April Fools Snowstorm Update

5:50 PM Update:

As many people saw snow from a heavy snow band that pushed through our area, many bands are still coming through and still forming in PA. We have a chance for snow bands to come through our region throughout the rest of the day and night, and even a chance early morning tomorrow! As north winds gust and pull in cold air and as the sun sets and temps drop, some of these bands may fall when its below freezing, and may cause some accumulation! Not much is expected though, only up to an inch; up to 2 inches at the very most. Sun angle issues will be removed, and if the temps are below freezing accumulation could easily happen. Keep hoping! This was better than a lot of models were saying.

7:30 AM Update:

As the main course of precipitation moves out of our region, there is still chance for some flurries/snow showers with mostly light but sometimes heavy-moderate snow to come south from PA throughout the day and into the night. In the night, it may be below freezing when they come. North winds will create showers in the afternoon that may have snow mixed with them. Snow was confirmed on radar in northern Frederick and Carroll counties and may have coated the ground there. However, mixed snow reports go much more further east and south than that, and I can confirm one here too. Anyways, we still have a chance to see some snow, mixed with times throughout the day if you don't live in a northern place and/or aren't an early riser. There is a chance for some accumulation, mainly after sunset when temps will start to plummet towards freezing. It won't be much unless that precip is heavy.

Tomorrow is the beginning of April... and to start it off we have a chance for some snow to fall. Models have been jumping back and forth with this system, and 12z runs weren't looking that good, but 18z runs look a bit better. The cold front is coming through, and has reached into western Maryland at 5 pm. I don't know if this is earlier or later than expected, but I'll assume this is around expected. I'll keep updating this specific post if anything major changes. Let's jump right into the models!

 GFS:

The GFS shows rain turning into an isolated part of snow before the main system moves out, and shows lingering rain/snow showers staying for a while before completely moving out. After hour 18(7 AM), the 540 line is south of our county. This is good because it means that our county is generally suitable to get snow. The lingering snow/rain showers between hour 21-27 should generally be snow, possibly mixed with rain.

Now I want to talk about the isolated snow spot at hour 18. We have northwest/north winds up to 700 mb in this sounding, which will bring in cold air. The precipitation type maps plus precip type on sounding all say snow. However, we are under the 540 line at this time, which isn't favorable for getting snow. We also have temps well above freezing. This would likely not be all snow even for Damascus and would probably be mixed with rain. These are somewhat heavy precip types and will cause dynamic cooling, something the models don't handle well so we will see how this plays out.

The GFS shows around an inch for that area in that spot of snow at hour 18. I wouldn't think this much would fall, since rain mixing would hinder with accumulation, but this could happen if we saw less mixing!

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows all rain on the ptype map for all of MoCo, but the thing is its glitching a bit. At hour 18(7 AM), most of the county is under the 540 line and still rain. Even if not snow, it would still at least be snow. 

This sounding shows north/northwest winds up to 700 mb, and temps at 39F. Even on the precip type guess, it says snow. It would be difficult to have pure snow with this sounding, so there would likely be mixing with rain. Even so, the ptype map is wrong and it should show some snow above 540 line.

It shows no accumulating snow for our region except for western Maryland, but this map is glitched.

European:

The European doesn't show any wintry precip for any of our region, but there is a high chance that in the break between hour 24 and 30 that there is some sort of wintry precip, mainly for our northern areas. I cannot see soundings or 540 lines so it's harder to interpret this.

The Euro(10:1 ratio NOT Kuchera) shows no snow except for northwestern Frederick County.

This event is very difficult to forecast. A small difference in temps could mean snow or no snow. A cold front is pushing through and a second cold front will push through tomorrow as well. If we don't get snow from the main event, we may get snow from the lingering snow bands after the main course of precip, and it may be below freezing when we might get them. For a snow forecast... it's too difficult to make one.  We might not see any accumulation at all or we could see 1-3 inches. North and west of MoCo has the best chance, but this storm favors more inland than more north(although being more north always helps)! Models won't be useful past this point, and its better to use other tools. This may be the last snow threat of the year. Either way, April Fools!

