Monday Snow/Ice Threat Update

Not much people are really aware of this threat, except for a few people, which is kinda weird, considering the system is TOMORROW. Anyways, there is no maps from the news channels/Capital Weather Gang, but I assume by tonight more people will be watching the threat and making maps. Right now, we only have raw model data and the NWS map. Anyways, it looks like an inch is the most amount of snow most of the county will get, but I think that there is the chance of 2 inches of snow. But, the threat will also include... FREEZING RAIN! What is the good thing about that? Any amount of freezing rain (even 0.01 inches!) will cause issues. Why? Because its pure ice, and ice is very slippery. Combined with the accumulated snow, that will cause lots of issues, one of them being the snow being harder to remove. It will change into all rain though. The timing of this storm(for the whole county)(wintry weather) is 11PM Sunday to 9AM Monday(GFS shows until 12PM Monday)(there is a chance of a wintry mix/snow at 10 PM Sunday). After 9 AM, the whole county is switched to rain(the majority of the models say so), but the rain will eventually melt the snow(not all of it), but it also may actually make the conditions worse. In our N and W areas, the rain might make the snow into slush, which will make it unsafe for longer. I am sure plows and salt trucks will try their best to prevent this, but on neighborhoods, plows won't get to the neighborhoods quick enough to prevent this(they will prevent this on main and most likely secondary roads). Anyways,  I will show you some data now(snow depth)(when the accumulations are at its most).

Euro(10AM): 1.2- 2.8 inches(most of the county on 1.6-2 inches, 1 area in 2-2.8 inches, and Damascus is in 1.2-1.6 inches)(the east loses, even if you are north of MoCo and even Maryland).

GFS(10AM): 0.4 inches-2 inches(most of county in 0.8-1.2 inch area)(extreme southern MoCo in 0.4-0.8 inches area)(N and W MoCo in 1.2-1.6 inches area)(Barnesville in 1.6-2 inches area)(the more north you go the more snow you get)(this model shows a lot of freezing rain/ice in the area)(I couldn't find ice accumulations).

CONUS HD(7AM): 0.04-0.8 inches(Western-Southern MoCo in 0.04-0.2 inches)(rest of county in 0.2-0.4 inches)(Poolesville, Clarksburg, and Barnesville get 0.4-0.8 inches of snow).

According to these models, the highest accumulation time is around 7-10 AM, which means that the timing is perfect for a delay since students leave around 6-9 AM for school. 1 or more inches of snow combined with ice is an unsafe commute for school, so MCPS might have to put a delay for the crews and the rain to melt the ice/snow(closure isn't an option since by 11AM-12PM snow/ice will be off the ground and it will be pure rain)(the cold air has to last until 12 PM for a closure in my opinion). Now, let's look at the NWS maps!

As you can see, most of the county(3/4) is in the less than an inch area, while the other 1/4 is in the 1-2 inches area. This is a map that I agree with, but I would move the 1-2 a little bit more south. Now, let's look at what the NWS has to say about the amounts for MoCo(exact)!

As you can see, 5 places in the county will see less than an inch(Burtonsville, Chevy Chase, Rockville, Silver Spring, Takoma Park), while Damascus, Germantown, and Poolesville will see about an inch. There is an above 50% chance for the whole county to see at least a coating(0.1 inches). There is a 1-65% chance that the whole county will see above an inch of snow(only Damascus and Poolesville have an above 50% chance that they will see over an inch)! Now, let's look at the NWS ice accumulation map!

As you can see, about 55% of the county is in the 0.01-0.10 inches of ice area. Even though this is very little, any amount of ice is enough to cause issues. Now that we looked at all the data that we can get,I can conclude that this is all we need to cause a delay, snow, sleet, and ice! My snowflake prediction should come out by 7:45PM EST.