Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Spring Snow Possibility and Other Weather News

There is a snow threat next week(spring snow?). Some models show a system that could bring MoCo some snow. The German model(ICON) gives us the most snow for this system(out of all the models). It shows some areas in MoCo getting up to 6 inches of snow. It doesn't mean MoCo is the "jackpot" for this storm(in the ICON snow depth map). The "jackpot" area of this snowstorm is far out west.Remember that this is over five days away, so take model snow amounts with a grain of salt. It has to be below freezing for the snow to stick, and because it's almost April, snowfall rates have to be heavy, and roads and sidewalks in some places in the county may not need any winter preparations at all. Also, just so you know, 3+ inch snow events in D.C after Mar 20 are rare.




 Spring:

March 19, 2019, is the last full day of winter. When you wake up on March 20, 2019, it will technically still be winter. Spring, in the Northern Hemisphere, will start at 5:58 PM. If you are reading the edited version, it's already spring.The D.C cherry blossoms are supposed to bloom somewhere between April 1-6. Some of the cherry blossoms have already bloomed in D.C, for example, in the Washington Monument. I expect the cherry blossoms to bloom around April 2-4.



Winter 2019-2020:

According to the NWS, weak El Nino conditions are expected to last throughout spring(80% chance) and throughout summer(60% chance). What is El Nino though? According to NOAA, "The term El NiƱo refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific." UPDATE: The Bureau of Meteorology, Austraila says there's a 70% chance that there will be an El Nino next year, raising the watch to an alert. Verified ac   
El Ninos can give the Mid-Atlantic above average snow, depending on the El Nino strength. A moderate El Nino gives us the best chance for above average snow. The moderate El Nino in 2009-2010 gave D.C its most snowfall ever in a year. It gave D.C(DCA) 56.1 inches of snow that year! That is 40.1 more inches of snow than the average snowfall amount(15.4 inches)! But, why does this matter?  The hype is that this will become a moderate El Nino in November. If this happens, then it will be a 2009-2010 winter again.

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