April Fools Snow?

Yes, you read the title right, I am tracking a storm that could potentially produce wintry weather in the DMV, and yes it's on April Fools Day. I guess this year Mother Nature is playing pranks of her own.  I didn't make a post about this earlier because it looked like it was going to miss the DC area except for western Maryland. But now, as models have been shifting the system more east and south, the DMV has a chance to see flakes fall, and some accumulation in our more inland, northern areas. Any part of eastern Maryland, even northeast Maryland, don't have much of a chance with this system. This system will enter tomorrow, but the main chance of snow is Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes through. It will be rain throughout Wednesday for everyone. This isn't a weak system too. A lot of models are showing 0.75-1+ inches of all precipitation amounts(total QPF) for a lot of our region. Dynamic cooling will help a lot here.

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows heavy rain transitioning into sleet, then snow as the low starts to move off and up the coast. It still shows temps above freezing, but somewhat heavy precip rates, so if there's any accumulation, it should be solely on the grass. A lot of areas won't even see any accumulation.

The NAM shows all the way from a coating in SE MoCo up to 3 inches in Northern MoCo. It will melt very fast when the snow stops though, and the April sun angle + temps above freezing will cut down on the totals. However, one thing I do want to point out is that the NAM and other models have been showing lingering snow showers even after the main course of the precipitation is done, and that may hit parts of the DMV at times. Shouldn't account to much, if any, as temps will be likely above freezing.

This is a sounding at around 4 AM EDT. The red represents temperature at the surface, and the green represents dew point. The precip here would likely be sleet because of a warm nose from 750 mb(1.25 miles up in the atmosphere) all the way to 500 mb(2.75 miles in the atmosphere). The snowflake would fall and refreeze into a sleet pellet. There are north/northwest facing winds to bring in cold air at the surface all the way up to around 700mb. It could also be rain though, since the sounding doesn't seem to go too past 0 C(freezing line) in the "cold air" area at 800 mb. There is more room for cold air up in the atmosphere, and the warm nose isn't that big to guarantee rain.

European:

The European shows heavy rain possibly turning into wintry precip(mix/snow) as the low moves off and up the coast. This has 6 hour breaks between pictures, so there would likely be some short of wintry precip in between the time from hour 48 and hour 54. 

Assuming 10:1 ratio(NOT KUCHERA), we don't see any snow ACCUMULATION, but that doesn't mean we will see a snow shower. The snow accumulation is awfully close to us though. It might have shifted a bit southeast, which is good for us.

GFS:

The GFS shows heavy rain turning into heavy snow as the low goes up and off the coast before starting to lighten out as the system moves out of our area. These are heavy precip rates, and would be enough to combat the sun angle + above freezing temps... if they occured.

The GFS shows all the way from a coating to a half inch, with the most snow in NW MoCo. It has trended southeast and stronger for this storm, which is good!

However, there is room for being skeptical when the transition happens. At 4 AM Thursday, the GFS on the precipitation maps shows heavy snow. However, when you look at the sounding, it says the precip type is... rain? The sounding supports it. It shows a warm nose from 875 mb to 625 mb with temps above freezing. Compared to the NAM sounding, the temps are warmer and the warm nose looks strong enough to cause a cold rain instead of snow. There are north/northwest winds up to 750 mb to pull in cold air which is good.

A small change could mean either cold rain or heavy wet snow. Accumulation isn't expected to happen anywhere but grass, and may not occur in the first place too. This will have to be watched, and dynamic cooling will play a big role here. North/northwest winds will start to occur as the low moves off the coast and will bring in a lot of cold air. We want more heavy snow before sunrise to alleviate sun angle concerns, but the transition seems to be happening around 4-8 AM. Even just 1-2 hours earlier would make a big difference in snow accumulation. I will make an update tomorrow with new models plus radar and soundings. Right now, it looks like a coating up to an inch for MoCo, with some localized areas possibly reaching up to 2 inches. No accumulation is pretty possible too. I am confident in flakes falling though.

