Update Page Out

I just made this post so that you know that the update page is out. Again, this won't be replacing blog posts, but it will just be quick updates. Blog posts will have predictions and more thorough and informative updates. It will be a page titled "Update Page". To find the page, just look in the "Pages" section. Again, thank you for 1000 views. I will make a daily forecast on Sunday.

Thank You For 1000 Views!!

Thank you for 1000 views on my blog! Thank you for reading my predictions, I hope you enjoy reading them! At 8:25AM(01/30/2020), I have 1022 views on my blog. This is my first milestone for my blog! I don't know what I will do for it, but I will definitely fix and release that update page, and maybe put a daily forecast? I don't know, but if you like the idea of a daily forecast, please share your opinion and/or ideas for this blog in the comments! Thank you!

Credit: Pixabay

Coastal Storm on Friday/Saturday/Sunday and Announcement

There is a coastal storm that is possible on Friday Night-Saturday to maybe early morning Sunday that could bring us some winter weather(ice, snow, sleet, etc.). It is definitely something to watch because the system(at least some models show) has the perfect track for a good snowstorm, it is just missing cold air, that would bring us snow. Right now, models are showing either our area being dry(or virga)(when precipitation falls but doesn't reach the ground because it is too dry) or lots of rain, but no winter weather. However, models are very jumpy and the track of the storm will definitely change. Don't go out clearing the store shelves yet, because it is way too early to determine if there will be a snowstorm or not. We will get a better idea of this storm by Thursday, which is when I will make my next update about this storm. Right now, I will be watching the models and Mike Thomas(meteorologist at FOX 5)'s twitter because he is giving lots of updates about this storm. Also, I have an idea to make an update page. This page will include small updates about the weather, like pictures and captions. The reason I'm doing this is that if an "important" thing about the weather, like a winter weather threat or a change in maps, I won't have to create a new post. Don't worry, I will still create posts, I will just be giving more small updates much more quickly. It takes a lot of time to make a blog post, and 1 small update could change my whole blog(if it is really big like 3" becoming 3', I will make a separate blog post). It is just easier, hopefully you understand and are fine with this change! Also, as of 1-28-2020(10:15 PM), our website has been viewed 960 times. That is a pretty big number. Only 40 views away from 1000 views! Thank you for reading my posts!

Where to find Models:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/

https://weather.us/

Winter Weather Threat Friday/Saturday Update

Prediction: All MCPS activities on Saturday will be canceled, MCPS building services at least delayed and a 51% chance of closure(they will monitor weather conditions and decide to close on the conditions outside).

Sorry for the delayed update, this post was supposed to come out Wednesday(1/15/2020)

The winter threat is still there, but the snow amounts have gone down lower(this usually happens). Now, there seems to be lot of other precipitation than just pure snow as well, such as sleet, freezing rain, and cold rain(the order I said these types of precipitation is what order the precipitation is expected to fall for this storm). This is a Cold Air Damming event (CAD)(meaning: a high-pressure system that goes from west to east with an associated cold front)(there is warm air above the cold front that covers the cloud)(cold front/air means 32 degrees or lower)(the above 32 degrees air is above the dome of cold air)(warm air= 32+ degree weather).

CAD Picture(from Wikipedia)(it shows and explains it better than I do):

Do you see how it uses areas of the DMV? Anyways, the clouds and precipitation fall in the above 32 degrees weather, but when the precip reaches the dome, the precip turns into either snow, sleet, or freezing rain. The type of precip depends on the depth of the cold air. If the dome is really high, we will get snow, if the dome is medium, we will get sleet, if it is somewhat low, we will get ice. Anyways, the NWS has put a winter weather advisory for all of MoCo, which starts at 7AM Saturday, and ends at 7PM Saturday(for the whole county). The advisory says, "Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one-tenth of an inch." It also says that the wintry mix will turn into the plain cold rain. WUSA 9 has released its first call for the wintry mix! I will show the ice and snow/sleet accumulation maps.

