The tornado watch has been trimmed down to only Maryland now.
4:25 PM:
The tornado threat is starting to decrease a little bit, but that doesn't mean that the threat is completely gone. There could still be some tornadoes. Flash flooding is still a concern though. The threat is enough to still pay attention to it.
I'll update this post as new information comes in. I didn't make a post earlier because of some issues with the blog management, sorry about that!
Hello everyone! This is a test post from my new account that will be running this blog. This post won't be detailed or lengthy.
The tornado risk is at its greatest for the next few hours(2:30 PM Onward). 2000-2500 surface CAPE is in most locations in the DMV, and there has already been a wedge tornado in Anne Arundel County, including many others so far. There is a flash flood watch for the entire region, with a flash flood warning in Frederick county.
1-3 inches, with up to 5 inches of rain are possible in some areas.
Hurricane Ida is expected to bring severe storms and tornadoes to the Mid-Atlantic. A good part of Maryland is in an Enhanced Risk(D2, as of 5 PM EDT), for a 10% tornado risk, which is a lot, especially for the Mid-Atlantic. There is also a significant(moderate, red) flooding threat for today and tomorrow. The timing of Ida is between today and Thursday morning.
As you can see, almost all of our region is in the red section, meaning a moderate risk of flash flooding. Areas in the red part can expect "numerous flash floods", with significant flash flooding events likely.
As you can see, for most of Maryland, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather. We usually only get slight/marginal risk, and an enhanced risk doesn't happen that often.
This is the tornado risk for our area(Green = 2%, Brown = 5%, Yellow = 10%). The chances don't seem that high, until you realize that the chances are for every location in those colors to see a tornado.
This is the wind chance. Areas in the yellow have a 15% chance of seeing 58 MPH winds or higher for every location in that yellow spot.
Instabillity tomorrow around the region will be 1500-2000 MLCAPE, which is more than enough to spawn tornadoes. There will also be a lot of shear(up to 70 kts of shear, with 80 kts in isolated areas). The sheer is enough for any thunderstorm updraft to have the potential to spawn a tornado.
TORNADO WARNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE! SEEK SHELTER IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE IN THE WARNING!
5:25 PM:
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for areas near the Mason-Dixon line. 60 MPH wind, quarter sized hail, and a tornado is all possible with this storm.
3:35 PM:
The threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds should start to increase slightly as the afternoon passes. "Low level shear / SRH remains sufficient to support some tornado threat." - SPC
3:20 PM:
Tornado warning for Allegany and Washington County until 3:45 PM EDT. Seek shelter in a basement or the lowest floor, with the least amount of windows(stay away from windows).
2:50 PM:
A recorded 78F dew point has been recorded in Baltimore and DC! This is a very rare event to get dew points this high(source: capital weather gang), and it means that the air is super moist and humid.
2:10 PM:
There is some signs of rotation in the storm near Ellicott City.
2:00 PM:
There is some rotation in the storm near Waterloo. I'll be keeping an eye on that.
1:50 PM:
It turns out that the best chance for tornadic activity is the I-95 area and east at this point(info from Capital Weather Gang).
1:25 PM:
As storms with heavy rainfall rates(some have rates of 1-2" per hour), conditions become more favorable for isolated, brief tornadoes.
Hello everyone! This is going to be the first weather post I'll be posting for the first time in a month. And to start it off, we are dealing with a tornado outbreak from the ghost of tropical depression Fred! Yes, you heard that right, a tornado outbreak. Veteran storm chaser, Reed Timmer has put our region in the "TORNADO OUTBREAK region".
Reed Timmer has made a premiere about the tornado outbreak for our area.
There is a tornado watch for our region until 8 PM. Small marble sized hail and 70 MPH wind gusts are possible, plus a few tornadoes. This event continues until 8 PM EDT.
There is also a flash flood watch for almost all of the region too, except for our southeastern areas. Rain may fall at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour, and storm totals in isolated areas may even reach up to 3 inches.
MODEL RUN: 15z HRRR
The HRRR shows 1000-2250 MLCAPE for Montgomery County, and up to 2500 MLCAPE for the rest of Maryland. This is more than enough to supply fuel for severe storms.(6PM Eastern).
The 15z HRRR shows around up to 35 kt of shear in Montgomery County, and around 40+ in some parts of Maryland. This is somewhat decent and can help make storms. 4 PM Eastern.
The 15z HRRR shows -5 to -8C of lift, which is a very good amount for storms to spawn.(3P Eastern)
The HRRR shows crazy dew ppoints, with up to 80F dew points in some of Maryland! Thats's crazy, and is very moist and humid for storms to form.
The SPC shows a slight risk for most of Maryland, with a 5% tornado chance for every location to see a tornado in the brown(top right) and in the bottom right, a chance for 58+ MPH winds for any location in the green.
Since this is my first post after a while, I'm not going to go too much into detail. I will update this post as new information comes in.
During the severe weather events of July 1, 2021, there was a tornado warning issued for downtown DC and parts of Arlington County.
As you can see from this picture, any place in the red area was in the tornado warning. Last Friday(July 2nd, 2021), the NWS put out a public statement, confirming 2 tornadoes. Let's take a look at the first one, in Arlington County.
This is the tornado that touched down in Arlington County. It lasted for around 6 minutes, from 8:59 PM EDT - 9:05 PM EDT, and on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, the tornado was an EF-1, with its peak winds at 90 MPH. Thankfully there was no injuries or deaths from this tornado. The maximum width(of the funnel/tornado itself) at its peak was 125 yards, and it covered 4.4 miles. In the picture, the red path is where the tornado crossed, with damage reports shown to determine the strength of the tornado. Remember, the tornado is given a rating on the damage it causes, not its peak wind. From the damage it creates, we can estimate the wind speed of the tornado.
