Wednesday-Thursday Snowstorm Update

The winter storm watch has been extended for all of MoCo, and I expect warnings will be issued soon. Everything, for the most part has held up, in terms of snow totals that is. There were reports of wet snow in a lot of areas in this county, but it was nothing significant. Let's just jump straight in!

Models:

This is the American model. It has changed... somewhat. It shows less snowfall but still shows our area getting about 3.5-8 inches of snow, same trend(more north and west more snow).

This model is the European model, and it has been standing pretty still. This is also the most historically correct model. It shows MoCo getting 6-9+ inches of snow.

At this point, the models aren't that useful anymore(they still are), because the weather forecasts start to lock in. The models have pretty much already locked onto a winter storm, and a significant one at that too.

Fox 5:

Fox 5 shows 3-6 inches for 3/4 of the county, and 6-12 inches for the upper quarter of the county. That I-95 corridor really determines whether you will see lots of snow or not that much. North and west of I-95 will see more snow, while south and east of I-95 will see less. The main amount of snowfall will fall during Wednesday night and early AM hours of Thursday. Mike Thomas(Fox 5 meteorologist) didn't want to change their forecast from earlier today since it held up pretty good.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 shows 4-8 inches for most of the county, and 1-4 inches for the southern part of the county. Also, it's very difficult to see, but a very small portion of extreme northwestern MoCo will see 8-12+ inches of snow. MoCo is really the snow gradient in this storm, meaning that what you will see in Damascus will be much different than what you see from Silver Spring. A mile difference and you could see a massive change in conditions. I agree with this one a lot.

ABC 7:

Similar to NBC 4's map, most of MoCo will see 4-8 inches of snow, while southern MoCo(1/4 of county) will see 1-4 inches of snow. This one is very similar to NBC 4's map so I won't spend any more time on this.

The National Weather Service:

This map is a mess, and just really shows how much MoCo is the battle zone between rain and snow. Southern MoCo will see 4-6 inches of snow, mid-county and lower upcounty(Gaithersburg, lower Germantown, Olney, etc.) will see 6-8 inches of snow, upcounty will see 8-12" of snow, and Damascus(northern side of upcounty) will see 12-18 inches of snow. Some people in upper Maryland, between PA's border, could see... up to 2 feet? That's quite a lot. If the battle area moved down just 10-25 miles, a lot of us would be seeing more than a foot, maybe even 2 feet! Basically, anyone north or west of I-95 has a really good chance at seeing 6+ inches of snow.

This has not occurred since 2016, 5 years ago, during the monster blizzard! This will probably be the most snow we have seen since 2019, or maybe 2016! Places above I-95 are in the high threat area, which means this(in their own words): "High threat of high impact winter storm. Potential impacts include significant travel delays, closures, and threats to life and property.  Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family."

Places below I-95 are in the enhanced threat, which is still quite significant. This threat has become really significant, and borderline severe! Now do I expect totals to be like the 2016 blizzard? No, I doubt it. Quite a lot actually. But we could easily receive over a foot.

According to the NWS, the chances of us receiving over 4 inches is pretty high, about 50-90%+!

Here are the winter storm watches:

Upcounty:

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northern and
  western Maryland, central, northern, northwest and western
  Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. Snow
  will most likely overspread the area later Wednesday morning
  into Wednesday afternoon. The heaviest snow is most likely late
  Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Potential impacts
  include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to
  minimize impact on you and your family.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Down-County:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than 5 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Maryland as well as portions
  northern and central Virginia

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. Snow
  will most likely overspread the area later Wednesday morning
  into Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation may mix with rain and
  sleet at times later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

WUSA 9:

This map has changed the most! They were predicting 6-10 inches of snow for MoCo before the change, and now they only predict 1-3 inches for our county! The reason these totals dropped is that they think that the warmer air will overcome the colder air and bring more rain than snow. I think that this is overestimating the warmer air, mainly for upper MoCo. 1-3 inches is only advisory level anyways, and won't cause that much damage. I don't think this map is that accurate, I would bring upper MoCo to at least 3-5 inches, but that's just me. I am not a meteorologist. 

So at this point, it's almost confirmed that there will be snow on Wednesday-Thursday, and I think it might be safe to say that there will be at least 3+ inches of snow, 6+ inches for our northern areas. But what impact will it have?

The only thing that's almost confirmed is that all MCPS offices that involve physical activity will be closed and shutdown, including food distribution. However, in our northern areas, if it snows hard and fast enough, there could be some spontaneous power outages. If there are gusty winds, downed trees and power outages should be expected. But... I think MCPS will stay open unless there is a Google or Zoom outage(like today, but it wasn't long enough to cause damage for schools). It could happen if there are bad conditions. There could also be some freezing rain during the mix.

That's pretty much about it for today, I will see you tomorrow!