Final Prediction for Wednesday Snow

This system is already happening as I write. It is raining and temperatures are starting to drop. It went from 56 to 52 at 3:45 PM, in Gaithersburg. I looked at the radar a couple minutes ago, and it already shows snow/ice moving into the DMV(mostly in the mountains). We are not expecting any ice though, only snow, sleet and rain. Anyways, there is a winter weather advisory(first!) for North and West MoCo and a Special Weather Statement for Southern and Eastern MoCo. The advisory expects 1-2 inches for North and Western MoCo and the statement expects less than an inch for Southern and East MoCo. For the whole county, the winter forecast is Trace-2 inches, and the snow/mix is expected to come between 12AM to 4AM Wednesday. If you live north and west of MoCo, such as in Urbana, you will see more snow. Even though I say the more north/west the more snow, this is one of those situations where if you go too north(border of Pennsylvania and Maryland), you might not get as much snow as a place such as Damascus. Since the threat is just a day away, we won't be looking at models anymore and news channel forecasts instead. Lets look at the NWS map now.

REPORT: 8:20 PM: I got a report that snow was falling in Damascus. This is much, much earlier than expected. The cold air will push down to Germantown, then Gaithersburg, then Rockville, then Bethesda.

As you can see, the map shows less than an inch for 67% of MoCo and 1-2 inches for Northern
MoCo. There is not much more to say about this. Let's move on to WUSA 9's map.

The map shows Trace-1 for 55% of MoCo while the other 45% is in the Trace-2 area. This doesn't actually mean that the northern side of MoCo will get over an inch, it is just saying that there is more potential for higher snow amounts in the area. That area can still get a trace of snow. Now, lets look at the FOX 5 map.

FOX 5 shows all of the county in the "Coating to 2" Of Slush/Snow area. This is saying that slush/snow won't only accumulate in the grass, it is showing that there MAY be slush/snow on the sidewalks and secondary roads. This is the kind of situation that would give us a 2 hour delay. Again, it doesn't say that there will be over an inch, it is saying that there could be 2 inches. In this system, the slush will make more of an impact than snow. Now, lets look at NBC 4's map.

NBC 4 has 2/3 of MoCo in the 1-2 inches area, while the other 1/3 is in the Coating-1 inch area. This is showing that 2/3 of MoCo WILL get at least an inch, but no more than 2 inches. The other 1/3 of MoCo will probably get near an inch, since they are close to the 1-2 inches area(0.60 inches and higher). The other 1/3 of MoCo can still get less than 0.5 inches(or a coating). Now, I am going to show you ABC 7's map.

This map... is actually kind of difficult to interpret. Why? This is because the different colors blend in with the other colors. Anyways, according to my interpretation, 75% of MoCo is in the 1" is the most area and the other 25% is in the 1-2 inches area(anything that is darker blue than the light blue is 1-2 inches area). Finally, lets look at the Capital Weather Gang's map(note that this may not be the latest map because this is the latest map I can get without subscribing to them).

This map shows 2/3 of MoCo in the Trace to 1" area, while the other 2/3 is in the Coating to 2" area. For the 2/3 of the county that is in the T-1" area, it says most accumulation on grassy areas, but some accumulations can be on the sidewalks. This area's boom(higher than expected outcome) is 1-2 inches, and the bust(lower than the expected outcome) is no snow at all. The other 1/3 of the county is in the Coating to 2" area. This is the area where the most accumulation is expected. The boom for this area is 2-4" and the bust is bare ground(snow but no accumulation, even grass). Finally, lets move on to my FINAL prediction.

Prediction for Wednesday 12/11/2019: 2 snowflakes

This is one of the first times that I am 50/50 between a decision.  I am not leaning to a full day or a delay, I am 50% percent sure of a delay and 50% sure of a full day. I can't decide. Like I said in an earlier post, snow in the early morning that ends around 7-8 AM can really cause some issues. It wouldn't be a good idea to send students walking in the snow/slush, but at the same time, the accumulations and surface temperatures may not be enough to even cause much of an issue. There will be more slush than snow, so the slush will be an issue. MCPS has not done any delay/closure/early dismissal due to inclement weather conditions, so they might be a little easier on the decision to delay or not(needs a lot more snow to close). A delay would really help, because it would give time for the temps to rise and for crews to treat the snow. It will be really cold, so some water could freeze and there could be slick spots(likely in Northern and Western MoCo). Roads will be fine, but sidewalks and neighborhoods may have slush(secondary roads could have slush(45% chance). It all just depends how much snow falls. Over .80 inches will cause slush issues. There is an advisory for North and West MoCo, which will impact MCPS's decision. It all depends how cold it is and how much snow it falls. There might be a delay, so prepare for a full day because there is a 50% chance(it could happen it could not happen).

UPDATE: REPORTING ONLY A COATING(1/2 a centimeter of snow) in Gaithersburg. How much snow did you get? School opening on time.Storm wasn't a bust but snow was to the lower end.