Massive Cooldown for the Start of Fall + Winter News

 Have you felt it yet? The nights are getting colder, average temps are decreasing, and some areas have some leaves changing already. Winter is coming. For the start of astrological fall, we are going to have a massive cooldown. And it is going to last into October.

And also... the elephant in the room. Winter 2021-22. Although I think its still too early at the time of writing to make a full-on winter forecast for our region(as of September 18, 2021), there are some really encouraging signs for winter enthusiasts. I'll explain more later in this article.

But first, the cooldown. This is going to be happening soon. From tomorrow onwards from the twenty-third, the entire country is going to go through a cooldown.

As you can see, the blue moves across the country and is in Maryland for a while. Then, another cold front, that is much stronger, and lasts much longer, comes in! The GFS is showing cold front after cold front(blue = below average temperatures). Temps in the 40's(lows for the most part) and in the 50's(highs for the most part) can be expected.

This is the same time period, but this parameter shows how much below/above average temps are compared to normal temps for this time of year. And as you can see, it is showing dark blue, even purple and pink in some areas! This means that this cold front will bring much below average temps. However, since it is October, it won't be that cold, but it will still be very cold for fall standards, not so much for winter standards.

Now the winter. I won't say too much, but I think we are going to get a lot of snow this winter. I could be wrong, but from the info we have right now, this winter is going to seem epic. 

First of all. 2016 blizzard. Every 6/7 years we get a huge storm/blizzard. 1996 to 2003 to 2010 to 2016 to 2022?? The trend has been switching to every 6 years now, and its definitely possible that we will get a really big storm this year. These storms are enough to get almost every place in our region above average in terms of snow.

Second of all, the polar vortex and teleconnections. I'll talk about the polar vortex first. We are expected to have a stratospheric polar vortex this year. What does this mean? This usually means more arctic blasts, and a weaker polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex actually means more cold temperatures for the Lower 48, because if the polar vortex is strong, it contains all of the air in Greenland and the North Pole. If its weaker, the polar vortex's cold air goes down south, which is what we want. 

Image from:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-returns-usa-europe-winter-2021-2022-fa/

This shows the polar vortex during February. As you can see, there is cold air over the northeast(including Maryland).

And the next part: the QBO. The QBO is expected to be in an easterly phase, which is good for winter lovers. It usually means colder winters for the USA, a weaker jetstream, and sudden warming events in the stratosphere, which weakens the polar vortex. And for the cherry on top, we are expected to be in a weak La Nina this year, which actually enhances the effect of the QBO. It looks like we may have a strong negative AO which was the same thing that we had in the historic winter of 2010, where almost 5 feet of snow fell on the nation's capital.

But again, this is still far out. I expect to start seeing more winter forecasts specifically for our area around late October-early November. By then we will know more details. This could change drastically... but as of now its looking amazing for snow. Hopefully it still holds up! That's all for now, thanks for reading!

Flooding and Tornadoes from Ida

4:35 PM

The tornado watch has been trimmed down to only Maryland now.

4:25 PM:

The tornado threat is starting to decrease a little bit, but that doesn't mean that the threat is completely gone. There could still be some tornadoes. Flash flooding is still a concern though. The threat is enough to still pay attention to it.

I'll update this post as new information comes in. I didn't make a post earlier because of some issues with the blog management, sorry about that!

Hello everyone! This is a test post from my new account that will be running this blog. This post won't be detailed or lengthy.

The tornado risk is at its greatest for the next few hours(2:30 PM Onward). 2000-2500 surface CAPE is in most locations in the DMV, and there has already been a wedge tornado in Anne Arundel County, including many others so far. There is a flash flood watch for the entire region, with a flash flood warning in Frederick county.

1-3 inches, with up to 5 inches of rain are possible in some areas.