THERE COULD BE A HUGE SNOWSTORM FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY!

Third Update: 

 There are now watches in areas. This threat is becoming more and more serious.  Northern MoCo and areas west and north of us are also in a watch for Wednesday. They expect over 7 inches of snow possible. There is no watch for southern MoCo and areas south of it(DC included) because there is expected to be a lot of mixing/rain that will bring the overall totals down, which I can understand. However, I think southern MoCo should still get the watch, just maybe for less snow. I am not the NWS however, and they are waiting for models to come in this afternoon, since once we get our afternoon models, we have a pretty good lock on what will be happening. Then, if everything holds up, warnings will be issued soon.

Second Update (before I go to bed): 

The chances of a snowstorm are starting to lock in; however, tomorrow will determine what we might be seeing on Wednesday. Tomorrow, most of the models will lock onto some sort of solution. Now, we just gotta hope that the models stay the way they are.

The chances of snow are increasing on Wednesday....

This also sums up the threat pretty well, however it doesn't give us a specified forecast for Maryland; let alone MoCo itself.

UPDATE: We could see some snow TOMORROW at 10AM-3PM, if you live in the northern part of MoCo. It won't be anything significant though. You might see a coating in the northern areas, but that's about it.

First, I am SO sorry that I haven't been doing any further posts about this. I had a lot of schoolwork, and I just found out about this. But it's ok, I am still gonna post this post. There is a HUGE winter threat from Wednesday to Thursday, and I am talking 6+ inches, winter storm WARNING level. This could be the biggest snow threat since Jan 2019, when I got 14 inches of snow from that storm.

For time's sake, I will only be using 3 weather maps, the NWS, Fox 5, and WUSA 9.

National Weather Service:

This picture shows the threat for a winter storm on Wednesday, and everywhere north and west of I-95 is in the moderate threat section, while south and east of I-95 is the slight threat section. Half of our county is split by I-95, so the side northern to I-95 would have the greatest threat for more than 6+ inches of snow, while the side south of I-95 would have a lower threat for a significant winter storm. I think that for a winter storm warning to be in place, there needs to be 5+ inches of snow potential.

This shows most of our county in the 30-50% chance range for a winter storm watch criteria and shows our area getting dark blue(presumably heavy) snow, but the heavy rain line(green/dark green represents rain) is also very close to our county.

So the question here is: Will our county receive snow or just plain old rain? For the upper side, the answer is more likely snow.  For the bottom side of our county, there's a 50% chance of rain, and a 50% chance of snow. There could also be a mix there, which I think might happen.

WUSA 9:

As you can see from this map, 80-90% of the county are in the 6-10 inches of snow range, while the very bottom areas of our county are in the 3-6 inches of snow range, however, since the bottom-most county areas are close to the 6-10" of snow area, then according to this map, our county will receive 4.6-10" of snow! This map is one of the more... optimistic ones when it comes to this winter threat.

Fox 5:

According to this map, the upper half of this county is in the 6-12 inches of snow range, while the bottom half is in the 3-6 inches of snow range. This is one of their first looks though, and it will probably change! I agree with this map the most because it's considering the rain/snow line battle for the southern part of our county. 

All of these maps show at least 3 inches of snow for our county, which is good! I am still vary of this threat, because this threat could instantly die and be nothing more than some good old rain. Our county is in the absolute middle. If the snow/rain line went up, we would most likely see rain, however, if the snow/rain line went down, we would more likely see heavier, more consistent snow.

Models:

The American and Euro model(the Euro model is the most well respected and historically accurate model) are still hanging on to a significant winter storm for our area. 

The GFS(American) model shows 4 inches for areas closer to DC while they show Upper MoCo getting over 9-10+ inches. 

The Euro model shows Upper MoCo getting OVER A FOOT(that's right) while southern MoCo and areas close to DC getting 8 inches. 8 inches is still a significant winter threat. The Euro model is also the most accurate.

The Canadian model shows 4-6" of snow for our region. 

The UKMET, however, shows 1-6 inches of snow for our region, the northern part getting close to 6 inches, while southern MoCo and DC only gets close to 1 inch of snow.

Keep in mind that these models are changing constantly! So what you see today will probably seem different from tomorrow. That's why you should never take threats of snow seriously if they are a week away. When the designated threat is 3-4 days from happening, and it's still there, then you can start to take the threat more seriously. And I am pretty sure that a lot of MoCo will see a brief period of a wintry mix(sleet, freezing rain, graupel, some snow mixed in) during the Wednesday storm, which will only make conditions worse actually.

The Possibility of... School Cancellations?

With news of a possible winter storm going around, there comes another question. Will this have an impact on schools? Normally the answer would be yes, but in 2020, in this situation... it's a little bit different. Or, a LOT different. With this virtual environment happening, the possibility for school closures goes down drastically. The only way we could not have school is if there was a power outage. This wouldn't happen with small storms but with over 12+ inches it's definitely a possibility. It's a possibility for even this storm! 

Let's take our approach differently this time. Instead of "Will schools close?", let's say "How will schools close?" Well, for schools to close, there have to be Zoom/power outages or really really bad conditions outside that it would be nearly impossible for Zoom to work properly. However, food distribution would definitely be impacted, quite a lot, and may even be shut down. And, cleanup will be much more difficult when COVID-19 is raging on outside. However, I think it's too early to say if schools would close. And, as this is(might be) the first storm of this season, our criteria for a virtual snow day will be set. So, we have almost no experience to go off from. 

I will keep you updated about the chance of an impact on school, and this winter storm system.