Sunday Severe Weather Nowcast

6:40 PM:

Most of the region is still under a severe thunderstorm watch until 9pm EDT. A couple of tornadoes, winds up to 70 mph, and marble-sized hail is possible. The rest of the area is in the wind advisory until 4 AM. Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the night in those pinkish areas. Staying indoors and not traveling is advised throughout the DMV.

5:07 PM:

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MOST OF MOCO, AND FOR A LOT OF BALTIMORE AND CAROLL COUNTY! WIND UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL THAT IS PENNY SIZED IS POSSIBLE! GET INDOORS, GET RESOURCES, AND STAY SAFE NOW! A WARNING MEANS DANGEROUS WEATHER IS IMMINENT, AND IS OCCURING SHORTLY OR NOW!

5:05 PM:

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR OUR WESTERN REGIONS! A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, HAIL UP TO SMALL MARBLE SIZE, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE!! GET INSIDE NOW AND STAY SAFE! THIS IS UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY! THE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED INTO NW MOCO AND WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST! GET INDOORS AND STAY SAFE NOW! 

4:55 PM:

If you are in Northern MoCo, and not in the severe thunderstorm warning, I would still advise you to stay indoors and get ready for one. Radar indicates Northern MoCo getting directly hit by the heavy precip of this squall. Even in Southern MoCo, I would advise you to be careful. Gusty winds, hail, and possibly even a tornado are possible with this line.

4:40 PM: 

TORNADO WARNING FOR EMITTSBURG AND TANEYTOWN! GET INSIDE AND SEEK SHELTER NOW! PENNY SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE!

4:35 PM:

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLARKSBURG MARYLAND! WIND UP TO 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE! GET INDOORS NOW! THE SQUALL LINE WILL HIT NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOCO! A WARNING ALSO MAY BE ISSUED FOR AREAS MORE SOUTH OF CLARKSBURG SO BE VARY!

4:10 PM:

This squall line may reach northwestern MoCo; however it probably wouldn't be severe, and it will be brief. Precip will likely be moderate, but will quickly dissipate if it even reaches it.

3:55 PM:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FREDERICK, BOONSBORO, AND HAGERSTOWN! WIND UP TO 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE. GET INDOORS NOW!

3:45 PM:

This line needs to be watched very closely. As of now, it looks like it will miss MoCo and may touch some of Frederick county, but as it gets closer, we will know if MoCo is getting hit. This squall line has up to 60 DBZ rates and may be severe.

3:00 PM:

The National Weather Service in our region has put a timeline on when to expect severe weather. Most of MoCo and our region will see severe weather around 4-6 PM, while the southeastern part of MoCo will see severe weather around 6-8 PM. The rest of our region will see severe weather around 6-8 PM, and for our far western areas, you might see it at 2-4 PM.

1:30 PM:

The SPC has put a mesoscale discussion for most of our area, including all of MoCo. It says that damaging wind gusts will happen and a tornado or two is possible this afternoon. The SPC expects 500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE to develop with "low-level moist advection of dewpoints in the 60's F." Even with cloud cover that is increasing, destabilization is expected to occur in the afternoon from VA all the way to the PA border. High resolution guidance suggests some isolated thunderstorms may form from the rain shower activity as the pre-frontal through moves eastward. Storms that develop have the potential for damaging wind gusts and maybe even a isolated, brief tornado, because of the strong low and mid-level flow across a lot of the Mid-Atlantic. A lot of doubt remains due to weak destabilization and low confidence. Another round of tstorms may develop as the cold front moves east across central VA later this afternoon, and although conditions on the surface are cooler and drier, models show hodographs that support damaging wind/gusts with linear storms "along and ahead of the front later this afternoon". And one thing that I really wanted to spot out was "Trends will be monitored for a possible weather watch this afternoon/evening". All quotes were from the SPC and this paragraph has been trying to paraphrase the SPC's words.