As you can see, most of MoCo is in the D-1" area, and Damascus(and extreme eastern/northern Clarksburg) is in the 1-2"+ area(this means that 1-2" will fall but there is a lot more potential for more than that). It says that snow and ice will accumulate quickly(because Friday and Saturday temps will barely rise above freezing). All snow and ice will stick, so anything untreated will have snow. This is a very interesting map because usually places more north and west get more snow, but this time, places north and EAST get more snow. Howard County has more of its county in the 1-2"+ area. Anyways, let's look at the ice accumulation map!

Most of MoCo is in the "Up To 0.1"" of ice area(Glazing-0.1" of ice), while the same area of MoCo who are in the 1-2"+ of snow are in the 0.1-0.25" of ice area. This means that there is enough ice to make sidewalks and roads slick and ice-covered, but in Damascus, there is a possibility of downed tree branches, and even power outages(0.25" of ice is enough to cause power outages and downed tree branches)(0.25"> of ice is enough to do those, but there is less of a chance that they will happen). If this happened on Friday, I would give 3.5/4 snowflakes for this storm. Ice is not a joke, and we're not talking about a glazing(like in December). No, we are talking about 0.01-0.25" of ice, and that's serious(in Damascus). This time, the biggest accumulations are north and far west of MoCo(Eastern West Virginia)(Frederick County, Hagerstown). East and South are the big losers here(most people will see glazing east and south of MoCo, or no ice at all). This much ice will make everything slick, and because it's so cold today and tomorrow, at least 85% of the ice will stick(probably 99% of it). Anyways, let's look at the NWS maps now!

As you can see, the eastern 13/16 of MoCo is in the 1-2" of snow area, while the other 3/16 is in the less than 1-inch area. This is the total amount of snow that will fall during this storm, and this is the most optimistic snow map out of all the snow maps I am going to show. However, the advisory says amounts "up to an inch", but this map shows at least an inch for almost the whole county, and some areas of the county could receive 2 inches, but most areas will get between 1 and 2 inches of snow(1-2"). I don't know why they don't say up to 2 inches in the advisory, according to this map, the advisory should say snow and sleet accumulations up to 2 inches. This is the most optimistic map about snow accumulations, because most of the other maps say a Dusting-1" for most of the county, with 1"+(1-2" usually) for Damascus. Let's look at the ice accumulation maps now!

As you can see most of MoCo is expected to have some ice accumulation(at least 0.01" of ice for most of the county). However, I think that the part of the county that won't get ice will get some ice, but it will be a light glaze. This shows 0.01-0.1" for most of the county, which is enough to make everything slick, but Damascus and a few other areas will get at least 0.1" of ice and could get a quarter-inch of ice. North and west of MoCo are expected to get the most ice. There's not really that much else to say about this map, because I already said it in the WUSA 9 map. Now let's look at the NBC 4 map!

As you can see, 3/4 of MoCo is in the "Up to 1" area(Dusting to 1 inch) and the other 1/4 is in the 1-2" of snow area. Even though this isn't a lot of snow, every flake that falls will stick and make icy and slick surfaces. An inch of snow will definitely cause lots of impacts and delays, it will be slick outside, and with the sleet and freezing rain, the roads/sidewalks will become really icy and slick and become very dangerous. The snow will also be much harder to remove, so I recommend salting roads and sidewalks before the storm.  In this map, areas north and west will get the most snow. NBC 4 doesn't have an ice accumulation map, so we will move on to the next maps!(Note: I won't be explaining the maps because the maps are very similar and everything I will say about them will already be said).

As you can see, most of MoCo is in the 1>" of snow area, while Damascus is in the 1-2" of snow area. The amount of snow, according to this map, depends on how north or south you are(east and west don't really matter). North of MoCo will get 1-2", while south of MoCo will get less than an inch. (This doesn't have an ice map). Let's move on to Fox 5's map!

Most of MoCo is in the C-1" of snow area(some slick roads here), and the upper 1/4 of MoCo is in the 1-3" of snow area. All of MoCo will have snow-covered and slick roads according to this map.  If you live north of MoCo(and west of Baltimore County), you will see 1-3" of snow. (No ice map).



Verdict for this storm: Moderate Impacts(4.25/10 for areas south of Gaithersburg)(4.6/10 for Gaithersburg and northern MoCo)(5/10 for Damascus) (1 being lowest impacts, 10 being the highest).



