Severe Threat Today and High Wind Watch

 Not only is there a severe threat today, but there is also a high wind watch for strong winds coming in with the cold front that will be moving through. Today is a marginal risk day for strong, potentially damaging winds from strong to severe thunderstorms.

As you can see, areas just north of DC are in the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, and the main threat from these thunderstorms will be strong, potentially damaging winds and heavy downpours. The greatest risk will be from 2-10 PM tonight. Areas in the light green may see thunder/lightning, but storms there aren't expected to have strong enough winds to deem them severe. 

Areas in the green have a 5% chance to see 65 mph or greater winds 25 miles away from any given point. As stated before, this is mainly a wind threat, and not a tornado or hail threat.

This is a sounding from the NAM, and it's decent. The CAPE and shear are not too great, but there would be enough for a isolated thunderstorm.

At the same time(hour 9), at around 5 PM EDT, this is the amount of lift there is, and I must say, there is a pretty good amount! Clouds will be limiting instability at the moment though. This will provide for some isolated T-Storms that may or may not be severe.

FROM THE SPC:

"Confidence is low across most of the MRGL risk area for robust thunderstorms. However, there is considerable diversity across the ensemble of available 12z CAM solutions, with most areas showing promise for a strong storm or two in at least one member. Therefore will maintain the ongoing risk area and hope for better clarity in the afternoon outlook update." There hasn't been much changes in the forecast, and the some members of the ensembles show indicators for strong storms in most of the marginal risk areas. 

Now, for the high wind watches across the region. Areas highlighted in the brownish-orange color are under a high wind watch, which are mostly areas north of DC and areas east of Allegany County. There is potential for wind gusts to reach 60 MPH. This high wind watch is from Friday morning to (late) Friday night. The wind direction will be northwest, which will bring in cold air and signify a cold front. The highest, gustiest winds may occur in 2 waves, one Friday afternoon and one Friday evening. These winds could blow down trees and power lines, creating the potential for widespread power outages. Travel could be made much harder. This may be upgraded to a warning.

A high wind warning in 2018 was able to close school for a day. Will it happen again? Well, I'm not so sure. During 2018, gusts were recorded up to 75-80 MPH, and we are only talking about around 60 MPH gusts in this situation. And this is only a watch. I think there would have to be stronger winds to warrant a higher chance of closure for in person and potentially virtual. Right now it's undecided. I need more data and need to get closer to the event to even try to make a prediction. And it would have to be upgraded to a warning. Right now, I would assume that there would be school for mostly everyone, but we will see. I will make a new post in the evening with more data to try to make a prediction. Until then, stay safe, and I'll see you in the next post! Thanks for reading.