Well, this is unrelated to the storm I was talking about, but during the 0z run today, the GFS showed a BLIZZARD for the Thursday storm. And then... no blizzard. It still shows snow, but not a blizzard. Models will be very jumpy as we are 6 days out. Anyways, at this point in time, you should prepare for a storm impact on Monday-Tuesday. The storm will start on Monday afternoon and will end on Tuesday morning. This storm is a Cold Air Damming(CAD) situation, which means that there is a dome of cold air on the ground, but in the atmosphere, above the ground, there's warm air. The type of precipitation depends on how deep and strong the cold air is. There are still no ice accumulation/snowfall maps by any of the news stations yet, excluding the National Weather Service, which did make their first map for this storm around yesterday-today. I expect more maps to be made by tomorrow morning/afternoon, or maybe even by this evening. Let's look at some models.
European Model:
The European model shows this storm starting as moderate-heavy snow(for most of the county), then shows it turning into a mix, and then the storm is done. The European model has actually been trending colder for this storm, but I think we are going to get some wintry mix/freezing rain. But, I will say this, from personal experience: In CAD situations, the cold air lasts longer than what the models show. Overall, the European model shows a more snowy storm than the previous runs.
American(GFS) Model:
The American Model shows the storm starting as rain, then for most of the storm, freezing rain. Some regular rain starts to creep in the lower part of the county as the freezing rain falls in the upper to middle parts of the county, and then the last precipitation the storm drops for about all of the county is regular rain. As I said, the CAD will last for longer than what this model shows, so you might see ice at a time when a model says regular rain for you. And there can be freezing rain, even with temps above freezing, due to surface temperatures, and especially with ice and snow on top of it.
CMC:
The CMC shows a snow to ice/mix to rain system for all of the county. There's not much else to say here, other than that the CAD will hold longer than this model shows. This model shows more rain than all of the other precip types.
Now, let's look at the NWS maps!
This map from the NWS shows a wintry mix for all of our county, but this isnt specific. They also said that the wintry mix will likely go further south than what this map shows, which I agree with. This map doesn't include all of the places that will get a mix because at this point, it is in their best interest to show places that almost has a guaranteed chance to see a wintry mix.
This is the snowfall map for this storm that the NWS shows. It shows 1-2 inches for pretty much all of the county, with the extreme southern parts getting less than an inch(plus spotty areas in the county), and 2-3 inches for some of the northeastern parts of our county. I agree with this map more because the NWS is counting in for more of that wintry mix.
This is the ice accumulation map for this storm. The lower half of the county gets no ice, while the upper half gets 0.1-0.25 inches of ice, with some spotty 0.01-0.10 inches of ice mixed in. The NWS is counting for wintry mix and ice in their forecast, and I think, in terms of forecasting perspective, is the right thing to do. The more north you live, the higher the ice and snow totals will be.
I didn't show any snow or ice totals for the models because news stations' maps usually start to come out at this period, and they have a combination of all 3 models, plus more models than I have access to right now, plus with some personal instinct. But I want to talk a little bit about the Thursday storm because it looks more promising. No maps or anything though. The GFS put HUGE totals for the Thursday storm, amounts such as 15-20+ inches of snow, with it being a blizzard too. And during the 12z run, the amounts went down drastically. This jumpiness was expected this far out though. But, it's a step in the right direction. The European model now shows at least some snow for our area for this storm, which means that it is adjusting to the other models. This storm has a good shot, and the track + pattern + system for this storm is better than the storm on Monday. The NWS has put down a slight winter storm threat for this storm(Wed-Fri), but for the entire region, the DC and Baltimore NWS forecasts for. I don't think we will see a crazy, "Snowzilla" like storm for Thursday, but it could easily put down a good amount, to end the snow drought. They have all come to an agreement of some snow though, 2-4 inches. We are still very far out though, which means that we could see nothing or a significant snowstorm. We will see...
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