely. Around 3-7 AM is when the snow starts. Wednesday afternoon is when it starts to turn into a mix; areas in Northern MoCo will hold on for the snow the longest.  Wednesday evening is when it turns to regular rain.


We will be having guests predict! The first is Zachary! The second is Philip!

Zachary's prediction: 5 snowflakes.
"I went 5 snowflakes because there's snow, sleet, AND freezing rain."
Philip's prediction: 5 snowflakes.
"No school."
My prediction: 5 snowflakes.

The amounts are enough to close school and it starts at the rush hour, so opening on time isn't an option. A two hour delay isn't enough because it will still be snowing at 11AM and when the high and middle schoolers go to school, it will be snowing. It won't change to rain until the evening. REMEMBER, THIS IS JUST A PREDICTION. YOU SHOULD STILL TREAT IT AS A FULL DAY. Thank you Zachary for finding out a typo on the rating system!
MAJOR UPDATE: ALL MCPS SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED DUE TO WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY FEB 20.
FAQ
Q: Will MCPS take days out of our spring break yet?
A: Yes. Since there isn't school on Wednesday, Feb 20, they will start to take spring break away.

Second Prediction for Wednesday(Feb 20,2018)

So, most of the news channels have come with their first call for Wednesday. There is still a winter storm watch, which means that the storm is getting near and preparations should start. A Warning means that the storm is about to happen. Mike Thomas said the NWS was going aggressive with the numbers and said 3-6 inches of snow for ALL of MoCo for his first call. He also said that there are some areas that "thump"(heavier bands of snow that leads to more snow accumulations) more than what he shows. WUSA 9 went with 3-6 inches for almost all of MoCo with Damascus in the 6-8+ inches area. My forecast(second call) is 3-6 inches for MoCo, with 6+ inches in isolated areas in Northern MoCo. Damascus is probably most likely to get over 6 inches. Also, there will be ice. My forecast for ice (second call) is 0.1 inches to a quarter of an inch(0.25 inches), with isolated areas getting over 0.25 inches of ice. 0.25 inches of ice is when ice actually becomes dangerous because tree branches and trees start to fall and power outages start to happen.




Second Prediction for Feb 20,2019:

4 snowflakes













I feel like I went too aggressive with the first one. I had little info and was making a prediction using ONLY the NWS map. Now that I have more info, if the forecast doesn't change or there is more snow and ice, I will update it to 5 snowflakes. This can still change, but I can't see schools opening at all. Don't worry, I dropped it because there's still time to change. My final forecast and prediction will come out at around 4:00-7:30PM tomorrow.
As for Thursday... I'll talk about that when the time comes.
FAQ
Q:Will MCPS take days out of our spring break yet?
A: "Other dates in 2019 identified as possible make-up instructional days include:  April 17, April 18, and June 5". As of Feb 18,2019, no, they will not take away spring break days yet. If they close on Wednesday, they will take away June

First Snowflake Prediction for Feb 20, 2019

There is a winter storm watch in effect for all of MoCo. The watch states that snow totals of 5 inches or more are possible and the ice amounts will range from 0.1-0.25 inches which can easily cause power outages and slick roads. It also says more than 0.25 inches are possible. This is a moderate storm(check out rating system) so this will likely close schools. I would rate this a Category 3 Winter Storm due to the timing and the snow amounts plus the ice. Impacts are widespread. My forecast is 3-7 inches for MoCo. I think most areas will have less than 7 inches, but some areas could get 7 inches. Roads will be super messy because there will also be ice so MCPS will probably close. The models agree on snow to mix to rain. But they don't agree on the "jackpot" of the snow. This is looking good for snow lovers. At this point, it's almost a lock that we will get at least an inch. The Capital Weather Gang says half of MoCo is in Zone 1 and the other half in 2. Zone 1 means moderate snow and lots of ice. Zone 2 means some snow, ice, and rain. They rate it a Category 3 storm for Zone 1 and for Zone 2 and 3 they rate it Category 2.

First Prediction for Wednesday:

4.5 snowflakes
That means a 90% chance of closure and delay chances are almost 100%. This can easily change.

(the small snowflake is a half snowflake)
FAQ
Q:Will MCPS take days out of our spring break yet?
A: "Other dates in 2019 identified as possible make-up instructional days include:  April 17, April 18, and June 5". As of Feb 18,2019, no, they will not take away spring break days yet. If they close on Wednesday, they will take away June 5.

There will be more FAQs soon! Remember this is a FIRST prediction, so this will probably change as I get more info. Today night will be my second prediction and Tuesday Night will be my final prediction.

Snow Threat Update

Winter Weather Advisory

A winter weather advisory is in effect for Northern MoCo.
"WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow. Total sleet
and snow accumulations of less than an inch. Ice accumulations
of around one tenth of an inch expected."
This isn't anything big, but there will be slick spots in MoCo, but it's mainly Northern MoCo.
Update: The Advisory has been extended for ALL of MoCo.

 The Main Threat: February 20,2019

 The NWS has Northern MoCo on Moderate and the other half on Enhanced. "Moderate winter storm threat. Potential impacts include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family." "Enhanced winter storm threat. Primary threat is disruption to travel." So this means that there will be impacts, no matter where you go in MoCo. The timing is good too. It's for the full day, so MCPS might be forced to close. It starts as snow, turns into mix, and then all rain. The confidence is getting higher and higher.  This is similar to the November event. It started as snow, turned into a mix, and then turned into rain. There was a closure because of the timing and the snow amounts booming.

What I Know: There will be wintry weather on Wednesday.

                   All types of precipitation will fall.

                   There will be impacts.

What I Don't Know: The exact number of snow and ice.

                           The amount of impacts.

                            When the wintry weather will turn into rain(exact).

I feel like MCPS will have at least a delay. They are trying their best not to close but might be forced to. Again, this can change easily.

 

Next Snow Potential for Feb 20th 2019?

There is snow potential this Wednesday. It's supposed to start off as snow, turn into a mix, and then turn into all rain. So far, we aren't certain about the number of inches of snow. This starts in the early rush hour, so I think we will see some impacts on schools. The Euro and American aren't agreeing on the amount of snow. The Euro, the most accurate shows around 3-6 inches, with some areas getting over 6 inches. The GFS shows 1-3 inches. Now, you can start to get a little excited but this can and will change. The Euro model amounts is what would probably close schools.


Snowstorm rating European Model: Moderate, heavy in places.
GFS: Light snow.