12:45 PM:

The SPC has updated their maps! Let's see what it shows.

The SPC has reduced the slight risk range to include almost none of Frederick county, and has also put a part of Northern Loudoun County in the "Marginal" area. All of MoCo and points south are in the slight risk, but our northwestern regions are in the marginal risk, and some of western Maryland is even in the "non-severe" thunderstorms risk! They have moved the marginal further north, into New York and even some of southern New England!

The SPC has most of our region in the 2% risk for any location to see a tornado 25 miles away from a certain point, while the southern parts of our region are in the 5% risk for any location to see a tornado 25 miles away from a certain point. Only our far northwestern regions are in the less than 2% to see a tornado.

Most of our region are in the less than 5% chance to see hail 25 miles away from a certain point, but the southern part of our region is still in the 5% chance to see hail 25 miles away from a certain point. Hail isn't the threat here.

This is why most of our region is in the slight risk; due to the damaging winds. We have a 15% chance to see 65+ mph winds 25 miles away from a certain point, and our northern regions are in the 5% chance to see 65+ mph winds 25 miles away from a certain point. The mountains are in the less than 5% risk to see damaging winds!

FROM the SPC: 

"...Mid-Atlantic into southern NY this afternoon/evening... As previously mentioned, the degree of destabilization is more in question with northward extent across VA/MD/DE toward eastern PA and NJ. Surface temperatures in the 65-70 F range will be needed to much in the way of SBCAPE and a damaging-wind threat with a forced band of convection along the cold front. Will maintain the character of the previous outlook, but the northward extent of the severe threat will depend on some cloud breaks this afternoon. The Marginal area has been expanding some into southern NY to reflect the potential for just enough low-level warming/moistening to support minimal SBCAPE and the low chance for strong/damaging gusts with a shallow convective band along the cold front."

They think that the cloud breaks in the afternoon will determine if the northern regions get severe weather, which is what I think too. They have extended the marginal risk into southern NY for the potential to support a small amount of instability and the chance for some strong/damaging wind gusts.

12:30 PM:

The second course of precip is slowly starting to fill in on the LWX radar, and will be moving into the are soon, in the next 1-2 hours. Storms will be starting to form, some severe, and 2-6 PM will be the prime time for severe storms to occur. Tornadoes are possible too.

12:15 PM:

The squall line is seeming to be missing Northern MoCo, or at least the heavy precip part of it. Even still, Southern MoCo definitely got hit.

12:00 PM:

That isolated squall line has reached the far SW part of our county! It will be moving northeast, and most everyone should see some moderate - heavy rain before it leaves quickly. There probably won't be any thunder/lightning and it will not be severe.

11:50 AM:

That line that I circled needs to be closely watched. Theres already many squall lines forming, one in western PA and one thats coming in our way. That is the front/boundary with storms forming on it, and some of them could be severe. The second course of precip is slowly moving northeast, but isnt close enough to be picked up by the LWX radar.

11:35 AM:

An isolated squall line is moving northeast, and has MoCo right in its path. This squall line contains pretty heavy precip, with 30-40 DBZ rates. It will come in fast and come out fast. Some thunder/lightning may be possible with this line. Probably not severe though.

10:30 AM:

The SPC has mentioned downgrading some of their risks for the entire region, and they have removed the signature/hatched risk for the entire area effected by severe weather. I would like to point out a mistake that I made in my previous post; I referred the wind risk by MPH, when it should have been knots. The hatched area means a 10% or more risk of wind speeds 65 knots or more(75mph+). Here are the latest SPC maps:

Slight risk for most of the region, with a marginal risk for the northern parts of our region.

