There is a threat for winter weather(snow/ice/wintry mix) on Friday(this includes Saturday). Right now the timings are unsure, whether or not it will be on Friday or only on Saturday, but right now Friday night to Saturday evening seems to be our best bet. This is definitely something to keep an eye on, as some models are showing snow amounts that could cause winter storm WARNINGS(first warnings of the winter/decade?!)(5"+), and the NWS thinks so to because all of MoCo is in the "slight" winter storm threat for not only Friday 7AM-Saturday 7AM, but also 7:00AM Saturday-7AM Sunday(this winter storm could last for 2 days)! Because of this, the winter weather could start early enough on Friday to cause an early release, which is what I will be keeping an eye on, if the system starts early enough on Friday that it could cause an early release(like Jan 7), but right now that wouldn't be happening. This could be out first moderate snowstorm, and not clippers, we could see half a foot of snow, which is snowstorm material. This should definitely cause some disruptions(if the snow falls) to Saturday plans, so consider canceling or rescheduling your plans on Saturday(watch the weather daily to see if enough snow/ice/sleet could cause some issues to weekend plans). However, there is confusion between models. Along with the snow, there could also be ice(freezing rain), mixed rain/snow(white rain), and/or mix. The argument is where and when. Right now, the precipitation for the whole county is so messy that I cannot explain it. Here is what the Euro thinks(for 3PM Sat):
See what I mean? I put a color guide on the bottom so you can interpret it. There are random spots of all types of precipitation everywhere. Now, let's look at the ICON's(German Model) interpretation(3 PM Saturday) of what happens there.
This is much easier to interpret. As you can see, there is ice and regular rain. Most of the county will have ice, while the other parts get a cold rain. Both models show ice, and you know from my previous posts that a small quantity of ice is enough to cause lots of issues. Anyways, let's look at snow depths now(the models most amount of snow at 1 period).
Euro(5-9 PM):
ICON(3-6PM):
GFS(3-6PM)(this is the 6 inches!):
Canadian Model(CA)(3-6PM):
As you can see, all of the models have their biggest amounts of snow at 3-6PM, Saturday(except for Euro). The GFS and CA show that we have a chance for 6"(GFS shows almost the whole county)(CA shows only the small eastern portion of MoCo). The ICON shows 1.6-2.8" for our county. The Euro shows 0.8-1.6" which is the least optimistic snow amount out of these models. We will get a better idea of this system on Wednesday, and I will keep you updated on this.
Gallery(NWS pictures).
Guide to looking at maps below(yellow color means "slight" threat).
Fri 7AM- Saturday 7AM Threat
Sat 7AM-Sun 7AM Threat
This is much easier to interpret. As you can see, there is ice and regular rain. Most of the county will have ice, while the other parts get a cold rain. Both models show ice, and you know from my previous posts that a small quantity of ice is enough to cause lots of issues. Anyways, let's look at snow depths now(the models most amount of snow at 1 period).
Euro(5-9 PM):
Canadian Model(CA)(3-6PM):
As you can see, all of the models have their biggest amounts of snow at 3-6PM, Saturday(except for Euro). The GFS and CA show that we have a chance for 6"(GFS shows almost the whole county)(CA shows only the small eastern portion of MoCo). The ICON shows 1.6-2.8" for our county. The Euro shows 0.8-1.6" which is the least optimistic snow amount out of these models. We will get a better idea of this system on Wednesday, and I will keep you updated on this.
Gallery(NWS pictures).
Sat 7AM-Sun 7AM Threat
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