I put "Moderate Impacts" for this storm. Why? Well, it's because of that all snow that falls will stick to all surfaces if the surfaces are untreated, which means slick and snow-covered roads and sidewalks. There won't be that much snow, so I wouldn't put this in high impacts, but there is freezing rain, and that will make the snow harder to shovel and there is enough ice to create slick roads and sidewalks. There might be a little gap where nothing falls, and that slightly lowers the impacts, but still, temps will be below freezing, and the snow will freeze, making it harder to shovel and plow. Also, models typically tend to underestimate how long the below-freezing air will stay in these CAD events, so the whole county could see freezing rain until 5:30 PM Saturday. Damascus could have freezing rain until 7:30-8:30 PM(when temps will be at or below freezing). When it gets dark, it is going to be hard to see whether roads are wet or slick, so drivers will have to be careful at night and drive slowly, otherwise, a surface that looks wet may be icy, and their vehicle could skid. Walking slowly and carefully is advised, otherwise, you might slip. The freezing rain will make this system moderately impacted and will be the main concern, along with the sleet. Sleet basically has the same impacts as snow, so snow accumulations could also include sleet and could create totals of more than an inch of snow in areas that were expected not to get snow. The wintry mix will become rain at around 5:30- 8:30 PM(when temps will be above freezing). The impacts would be significantly higher if the storm wasn't on a weekend. Ice won't really melt when the rain falls, so even at 9PM, there could still be some slick roads. Sunday morning could have slick spots, but probably not. Overall, this storm is not that big in terms of snow accumulations but will create some impact due to the freezing rain.

Friday Wintry Mix Prediction(Cold Air Damming)

Prediction: 1 snowflake(2% chance of early release, delay, or closure)(98% chance of full day)
There is a very low chance of snow on Friday, even in upcounty, and even if there is, it will be in the night. Even if the snow fell in the afternoon, there probably won't be enough impact to delay, close, or early release schools(it probably won't stick to anything even if there is snow in the afternoon/morning). The wintry mix will happen on Saturday. 3AM-7PM is crucial timing for this storm(storm probably will be over after 7, but still could be some precip falling after 7). Sorry for the delays on the update(now impacts of storm/winter precip accumulations), I had lots of homework and things to do that I couldn't get the update out on Wednesday or Thursday, I apologize for the inconvenience. 

Winter Weather Threat Friday to Saturday?

 There is a threat for winter weather(snow/ice/wintry mix) on Friday(this includes Saturday). Right now the timings are unsure, whether or not it will be on Friday or only on Saturday, but right now Friday night to Saturday evening seems to be our best bet. This is definitely something to keep an eye on, as some models are showing snow amounts that could cause winter storm WARNINGS(first warnings of the winter/decade?!)(5"+), and the NWS thinks so to because all of MoCo is in the "slight" winter storm threat for not only Friday 7AM-Saturday 7AM, but also 7:00AM Saturday-7AM Sunday(this winter storm could last for 2 days)! Because of this, the winter weather could start early enough on Friday to cause an early release, which is what I will be keeping an eye on, if the system starts early enough on Friday that it could cause an early release(like Jan 7), but right now that wouldn't be happening. This could be out first moderate snowstorm, and not clippers, we could see half a foot of snow, which is snowstorm material. This should definitely cause some disruptions(if the snow falls) to Saturday plans, so consider canceling or rescheduling your plans on Saturday(watch the weather daily to see if enough snow/ice/sleet could cause some issues to weekend plans). However, there is confusion between models. Along with the snow, there could also be ice(freezing rain), mixed rain/snow(white rain), and/or mix. The argument is where and when. Right now, the precipitation for the whole county is so messy that I cannot explain it. Here is what the Euro thinks(for 3PM Sat):

See what I mean? I put a color guide on the bottom so you can interpret it. There are random spots of all types of precipitation everywhere. Now, let's look at the ICON's(German Model) interpretation(3 PM Saturday) of what happens there.

