100th Post! Friday Storm Update and Sunday Storm News

 Well, this is the 100th post of this blog. 🎉But we also have a lot of storm potentials in the next upcoming days/week. Let's talk about the most recent one: Friday. This event will be a light, mostly insignificant event. There is a special weather statement for Northern MoCo, that states:

 "There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Friday morning commute. A period of snow, possibly mixed with sleet and freezing rain is POSSIBLE (a 50 percent chance) Friday morning across the northwestern suburbs of the Baltimore / Washington metro area with potentially up to an inch of snow along with a light ice accumulation on area roads. If this threat does materialize during the Friday morning rush-hour, many roads could turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays."

Even though it says up to an inch of snow, I still think that the most we will see out of this event will be from a coating to a half-inch, if we even see any accumulation. We might see all rain too, that's definitely a likely possibillity. Temps should mainly remain above freezing, but they may dip down a bit. The NWS shows less than an inch from this weak "storm"(image below).

Now let's talk about the Sunday threat. Models are trying to pull it back in for our area and with the exception of the GEM(CMC), they all show some snow on Sunday. This storm, if it does materialize, will be a short-duration event, not a long-duration event like we just had. They are all showing a northern trend. That usually doesn't work for us, but in this case, it actually does. However, even with that being said, we should wait until tomorrow just to see if it's a fluke(if it is it will disappear tomorrow), or if it will be an actual threat.

GFS:

The GFS shows the storm coming in from the south at around morning.  Once it comes, it starts as moderate-heavy snow, then starts to taper off into light-moderate snow. It shows the storm done by the afternoon hours. Surface and upper air temps(850mb) are below freezing, so they should be able to support snow.

NAM(12km):

Now, the NAM, compared to the other models, is the most bullish. It shows heavy snowfall rates in a short period of time. It shows the storm starting in the early morning hours on Sunday and ending in the afternoon hours. Compared to the other models, it shows less bullish rates and snow accumulation. However, the trends seem to be favoring the NAM at the moment.

European Model:

The European model barely shows light snow hitting our area. This is good though, we aren't in the bullseye yet. If you are in the bullseye this far out, the bullseye usually will shift far away from you. This is an improvement to last time.

Now, this is something to watch. Our county, and most of the DMV, are at a risk for heavy snow, from the time period of February 12-February 18. This is a slight risk, so a 20% chance, but still encouraging to see.

In conclusion, we have many storm threats to watch. Models are trying to bring back snow on Sunday, and by tomorrow, we will know if this will be a threat or just nothing.