My Winter Forecast for 2021-22

 If you've recently looked up winter forecasts for this year for DC... they tend to be not snowy at all leaning towards below average. The best forecasts for our area would be NBC 4's forecast and Justin Berk's forecast(Above Average Snow). Most forecasts went with below average snow due to the -PDO and la nina which typically result in non-snowy winters for our area. However, I don't think we will see below average snow for a number of reasons.

My prediction this winter is the east coast will see average - above average snowfall this winter. For temperatures, I assume that with the cold and stormy pattern that for the first half of winter, temperatures will be below average.

Last year, the WPO was positive, and for almost the whole year. Even with the -NAO and -AO, it wasn't cold enough for storms to stay all snow for DC and even me, much more northwest of DC.
 

I found out what we were missing last year: the -WPO and the -EPO.
 

This year, the WPO looks to be negative for a while, and this will keep the southeast ridge away. A negative EPO plus with a negative WPO will benefit cold and snowy weather.These teleconnections are good for colder weather, and more storm systems(Colder Weather + Stormy Pattern = Snowy). And the NAO and AO. They help a lot but, for DC/Philly in a La Nina, Pacific Oscillations are stronger drivers for teleconnections. We had a good amount of cold air last year, but we would never stay all snow/mostly all snow because of something going wrong. Viola is one of the prime examples of this. We were below freezing the entire day of the storm, BUT the warm nose was too much. Mixing was expected, yes, but the storm was practically all sleet/ice. Snow was able to break through the end of the storm, but by then, most of the precip was gone so it didn't accumulate. And let's not forget the negative easterly QBO; we didnt have that last year. Areas that were more north and west in the northeast benefited a lot from these snowstorms: as it was cold enough in the atmosphere to stay all snow for most of the time which resulted in huge snow totals. Sabillasville got more than 2 feet of snow from Orlena(Town in very northern Frederick County, MD). For areas heavily north and west of the I-95 corridor, 2021 was an amazing winter, as they didn't have as much mixing to worry about and it was colder to allow for more snow with the precipitation amount.

And about the -PDO... It actually seems to be flipping positive which is good for colder weather in ethe east. The la nina is also moderate, which is the best type of la nina for snow. December looks to be rather snowy and cold. I won't say anything yet, but the chances of a white Christmas are a little bit higher than other La Nina years. 

 I don't have enough time to make a map but here's what I'm thinking. 35-100+ inches in the mountains. Far northwest suburbs(Frederick, Winchester, Westminister and north + west) might see maybe around 30-50 inches(45+ inch totals in higher elevations).  Northwest suburbs(Germantown, Damascus, Clarksburg, Leesburg, etc.) might see 25-40 inches of snow. The I-95 corridor could see around 15-24 inches of snow. As for Southern Maryland and Delmarva... maybe 5-15 inches of snow.

 

December is predicted to be cold and snowy due to pattern looking very condusive for snow. January seems to be mild, maybe the first part of the month could be decent enough for snow. I don't expect too much from here but there could be some snow events (rather small). As for February and March... this is where it gets a little bit complicated. The la nina could start weakening and go towards a netural pattern, this isn't certain yet. If it does though, global weather patterns such as MJO and QBO will start to affect us more and we could see a snowy end to the winter. We could see quite a few snow days this year...