This is much easier to interpret. As you can see, there is ice and regular rain. Most of the county will have ice, while the other parts get a cold rain. Both models show ice, and you know from my previous posts that a small quantity of ice is enough to cause lots of issues. Anyways, let's look at snow depths now(the models most amount of snow at 1 period).

Euro(5-9 PM):

ICON(3-6PM):

GFS(3-6PM)(this is the 6 inches!):

Canadian Model(CA)(3-6PM):

As you can see, all of the models have their biggest amounts of snow at 3-6PM, Saturday(except for Euro). The GFS and CA show that we have a chance for 6"(GFS shows almost the whole county)(CA shows only the small eastern portion of MoCo). The ICON shows 1.6-2.8" for our county. The Euro shows 0.8-1.6" which is the least optimistic snow amount out of these models. We will get a better idea of this system on Wednesday, and I will keep you updated on this.

Gallery(NWS pictures).

Guide to looking at maps below(yellow color means "slight" threat).

Fri 7AM- Saturday 7AM Threat

Sat 7AM-Sun 7AM Threat

Wednesday 1-08-2020 Prediction

This storm seemed like a bust at first, but then all of us got our "thump"(very heavy rate of snow falling in a small amount of time) and we got the expected amount. The amount of snow all of us got in MoCo is 0.5-3", depending on where you live, but I have heard reports far west of the county getting close to 6". I got 2" of snow in Gaithersburg. It snowed so heavily in that thump that when I wiped the snow off of my car, there was already a coating on the car 1 minute and 30 seconds later. If the snow rate in that "thump" lasted even longer we could get 6-12", or even more than that. Main roads are mostly wet with some slush in them, but sidewalks and secondary/neighborhood roads? Oh they are a mess. My neighborhood road has snow on it, slush, and some black ice. Anyways, the reason we are talking about delays/closures is because temps tonight for the whole county will be below 32 degrees. Even where roads are wet, they will become icy and slick because the temps will refreeze the water to ice. I have seen reports from Clarksburg and Damascus where everything is snow covered and slushy. Tomorrow will be a huge mess. Temps aren't supposed to be above 32 degrees until 8-9AM tomorrow, and the ice, snow, and slush will make the morning commute and rush hour a mess. There is a special weather statement for all of MoCo, stating about slush, snow, and water refreezing into ice, and says that even if a surface looks wet it might be ice, so to be careful about where you step and be cautious about black ice, slush, etc. Even if elementary schoolers went to school at the normal time, there would still be slush and/or snow, and even ice(depending where they live). Slush is the main concern for everyone in the county, until 10AM to 12PM(again, depending where they live). NBC 4 thinks we will have a delay(they said to plan on sleeping in) and I can see where they come from, but I also see why other people think we won't have a delay. A delay would not only give crews and the sun 2 extra hours to treat and clear the snow, but also kids would be able to see the ice/slush/snow easier.

Prediction: 3 snowflakes
I am leaning towards a delay and not a closure because temps need to be below freezing for longer than 9 AM for a closure or same temps but 3.5"+ of snow. A delay would help a lot, and going on time would make roads and sidewalks filled with ice, snow, and slush, and would make the chance of students getting severe injuries a lot higher than if they delayed. By 11AM/12PM, most snow should be cleared and there won't be that much slush, and MCPS wants to get as much school hours as they can while considering their students safety, so a delay would be the best option for MCPS(even though most students want a day off :P). Opening on time would have lots of injuries, crashes, and even the possibility of buses sliding off roads.

Tuesday Threat Update and Prediction

 UPDATE: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MOCO. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED. IT ALSO SAYS VISIBILITY COULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 OF A MILE AT TIMES, AND COULD EXCEED 1 INCH OF SNOW PER HOUR!