A 5% risk of a tornado from any location 25 miles away from a certain point in the brown area, and for our northern area, its a 2% chance of a tornado from any location 25 miles away from a certain point in the green region.

There is a 5% chance in the green area for 1" or more in diameter hail from any location away from a certain point, and less than 5% elsewhere.

The main threat here is damaging winds, but the hatched area for more severe winds has been removed. You still need to be taking this seriously, as these are still chances for 65+ mph winds. Most of our area is in the 15% chance of 65 or more mph winds 25 miles away from a certain point in the yellow range, with our northern regions being in the 5% chance, and just south of us in the 30% chance range. The greatest threat is in the red.

Severe Weather Risk Sunday

There is a severe weather threat for the entire DMV tomorrow, specifically in the afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging winds, but some mostly weak, isolated tornadoes and hail can't be ruled out of the question. 

As you can see, most of the DMV is under a slight risk, and the really northern part of the DMV are in a marginal risk. Just south of the DMV is an enhanced risk, where the risk for dangerous winds are higher. Let's look at the specific categories:

In the slight risk area(brown area), there is a 5% chance for a tornado to be on the ground 25 miles away from any given point in that area. This isn't the chance for at least one tornado to form, but the chances for any location 25 miles away from a given point to see a tornado. This isn't the main threat though, and the northwestern part of the DMV is in the 2% chance for any location 25 miles away from any point to see a tornado.

Most of the DMV is in the 15% chance for damaging winds, and a lot of it is also in the fence like area? What does that mean? It means that we have the chance to see really damaging winds(65+mph), and that there is a 10% or greater chance to see over 65 mph wind 25 miles from any given point in this hatched location. There is a 15% chance for any location in the yellow part to see 55-65+ mph winds 25 miles from any given point.

Most of the DMV is in the 5% chance to see hail 25 miles away from any given point. In the really NW regions of the DMV, there is less than a 5% chance.

HRRR sounding at 2pm EDT.

Ok, this might be scary when you see the "tor" under possible hazard time and something under the supercell category. Instability is not bad(500-750 j/kg); the shear is not too bad; lift is there; and the moisture is more on the bad side. But the sounding itself isn't good. Even if a tornado occured(unlikely), it would be very weak and short-lived. The main threat will just be damaging winds, and I don't think tornadoes will be a considerable threat. You should still prepare though.

The severe storms will be caused by an upper-level shortwave trough intensifies as it moves through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and as a surface cyclone deepens in Ontario/Quebec, a cold front moves east with it, which will help create storms in the southeast, Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic(paraphrased from the SPC). In the DMV(further north into the Mid-Atlantic) low-level wind fields will be stronger but buoyancy will be less, compared to the more southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic(Carolinas, Southern VA). Over 500 joules/kg MLCAPE will still exist and help the environment further support severe surface gusts, and if greater heating occurs in certain patches, the MLCAPE may get close to 1000 j/kg, and if this occurs, the threat for stronger, damaging winds will increase. Tornadoes are possible, but this far north it is doubtful due to low-level thermodynamics and storm-mode. (paraphrasing SPC). You do NOT want the sun to come out, because that will increase the MLCAPE, which the more there is, the more dangerous the severe weather will be. The timing will be around 10am - 8pm(general DMV). The main severe threat will be in the afternoon for everyone, but there might be some isolated severe weather after 4-6pm in some spots. I will make a nowcast post and give you live updates. I can't provide much more info since I want to put out accurate information and I don't know too much about severe weather, but as we get more outbreaks, I will learn more about severe weather and will be able to inform you more! 

Severe Weather and Snow Update Friday

Unfortunately, the models have been trending to us getting dry slotted on Friday, giving us no or limited flakes falling on Friday. A bare ground is expected for many, with up to a trace of snow, but even that isn't likely. However, the chances for severe weather tonight has increased.

