Hurricane Ida is expected to bring severe storms and tornadoes to the Mid-Atlantic. A good part of Maryland is in an Enhanced Risk(D2, as of 5 PM EDT), for a 10% tornado risk, which is a lot, especially for the Mid-Atlantic. There is also a significant(moderate, red) flooding threat for today and tomorrow. The timing of Ida is between today and Thursday morning.
As you can see, for most of Maryland, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather. We usually only get slight/marginal risk, and an enhanced risk doesn't happen that often.
This is the tornado risk for our area(Green = 2%, Brown = 5%, Yellow = 10%). The chances don't seem that high, until you realize that the chances are for every location in those colors to see a tornado.
This is the wind chance. Areas in the yellow have a 15% chance of seeing 58 MPH winds or higher for every location in that yellow spot.
Instabillity tomorrow around the region will be 1500-2000 MLCAPE, which is more than enough to spawn tornadoes. There will also be a lot of shear(up to 70 kts of shear, with 80 kts in isolated areas). The sheer is enough for any thunderstorm updraft to have the potential to spawn a tornado.
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