This snow threat has just boomed since yesterday, and all the models(except HRRR) show at least 0.4 inches of snow. The Euro shows 1.2-1.6"(1.6-2" in some areas)(anything in parentheses is the majority amount for the county), the ICON shows 0.4-0.8 inches(0.8-1.2" in some areas, 0.2-0.4" in some areas), and the GFS shows 0.8-1.2"(1.2-1.6" for NE areas, 1.6-2" for Damascus, and 0.4-0.8 inches for Bethesda). This storm will start at 11AM-12PM, starting as rain for some, mixed rain/snow for most, and pure snow for NE areas. By 1-2PM, it should be all snow for the whole county, and by 7PM the system should be out. Most of the snow should stick on the grass(more snow sticks on sidewalks/roads the more north you go), but visibility is a problem and so is slush. Temps should be hovering above freezing, so snow will have a harder time sticking to the ground. However, it will be a huge mess. Mixed rain and snow will cause slush, and since temps are 33-35 degrees, slush can come as an outcome of this storm, mainly in our north areas. Slush is slippery, and it will be a mess outside. Even if temps are above freezing, it could still stick to sidewalks and neighborhood roads. Since temps are 33-35, if the snow falls at a moderate to heavy rate, it could stick to areas students will walk on, and then those areas will become slippery and students will be vulnerable to falling and getting serious injuries. By 3PM, there could already be an inch of snow on the ground, and at1PM there will only be a coating. If enough snow falls at a heavy enough rate, it will stick to sidewalks and roads and/or make those surfaces very slick. Anyways, let's look at the maps now! First, we have our map from the NWS. PREDICTION:  2 snowflakes(delay chance is early release chance)(65% chance of early release)(30% chance of no school)(modified)(see rating system)(not 2.5 snowflakes because closure chance not as high)(look down for details)

The NWS predicts 1-2" FOR THE WHOLE COUNTY and 2-3" for the upper quarter of MoCo. This means that the NWS thinks 1-3 inches throughout the whole county. 1 inch of snow should be enough to cause issues throughout the whole county, and it gets far worse the more north you go. Some places could get 3 inches! This is enough snow to cause an early dismissal. This will definitely cause issues with the afternoon commute. If this forecast is correct, after school activities will be cancelled, and this will probably cause an early release. 3-4PM is supposed to be when the snow is at its heaviest. That is when lots of students get dismissed(elementary school students), and some high school students(Poolesville High School students) leave school at 4:30PM, and it is probably already  snowed enough to make everything slick, slushy, and icy. January is the coldest month of the year, so sun angle isn't a factor and temps should find a way to make surfaces at least a little bit slushy. Now, lets at Capital Weather Gang's map!

As you can see, most of MoCo is in the 1-3" area.The C-2" area says that most of the accumulation is on the grass, but the 1-3" area says SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE. This means that if slick roads are possible, slick/slushy sidewalks are likely. All of MoCo (according to this map) won't be getting a mix. Just because the C-2" area doesn't have as much snow potential as the 1-3" area doesn't mean that they will get less snow than the dark blue(dark blue will get more snow than the light blue area)(most likely). It just means that they don't have as much potential than the dark blue area to get more than 2 inches; they just probably won't get over 2"(a place in C-2" could get 2" and a place in 1-3" could get 1"). A place from the light blue area can get more than the dark blue area; it is just less likely. This is a map that I agree with; however, I think the C-2" area(not including MoCo) will have mixing in some spots. This map(if most correct) would cancel after school activities, and we would have an early release(if this map was the most correct I would go 57/43 with the early release).(this map was updated due to the new advisories). (1-3" area could get 3-5" if the totals are more than what is forecasted, C-2" area would get 2-4" if more snow falls than what is expected, 1-3" area could get 1"> if less snow falls than what is expected, C-2" area could get a bare ground if less snow falls than expected)(bare ground means that snow will fall but it won't stick to anything, not even grass). Now, let us look at WUSA 9's map!

(UPDATE: ALL OF MOCO IS IN 1-3" OF SNOW AREA NOW! IT ALSO DOESN'T SAY SNOW WILL MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES! 65% chance of early release!) This map has about 51% of MoCo in the D-1" area, while the other 49% is in the 1-2" area. However, since MoCo is so close to the 1-2" area, for MoCo (specifically), this map will show 0.65-2" for the whole county. The map says that the gray area's accumulations will be mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces(i think for only the gray area?!), so the impact wouldn't be that bad in those areas(maybe some delays)(same with the white area but much more delays and some cancellations). Despite how much snow these maps show, after school activities will be cancelled. This could still cause some slick spots, 0.85"+ is enough to make roads slippery, at least a little bit. This could still definitely cause an early release, I am just not as confident as I would be compared to the other two maps we already saw. Anyways, let's look at the NBC 4 map now

As you can see, 5/6 of MoCo is in the 2-4" area, while the other 1/6 is in 1-2" area. This is enough snow to cause delays and even cancellations(3"+ of snow usually will cancel school if it snows the whole day)! This is far more than enough snow to cause roads/sidewalks to be slick and/or slushy and even snow covered! If this was correct I would go (75% of early release, 25% full day). Now, let's look at the details for my prediction!

