Severe Weather Today

7:52 PM:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTMINSTER, ELDERSBURG, AND REISTERSTOWN! GET INSIDE NOW!

7:40 PM:

The circled area are the next set of bands to watch. Some of them have pink colors, indicating possible hail and damaging winds. More squall lines are forming as we speak.

7:33 PM:

I didn't even notice this, but a lot of our region is in the circled area for the chance of some strong, and locally severe thunderstorms to occur by early evening! This means that the NWS and SPC is closely watching our area for some strong/severe storms.

7:30 PM:

As the band moves northeast of MoCo, another band is moving in northeast, MoCo right in its path. The. squall lines I circled need to be watched. I just recently heard thunder, and these bands may contain hail, with the dark red and light pink. More bands are coming in, this threat isn't done just yet.

6:42 PM:

Many squall lines, possibly thunderstorms, with some hail possible are moving northeast to MoCo and the DMV. As you can see, they have very heavy precip, up to 50-60 dbz with up to 70 dbz.  However, any pink/purple would more likely be hail, and we are seeing it in some of these bands. None of the areas in the path of these bands have been warned for a severe thunderstorm, so there might not be hail with it.

5:13PM:

I can report the sun has come out. Clouds starting to dissapate.

5:03 PM:

I've been observing the weather for the past hour, and for the past 30 minutes, the sun has not come out at all and the clouds have mostly taken over. There are still some blue patches in the sky, but they are generally small.

3:55 PM:

Clouds starting to really take over and kick in, and a lot of them are dark. Sun still managing to shine, but from time to time, clouds will cover the sun, and not much light will come through, and then the sun will come back out again. And the same thing happens over and over again. The sun has heated up the atmosphere and increased instability, which gives us a higher chance for more severe weather, and for it to be worse.

There is a severe weather threat for today. Most of our region is in the marginal risk except for our far western areas. The main threat here are hail and damaging winds.

Areas in the green has a 5% chance of seeing 1"+ hail or larger 25 miles away from any point.

Areas in the green have a 5% chance of seeing 65 mph(55 kt) or higher speeds of winds 25 miles away from a certain point. This threat will not mainly be a tornado threat.

This is a sounding from the 15z HRRR, at around 5 pm EDT. It shows possible hail ranging in size from 0.75-1.25 inches. It shows the possible hazard type as "Marginal Severe". The critical angle is 45, which isn't favorable for tornado development. It shows 690 MLCAPE(instability in the atmosphere) and 1021 CAPE at the surface. In most areas in our region, the sun has been out since this morning, and will continue to stay so for the next 1-2 hours. Clouds will start to increase. This isn't good in our situation, because the sun will heat up the atmosphere and ground, which will cause more instability. The dew point is 53 and the temperature is 75(at the surface). You would generally want dew points to be 60 or higher for more moisture, which will create the potential for more severe weather. 53 is still a high enough temp for severe weather though.

This is MLCAPE for the region around 5pm. The most is up to 1500 MLCAPE. A lot of the region is at or over 500, which is enough to cause severe weather.

The shear around 5 pm isnt the greatest. Its around 10-30 kt, with some areas getting up to 50 kt. You want at least 30 kt between the surface and 500 mb(around 6km into the atmosphere) to get support severe weather. In our northern areas, the shear is more to support severe weather.

The lift around the region is up to -6 C in our northern areas. Other areas have a lift of negative one to negative 3 lift(C). This can easily start the life of a thunderstorm if the lift is higher. We have decent moisture as well. 

FROM THE SPC: "A lead shortwave through is rotating northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic as of midday, with little forcing for ascent (or weak subsidence) in its wake. Given surface heating and lingering low-level moisture along and ahead of a cold front, a few storms may still develop this afternoon, with the more probable area from VA into south central PA. There will be marginally sufficient vertical shear and buoyancy for a low-end threat for damaging winds and/or large hail with the strongest storm this afternoon/evening." They are trying to say that a few storms may develop this afternoon, from VA into south-central PA. There will be enough shear and buoyancy for a threat(low-end) for gusty, damaging winds and or large hail, with the strongest storms around 3/4-7 PM. This is a hail and wind threat, not a tornado one. I will update this post with live updates as more information comes in.