Now, everyone is aware of this threat and is making maps/predictions for this threats. Not all of the news channels maps are out, but they will be out soon. Anyways, there is an advisory for N&W MoCo, while there is a special weather statement for S&E MoCo. The advisory says 1-2 inches of snow, with a light glaze of ice(still enough to cause issues)! The timings say the system will start 1-4 AM, and the snow will change to a wintry mix of ice/sleet. It says by Monday afternoon, it should be all rain. The statement says that the snow/sleet is possible Monday morning, mainly after 4 AM. The accumulations say up to 1 inch, with no expectations of ice. It should be mostly rain by 11 AM-12 PM. This system is difficult to predict if there will delays or not, but NOAA has a map predicting if there will be delays or not. Now, lets look at it!
According to this, about 50.01% of the county will see some ice accumlation. It is not expected to be over a tenth of ice, but a few hundredths of ice. This is still enough to cause delays and impacts. Like I said before in my earlier posts, even a small amount of ice is enough to cause widespread delays/closures and impacts. Now let's look at the NWS snowfall map! UPDATE: REPORTING 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN GAITHERSBURG.
The NWS upped their snowfall totals, with about 45% of the county in the 1-2" area now. The other 55% is in the <1" area, but since they are close to the 1-2 inches area, the other 55% of MoCo should be in the 0.5-1" areas. Now lets look at what ABC 7 thinks will happen in our area!
ABC 7 says light snow to ice to regular rain for the whole county, while Damascus is in the snow to ice area(accumulations likely!). This map says that delays are likely. Now, with all this info, it is time to make my snowflake prediction!
Snowflake Prediction: 3 snowflakes(find ratings at the ratings page)
Unlike the last time we had a system like this(last Tuesday), this is way bigger of a threat. Ice, with snow, and with the mix changing to rain around 11AM-12PM, has a much higher chance of a delay and closure becomes a possibility. In our N and W suburbs, it will be a mess. Temperatures will be below or at the freezing mark tonight, so snow and ice will stick to sidewalks, and even roads(most likely salted though). It has been a lot colder lately, and it wasn't that warm today (<50 degrees). It will be snowing at when students leave for school, with snow sticking in most places with the temps below or at freezing, so a delay will most likely be needed. About the closure chance. Yes, I do think there is a chance of closure, but this is because the cold air(wintry mix) will stay long enough in some places that when the high schoolers/middle schoolers go to school at a delayed opening, there will still be ice/snow. The closure will happen IF the cold air stays long enough(until 11:45AM-12:00PM or longer) for the snow/ice to accumulate. They will send students on a delay if the rain starts at 10-11AM. If the amounts are to the higher end, I would say a closure(3.5 snowflakes), but not much people are saying/suggesting a closure and there will have to be ice accumulations for at least 75% of the county. If the whole county has an inch or more with ice accumulations that make slick spots, there will be a closure. S&E MoCo is in a Special Weather Statement, which implies that there might be impacts, but they will be very insignificant. An advisory means that there will be impacts, and they might be somewhat significant. A closure could happen even with the same amounts, but the accumulations have to stay for long. They make a decision for the whole county, so they might "ignore" that and close. There will have to be a little bit more ice/snow/sleet for a closure(like 0.1 inches more for snow/sleet)(0.01-0.03" more ice), and they have to last long(10:50AM and longer).(UPDATE: NO SCHOOL FOR MCPS 12/16/2019).
As you can see, MoCo(as a whole) is in the Probable zone, which means that there is a 70-85% chance of a delay, so for our county, they are leaning towards a delay. I can see why they would say that, since there's ice and snow happening in the rush hour, and it shouldn't be rain until 11AM-12PM. Lets look at where NBC 4 thinks the impacts will be!
About 60% of MoCo is in the "Biggest Impacts" area, while the other 40% is in the minor impacts. Northern Rockville and any place north than that will have the biggest impacts. This means that delay are likely and closures are possible. Since the majority of MoCo will have the biggest impacts(and since MCPS makes a decision for the whole county), they might have to delay. We are going to look at WUSA 9's snowfall map.
As you can see from WUSA 9's map, about 86% of MoCo is in the Trace-1" area, while Damascus and Barnesville is in the 1-2" area. And here is the bad part: After you go south of MoCo, there is no snow accumulation expected. That means that we are the edge of snow accumulations. This will not give us much impacts, but we still have the freezing rain that may convince MCPS for a delay. Howard Bernstein himself said in a tweet that this advisory/system will be more on the ice and sleet. Now lets look at the ice accumulation map by NWS.
Snowflake Prediction: 3 snowflakes(find ratings at the ratings page)
Unlike the last time we had a system like this(last Tuesday), this is way bigger of a threat. Ice, with snow, and with the mix changing to rain around 11AM-12PM, has a much higher chance of a delay and closure becomes a possibility. In our N and W suburbs, it will be a mess. Temperatures will be below or at the freezing mark tonight, so snow and ice will stick to sidewalks, and even roads(most likely salted though). It has been a lot colder lately, and it wasn't that warm today (<50 degrees). It will be snowing at when students leave for school, with snow sticking in most places with the temps below or at freezing, so a delay will most likely be needed. About the closure chance. Yes, I do think there is a chance of closure, but this is because the cold air(wintry mix) will stay long enough in some places that when the high schoolers/middle schoolers go to school at a delayed opening, there will still be ice/snow. The closure will happen IF the cold air stays long enough(until 11:45AM-12:00PM or longer) for the snow/ice to accumulate. They will send students on a delay if the rain starts at 10-11AM. If the amounts are to the higher end, I would say a closure(3.5 snowflakes), but not much people are saying/suggesting a closure and there will have to be ice accumulations for at least 75% of the county. If the whole county has an inch or more with ice accumulations that make slick spots, there will be a closure. S&E MoCo is in a Special Weather Statement, which implies that there might be impacts, but they will be very insignificant. An advisory means that there will be impacts, and they might be somewhat significant. A closure could happen even with the same amounts, but the accumulations have to stay for long. They make a decision for the whole county, so they might "ignore" that and close. There will have to be a little bit more ice/snow/sleet for a closure(like 0.1 inches more for snow/sleet)(0.01-0.03" more ice), and they have to last long(10:50AM and longer).(UPDATE: NO SCHOOL FOR MCPS 12/16/2019).
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