There is now a marginal risk for a lot of our region(including all of MoCo), and a chance for some non-severe thunderstorms elsewhere(in the DMV). Our western and southern areas are in the marginal zone, while our northeastern areas are in the non-severe thunderstorms area. 

The main concern here is hail. In the brown area, there is a 5% of seeing 1 inch or larger in diameter hail in any given location 25 miles away from a certain point. This isn't the chance of any given location seeing any size of hail in any given location in the brown area, and that is likely much higher than 5%. There might be some isolated supercells in our western and southern areas, but they aren't expected to form into tornadoes. Damaging winds and some isolated tornadoes cant be ruled out though, and you should be preparing for them. Some thunder and lightning are actually kind of likely this time, mainly in our southwestern areas. As severe weather starts to become more common in our area, I will be making more posts about them. Until then, stay safe!

Friday Snow Update

The models are starting to somewhat break up the bands of snow coming towards us and giving us snow.  And most of the snow should fall after sunrise, meaning that if the snow isn't heavy, the snow will melt on everything, including grass(the ground is also warm). That is something I didn't account in my post yesterday, and that was a mistake of me. It may get at or below 32 degrees in Northern MoCo, and especially north and west of us, giving us the chance for some slushy accumulation on the grass. It won't amount to much, and an inch would be a big boom in totals. As of now, my forecast for Northern MoCo will be a slushy coating on the grass to an inch(leaning towards LOWER totals) and a bare ground - a half inch of snow in Southern MoCo(again, leaning towards LOWER totals). If 12z models have the heavy precip bands setting up over us again, with more cold air, we could see higher numbers and more accumulation. It will have to be watched though. If we don't get anything from this, this would still be a good winter for me! 23.5 inches and only an inch away from average in La Nina is pretty good. That is around average cause it's almost impossible to hit spot on an exact average. I am happy with this winter. Even though after some chilly days there's going to be a long warmup, models are indicating some teleconnection flipping that will favor wintry weather. Winter isn't over until early May for me. One time in the past 21 years(I don't remember the exact year), we got an inch of snow in April. Severe weather for us is upcoming, and the season has already started. If any local severe weather happens in our area, I will make a post about it shortly.

Severe Weather and Snow Threat Thursday - Friday Update

We have a needed storm that is coming up tomorrow and will last into Friday afternoon before tapering off. And there is the potential for some snow as a secondary cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Other than the snow, why do I say this is well needed? Well, we haven't had much precipitation in the area since the end of February. Up to 2 inches of rain could fall in our region! This is well needed for plants to thrive. Although we aren't in a drought, it has still been a while, and it will be good for everyone. And, as you may have noticed by the title, there is the possibility for SEVERE WEATHER on Thursday! I am pretty sure you would have heard about the crazy and dangerous weather going on in the really southeastern part of the US.

A high risk and a 45% chance of a tornado occurring for any one location in that area are nuts! In those areas, significant strong tornadoes(EF2 and above) are likely. And on Thursday, there is a chance for some severe weather in our region; locally! I'll go above it below.

Our whole region is under some sort of color! For most of Maryland, some non-severe isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, in our western and especially southwestern areas, a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists. In our extreme far SW suburbs of the DMV, a slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists, including a small risk of an isolated tornado forming(2% - 5%). A marginal risk means that some severe storms could be spotty, but will be limited in duration or intensity. There is, and I cannot stress this, still a risk for tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail in areas in a marginal risk. It is just in those slight areas where more, stronger tornadoes, more widespread and damaging hail, and winds are likelier. The main reason why parts of our area are in the "marginal" zone is that there is mainly a risk for hail.  The biggest impacts are in the Carolinas, where widespread, damaging tornadoes, hail, and wind are expected. If your area is in any color on the SPC map or any specific place(s) I mentioned, get ready for dangerous severe weather. Make sure you have enough food and water to last for at least a week, have a shelter/safe spot in your house, and have a radio or some sort of device that can get up-to-date warnings and watches issued by the NWS.

