Spring is Coming... but Winter is Still Here...

Yesterday, we had very mild and nice weather. It felt like spring. And with temps expected to be warmer than the rest of February, some people are going under the unfortunately wrong thought that winter is mostly wrapped up. I know I already made a post about how winter wasn't over, and I still stand by that. I will be giving more data from more experts as well. 

Winter really had fun toying with us in February, cause it was the first time since 2015 that we had below-average temperatures. We also had 9 storms. However, we didn't really get that much snow from them. In theory, they should have gotten our snow totals much above average. La Nina doesn't really work out for us though, but this winter was still a good season, primarily for our northern suburbs and more inland areas. And we still have March to go.

Now March... you've heard the saying "March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb". Yeah no, it will probably stay as a lion for a good part of the month. The European ensemble is showing some very interesting connections that need to be watched.

Credit to Justin Weather for this image

The AO is positive, except for March 5 alone, where it's neutral/slightly negative.  This is not good for snow, however, the time period of March 5-10 needs to be watched closely. Pattern fluctuations during this time period are possible, and even somewhat likely! Justin Berk says that "he does not see anything major before March 12 in the arctic oscillation", which is fair, considering that it's positive. However, it still needs to be watched very closely.

Credit to Justin Berk(Justin Weather) for this image

The NAO is slightly negative for the start of March up to March 6th, and that pattern supports snow. But from March 5-10, we need to watch the NAO. It goes strongly positive and then starts to go down to slightly negative/neutral. This is what I meant by pattern fluctuations. We need to watch early - mid-March, cause patterns are going to keep fluctuating rapidly.

Tweet from Judah Cohen:

Dr. Judah Cohen, an expert on the Arctic and how it can affect the weather here, has pointed out that the GFS is showing another arctic buildup during the 2nd week of March, where Greenland blocking returns and increases the risk for colder weather, including snowfall for Europe, and how it could possibly expand to us in the eastern US. Another person in the comments of this tweet(Michael Solomonides) stated that this pattern is also starting to show up on the long-range runs of the European model

Credit to Justin Berk

And just to add insult to injury, do you see the temperature fluctuations during early March. From down to up, and from up to down... There is a consistent cold after March 1st, and the trend seems to be going colder(European Model for Baltimore).

And you know how I was talking about La Nina? During La Nina winters, there's usually something that comes in March, even if the winter so far wasn't that great. During the winters of 2016-17 and 2017-18, IAD(airport closest to MoCo) had its snowiest March, due to Winter Storm Stella(2017) and Winter Storm Toby(2018). I don't think our snowiest month will be March, even with that being said, but the point is March cannot be underestimated. And for people who have lived here for a long time, I think you know that already. During the superstorm of March 1993, IAD measured 14.1 inches of snow! Heavy snow fell while temps were marginal(33-35)! 3 FEET of snow fell in Westminster, in Carroll County during that storm! March 2014 was the snowiest March since 1963 for IAD, where 19.3 inches of snow fell. All I want to say is that winter is not out of the game.