Monday Clipper Update

First, unfortunately for us snow lovers, this won't produce that much snow. The amount is light; however, the timing is not good. It seems to be hitting after sunrise, but storms this year tend to start a little bit earlier than expected, and if it does start before sunrise, the impact will be greater. Nonetheless, it starts at 6-10 AM, which is when the morning rush-hour starts. This seems to be a snow to mix to a cold rain type of event. This storm is a quick hitter though, so any amount of snow will accumulate fast.

GFS:

The GFS shows heavy snow turning into heavy rain before the storm is done. It shows the storm starting around 7-10 AM and shows the storm ending by the late afternoon/early evening(around 4p).

The American model shows 1-3 inches of snow, with the most snow in NE MoCo(Damascus).

European:

The European shows a quick transition to rain(there is snow, it just doesn't show it) before heading off into the sea.

The European model shows 1-3 inches of snow, with the most snow in NE MoCo(10:1 ratio).

CMC:

The CMC shows the storm starting as snow around 7a - 12p on Thursday, and shows it turning into rain before moving out at 4-7p Thursday.

It shows a good 3-4 inches of snow from this storm(assuming a 10:1 ratio).

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows no snow and instead ice for Northern MoCo before turning into all rain and then leaving.  It shows the freezing rain falling at a very heavy rate, in a short amount of time. It's all rain for southern MoCo.

Ice Accumulation:

The NAM shows all the way from a glaze of ice to a quarter-inch of ice, and the most ice is in NE MoCo. Hopefully, this doesn't happen and we get snow instead; ice is much more worse.

This is looking like a "light" type of storm on my snowstorm rating system. The best bet for 1-3 inches is in Northern MoCo, and for Southern MoCo, a trace to 2 inches of snow is a good bet. It all depends on how long the cold air lasts, and some sort of mixing is likely. We will switch over to all rain, and that's for everyone. 

What we know:

- There will be wintry precipitation on Monday

- The onset is around 7-10 AM, but storms this year have tended to have come earlier than expected, so the storm starting before sunrise is a possibility

- If the storm started before sunrise, the impact would be higher

- Some sort of mixing is likely before the turnover to rain

What we don't know:

- How fast we switch over into rain

- How much mixing will occur

- How much snow will fall

I will make another post tomorrow.