This is the tornado that touched down in DC, specifically in H St Corridor NE-Kingman Park. This tornado earned an EF0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, and it lasted for 2 minutes, from 9:08-9:10 PM EDT. At its peak, the winds were 80 MPH. It's maximum width at its peak was 75 yards, and it covered 0.75 miles. The red line shows where the tornado crossed, and the damage reports. The main damage reports here were just trees being down, and large limbs being snapped. Thankfully there were no injuries or deaths.
Tornadoes in DC don't usually happen, and damage from storms are usually from straight-line winds, so this is pretty surprising! Thankfully, no injuries or deaths were recorded from these tornadoes, or the storms that move through as far as I know.
As you have seen, there has been many tornadoes today in Maryland. An isolated tornado was possible, and I wasn't too surprised when I saw the first warning go up, but there was way more than expected. And it was mainly in the areas where there wasn't even a marginal risk; just a general risk. This event was much worse than expected. And, this event is far from over. The event will last into Tuesday. There still is a threat for isolated tornadoes. You should be prepared to shelter in the night and have ways to get severe/tornado alerts. A weather radio will come in handy. Be prepared. It will hopefully get better. But you never know, since today's tornadoes in the TSTM risk and the sheer amount of them were unexpected.
9:30 PM:
Tornado warning for baltimore county. Seek shelter if you are there.
9:00 PM:
Tornado warning for Westminster and Hampstead, MD. Seek shelter now!
8:55 PM:
SVR TStorm warning for Mount Airy. Wind up to 60 MPH, penny sized hail, and a tornado is possible
8:35 PM:
Tornado warning for Carroll County... seek shelter now.
8:20 PM:
THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8:45 PM. IT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCY! TAKE COVER NOW! TREES WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED, DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, ARE POSSIBLE, AND MOBILE HOMES MIGHT BE BADLY DAMAGED OR COMPLETELY DESTROYED. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE IN THE WARNING! PLEASE TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY!
7:45 PM:
There is a rain wrapped tornado for Frederick, Discovery, Libertytown, and Linganore Maryland. GET INSIDE AND SEEK SHELTER NOW!!
7:10 PM:
The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for our area, stating the chance for an isolated threat for damaging winds and a brief tornado in the next few hours. A weather watch is unlikely though.
7:00 PM:
There have been multiple tornado warnings and severe t storms throughout the region, I wasn't able to cover them because I was on a walk. I will try to cover them now.
5:40 PM
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for Lake Holiday, VA. A tornado is possible, and wind up to 60 mph and penny sized hail can be expected.
There is a severe weather risk for tomorrow, and not much has really changed. Most of the areas who are in the marginal risk are near or south of I-70. The main threat is damaging winds, heavy downpours, and small hail. Isolated flooding is possible with these thunderstorms due to heavy downpours and rainfall. The timing is mainly from 2 PM - 12 AM Tuesday.
As you can see, most of the region is under a marginal risk. The main threat is damaging winds.
The SPC gives us a 5% chance to see damaging(55+ mph) winds 25 miles away from any given point.
The 16z HRRR run shows around 1000 MLCAPE throughout the region(around 6 PM EDT), with some areas a bit over 1000 MLCAPE (MoCo is in the 700-1000 MLCAPE range). The NWS forecasters discussion for our area states an instability at around 1000 CAPE later today. Some breaks of sun will occur throughout the region today, allowing instability to build.
The 16z HRRR(6 PM EDT) shows around 35-55 KT of shear in the atmosphere for a good chunk of the region, with MoCo in the 40-55 KT shear area. This will be enough to cause some damaging winds. The NWS forecasters discussion for our area states 40-45 KT of vertical shear, which would be enough to cause strong tstorms to become severe locally.
This is the 16z HRRR in MoCo at 6 PM EDT. Although today is mainly a wind threat, some tornadoes are not out of the question at all. This sounding shows a good amount of shear at 500mb, with good LCL placement and a good amount of CAPE(1000). The SigTor parameter is around 1, meaning that this tornado is around an EF0. The storm slinky is a "C" shape, which is decent for tornadoes, and the critical angle is not bad either. In hours(3 PM EDT onwards) before this, they show marginal severe weather, and even after 6 PM EDT, it still shows severe weather for us. As said before, the main threat is damaging winds, so I assume for most of the "marginal severe hazards" on the HRRR soundings will be for strong winds and maybe small hail.
There is another severe threat on Wednesday, and I think that has much more potential than this one. Some models are showing a lot of CAPE in the atmosphere. I will make a post tomorrow about it. I will update this post whenever something new happens(nowcast).
Today, was truly, a remarkable day. I don't think that this has ever happened before, even before I was born in this area. There was a tornado today, along with snow showers today, IN FEBRUARY. There were reports of tornadoes in Poolesville/Dickerson, Westminster, Southern Fredrick County, and Leesburg(Confirmed EF-0 tornado in Leesburg, VA). The damage done was a lot. A wind advisory with gusts 50-60 mph+ today, plus with a severe thunderstorm before 9AM. We didn't get tons of rain, instead, we got... something way better. This will go down in weather history. And to top it all off, there were snow showers tonight, in Damascus and GBurg(probably more places in MoCo as well). Snow in the mountains, blizzard conditions in New England, a bomb cyclone: this storm was definitely remarkable. Today will go down in weather history. All I have to say is... Maryland weather is weird. Update: Snow is becoming much heavier. There is a confirmed EF-1 tornado in Cecil County, MD.
Westminster, MD Tornado Damage(credit: Joseph Bowers)
Flurries after a tornado warning in Damascus, MD. (Credit: Ryan Douglas).