Mixed rain/snow turning into snow around 12 PM and ending at 7PM will really put a wrench into the afternoon/evening commute. The snow amounts are 1"+ for lots of places in the county, and the snow is expected to fall at a moderate rate. By 1 PM, there could be a coating on the ground, and by 3 PM, there could be an inch! The snow will fall fast, and even if temps are 32<, the snow will be able to fall fast enough to stick to bus stops and sidewalks, and even secondary/neighborhood roads in upcounty will be affected! There is a huge difference of snow on the ground between 1 PM and 3PM, and by 3 PM, there should be enough snow that has fallen on the ground to make surfaces(sidewalks, bus stops, etc.) slushy and/or slick, especially in upcounty! If they release early, students will get to home easily with no injuries due to weather! Visibility will be low, and it will take longer for students to get home if released on the normal time. The reason I think there won't be a delay or closure is because snow will fall after the delay time and it would have no effect, and no closure because it won't be snowing the whole day, only the afternoon, so closing wouldn't happen, because MCPS would try to get as much hours of school they can while still taking the student's safety into consideration.I am leaning towards a delay because there will be a significant difference of snow on the ground if released early compared to normal dismissal. Upcounty will be a huge mess, and the amount of snow we are talking about is enough to cause some issues on the roads(more of a slush/slick problem, not snow accumulation problem). It will be dangerous for students to walk on slushy sidewalks, and even slick spots because these increase the chances drastically of a student breaking a bone and falling. There are some places that won't see a plow for a long time, so the snow will be an issue for who knows long before it gets removed. Also, since winter weather advisories have just been released for the whole county this increases the chance of an early release(since all of MoCo is in the advisory). The advisory tells people that this is something that could disrupt their  plans and will make people aware  that there is a winter weather threat that could be potentially harmful for your health. It also says at times visibility could be less than 1/2 of a mile at times, and that snowfall rates could EXCEED 1 inch per snow per hour. These are near blizzard conditions(visibility). Walkers will suffer a lot, because they can't see that well and 1 inch per hour+? Walkers will suffer even more(more snow to walk through and snow will stick to almost everything so more slick and slushy spots) and snow will stick to almost everything, since the rate is so heavy that it will reduce surface temps to 32(maybe even lower), that there will be slush and black ice everywhere. This is all if MCPS doesn't release early. If they do, all of this will be avoided. If they don't, well... R.I.P. Walkers. This could cause a delay the next day(Wednesday), so stay tuned for that(temps 32> Wednesday Morning and Tuesday Night).

Tuesday Snow Threat(first snow threat of the new decade/year!)

On Tuesday, there is a chance for winter weather. The weather is supposed to be mixed rain and snow, with some all snow weather happening for places in N&W MoCo(including Northern downcounty), and some all rain for places in S&E MoCo. The accumulations of this won't be significant(Coating-1"), but it could have a threat and is definitely something to watch out for. The timings of this storm would give us an early release(the timings are 12:30PM-7PM)(4PM for GFS)(if there would be an impact). Temperatures should be above freezing when the precipitation falls, so the snow/mixed snow and rain won't probably won't stick on roads/sidewalks, but more on grassy areas. The NWS has given a yellow rating(slight threat)(threat could cause minor disruptions) for N and W MoCo, but no threat for S and E MoCo. This is probably is because in Southern MoCo, there will mostly rain. In terms of accumulations, there would be a trace(0.05") to 1 inch of snow. Icy spots and snow sticking wouldn't really be an issue, but slush could. Slush is as bad as snow sticking, but I am not even sure there would be slush to begin with. Because of this, I don't think there will be an impact. However, temps will fall below freezing Tuesday night, so it is possible that the rain/snow could refreeze and could cause some icy spots the next day. I will be watching this and give an update tomorrow about this threat.

