Final Monday Clipper Update

 This will be a minor event, and will also be a quick one. This event is a snow to mix to rain type of event. However, the timing of the storm could disrupt the morning rush hour. The snow is expected to generally start after sunrise, but a lot of storms this year have started earlier than expected, so I think it could start before sunrise. The impacts would be greater if it did. There is a winter weather advisory for Northern MoCo, stating snow accumulations of 1-3 inches of snow, and a special weather statement for Southern MoCo, stating the possibility of snow impacting the rush hour. We will see how it plays out, if temps are colder than expected I think we could see an advisory in Southern MoCo. Let's look at some models.

GFS:

The GFS shows light snow turning over into moderate-heavy rain. Snow rates will be moderate, and possibly heavy at times. Be vary if traveling.

The GFS shows almost no snow. I don't agree with this.

European:

The European model shows snow moving in around 7-10 AM and then shows it turning into a mix, and then eventually, rain. Northern zones have the most time with snow and mixing before turning into rain. I know that it doesn't show snow, but that's only because it shows 6-hour blocks, so it likely shows some sort of snow before turning into a mix. The same applies to the mix turning into plain old rain.

The European shows 1-4 inches of snow, with 3-4 inches in Damascus and 1-2 inches in Bethesda. This is assuming a 10:1 ratio of course, and I assume Kuchera ratios have less snow, but I don't have access to it. 

HRRR:

The HRRR shows snow turning into a mix but also shows the snow trying to fight back a bit at the end of the storm. It shows some rain getting in, but mainly in southern MoCo. This seems to be one of the more colder solutions. If heavy precipitation caused good dynamic cooling, this solution could be possible. We should be below freezing on the onset and slowly rise above freezing as we go later into the day.

The HRRR shows 1-3 inches of snow, with the most snow in Damascus and the least snow in Bethesda.

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows the snow starting around 8-10 AM and then turning into an icy mix before turning into rain.

The NAM shows up to an inch of snow, with the most in Damascus and least in Bethesda.

The NAM, unfortunately, shows a lot of ice; 0.15 - 0.3 inches of ice, which would be enough to break some trees and cause spotty power outages. Hopefully, this doesn't play out and we see less ice and more snow.

NWS: 

The NWS shows 1-2 inches for most of Northern MoCo, less than one inch in Southern MoCo, and 2-3 inches in Damascus. 

For this clipper, a trace to an inch of snow possible in Southern MoCo, with localized areas possibly seeing a bit more, and 1-3 inches in Northern MoCo. The most snow will be in Damascus, and in Northern MoCo, like usual. Everyone will start out as snow, then turn into a mix, eventually, turning into all rain. Northern areas will see the longest period of time with snow and mixed precipitation. I don't expect much in ice accumulation if there is even any. Temps will rise above freezing around noon, but snow can still fall while it's at or above 32. The storm may start before sunrise(even though it's expected to start after sunrise), due to a history of storms this year starting a bit earlier than expected. This will be a low-impact storm, but still should be taken carefully. Snow may fall at a moderate, and maybe even heavy rate at times.