Anyways, back to the snow aspect of this storm. We will start to switch over into wet snow in the early morning hours of Friday and will keep snowing until it starts to taper off. As you might have expected, areas north and west of MoCo will see more hours of snow. Over the past 2 days, the storm has been trending more south. As we switch over into the snow, it may be mixed with sleet/rain. However, as the cold front pushes SE, it should be primarily snowing if you live in MoCo, and generally most of the area. Winds may gust of to 20 mph, so conditions will get worse on Friday. The models have been doing some wacky stuff with the snow amounts though, and I will be looking at them regardless.

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows moderate-heavy rain before we start to switch over to snow, and then that snow band pushes southeast. However, around 8am Friday, I do want to point out something. It shows heavy snow in a lot of Southern Maryland. There is one thing wrong with it. If you look at the 540 blue line, it sets up right around Rockville(the thing about this line I will say now applies to all of the models). Generally, any area below that line(if they aren't bordering the blue line) will not be snow and instead sleet, or cold rain, since temps are above 32 at this time for most of the area(even for those who are above the blue line). This will cause an error in the snow totals, and since this model shows heavier precip in Southern MD, and shows it as snow, will cause a ridiculous uptick in snow totals. Take the snow maps I show with a grain of salt.

This snow map is utterly ridiculous. It shows up to 6 inches of snow in some areas of SoMD. That, will not happen. And even more stupid, is that almost Frederick county has no accumulating snow at all. Yeah, this won't be playing out at all. It shows a coating to a little over an inch of snow in MoCo, with the most snow somehow in SE MoCo. This will not happen.

GFS:

The GFS shows much heavier precip compared to the NAM. It shows heavy rain hitting us before that cold front moves down and switches us over into heavy snow, before eventually tapering off. Now, the GFS does a much better job than the NAM with its 540 blue line, as most areas that are below that blue line are shown as rain, and areas north are shown as snow. However, I still am a little bit skeptical of the snow map.

The GFS is much better than the NAM, but it still is a little bit ridiculous with the highest totals in our area being on eastern Anne Arundel and Northern Calvert County. In MoCo alone, a little less than an inch to a bit more than 2 inches is shown by the GFS. At least it shows more than an inch of snow in Washington and Frederick counties. Even though the GFS does show the heaviest precip once the cold front pushes down in Anne Arundel and Calvert Counties, and dynamic cooling will likely be there, I still think it's still wrong, as north and west areas will see the cold air that is required for wintry precip first, giving those more snow. They will also be able to maintain snow on the ground longer. However, it definitely is on to something with that area getting the most snow in our area, and it is something to watch. Either way, the highest snow totals from this storm north and west of Montgomery County. We want a stronger storm and not a weaker one, even if the jackpot totals(southern New England) aren't pushed south.

Euro:

The European shows heavy rain before the transition to snow as the cold front snow. However, it shows the heavy precip moving out of here before the cold front has come through our area enough to cause snow. It still shows us having some light-moderate snow, but it won't amount to much.

It shows up to a coating of snow, with the most snow in our region in our NW areas. Now, I think the European model is the most accurate out of all of the models in terms of where the highest totals will be; north and west of MoCo. I don't agree with how low they are though, I think the cold front will be pushing south fast enough for some of the heavier precip bands to be heavy snow. We will see though.

So since this is a rain to snow event, and it will be raining for the most part on Thursday, I will make an update on Thursday, this time with live radar and condition updates, including some models. I won't make a snow forecast until tomorrow, since there are so many things that could go wrong and we don't get anything or something goes better than planned and we get much more snow than expected. Right now, I am thinking of a trace to an inch in southern MoCo and a coating to 2 inches in Northern MoCo, with some isolated areas, possibly pushing 2 inches. 3" is not out of the question if the cold air pushes in faster or the heavy precip lingers for longer.