Winter Forecasts for the 2019-2020 Winter!(snowfall)(FIRST POST OF 2020!)

Yes, this is the moment you have been waiting for, the WINTER FORECASTS FOR 2019-2020! In my opinion, these forecasts predict good snow for this year(average to above average), but others predict below average.

Here is FOX 5's forecast:               

 

Fox 5 predicts 25-35 inches for the upper 1/3 of the county and 15-25 inches for the other 2/3 of the county. The more north you live in the county, the more snow you will get(I would say we are in the 20-30 inches range).

 

   

Here is NBC 4's winter forecast for this year:

  NBC 4's forecast is a jackpot for snow. Southern MoCo will get 18-26"(amounts to the higher end) and Middle and Northern MoCo will get 28-37"(that is a lot!). According to Doug Kammerer, he is going for about 50% more snowfall than average. "I think we’re going to see a couple of pretty good storms, meaning 6 to 10" snowstorms or 6 to 12" snowstorms," said Doug.

Here is WUSA 9's forecast:

 WUSA 9 expects a La Nada winter this season. This means that there could be a lot of snow, or very little snow. They are saying that cities that are in the beltway(basically the southern half of MoCo) will receive below-average snow, but since we are on the edges, I will say that the Southern half of MoCo gets 1-3 inches below average, probably less than that. This winter map is predicting is average to above-average snowfall this year(about). The other half of MoCo should be getting above-average snow. We are in the 10-30" range(15-30 is better estimated for the whole county).

Here is ABC 7's forecast:

This shows awfully below-average snow for our county. 7-22 inches?! We get can 7 inches and more in 1 snowstorm, this is the forecast that is the least optimistic. Most of MoCo is in the 12-22" area, while the other part of MoCo is in the 7-17" area. This forecast is extremely below average, but not as bad as the 2017 and 2018 winter.

The Capital Weather Gang's Forecast:

According to Capital Weather Gang, the 2nd half of winter(very late January to end of winter)(late March) will be harsh(lots of snow and cold temps) after a gentle start(non-significant snow events)(4">)(normal temps). That means the whole month of February(and early March) will be the prime time for snowstorms. Anyways, 55% of MoCo is in the 14-24" range(places 1000'< have a higher chance of getting 24"+) and the other northern 45% is in the 22-34" area(areas 1000'< will most likely have 34"+ of snow). Montgomery County(specifically) will get 15-25" of snow. This map shows around average to slightly below average snowfall. Now, let's look at the average of these maps!

Fox 5: 15-35" of snow.

NBC 4: 18-37" of snow.

WUSA 9: 19-30" of snow. 

ABC 7: 7-22" of snow.

Capital Weather Gang: 15-25" of snow.

AND THE AVERAGE OF THESE MAPS ARE... 14.8 inches- 29.8 inches of snow! Is this below average snow for MoCo. Above-average? The average amount of snow(for MoCo) is 16-27" of snow(Bethesda-Damascus)! So, the 2020 winter will have an average of 22.3" this year(snow amount most people will get). The average amount of snow is 21.5"(for the county as a whole)! So, the 2020 winter will have(according to these maps) will have above average snowfall(0.8" more!)!! WE WILL HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL! This is good if you are a snow lover and/or you want more snow days(and delays). NBC 4 has the most optimistic map for snowfall, while ABC 7 is the least optimistic map for snowfall. Overall, we will get(according to my predictions)(based on the maps) 3-7 snow days this year(we already had one)! Delays won't be predicted because delays depend on how much small snow events there are(Alberta clippers) and freezing rain(melts before 10:45 AM). There is no predictions for freezing rain, so it is way harder to predict. If I had to take a wild guess, I would say 5-13 delays this year, though I am pretty sure I will be wrong. We also have subzero temperatures and wind chills to deal with, so it makes it even harder for me to predict. This winter should be good, so stay tuned to my posts! Thanks for reading!