2 Storm Threats in One Week + Mon-Tue Storm Update

So you know how I said we will see at least a brief period of cold weather? Well, we have 2 storm chances, and the second one looks much more impressive than the first one. The first one is the storm on Monday-Tuesday and the second one falls around Thursday - Friday. The first storm is now less than 100 hours away, so let's talk about it! No news forecasts, at least that I am aware of, have released any maps, so instead, we will be looking at models!

FIRST STORM(MONDAY TO TUESDAY):

GFS(American Model):

As you can see, this storm turned from a snow threat, into an ice threat. The GFS is showing mostly ice for our county, with some rain at the end. We could see backend or frontend snow, but it won't be anything that's enough to be the main concern. This storm could still change, but at this point, the trend is that we the cold air won't push far enough south for us to get an all snow event, at least for this storm.

GEM(Canadian Model, aka CMC):

This model shows the precip starting out as snow and then transitioning to ice/wintry mix. I don't agree with this model that much, because I feel like its putting too much snow for our area. The biggest concern is defintely the ice, but this could happen too. We could start as snow but the precip should mostly be ice/ a mix.

European Model: 

The European model has almost all of the county starting out as a mix, then it turns into more ice. I feel like this model is what is most likely to happen (European has the most accurate track record), but I also feel like some rain could easily overtake it.

Now for the amounts. The only model that I have the exact ice accumulation amounts for is the GFS, but for the other models, I will just show total accumulated precipitation.

Canadian Model(GEM):

This model shows 0.5-0.75 inches of accumulating precipitation in total(not one certain amount). And if most of it falls as freezing rain, we could have a bit of a problem. We could have an ice storm, which is much worse than a snowstorm. We could lose power for an extended period of time, which will not be good. I will tell what this means for schools later in this post. However, this does include snow, but if we do some simple math, we can find out how much of it is ice. Assuming a 10:1 ratio, the GEM shows around 0.2 - 0.45 inches of ice. Yikes...

European Model(Euro): 

The European model doesn't show any snow falling in this storm, so almost all of it should just be ice(sleet included as well). That's 0.6-0.85 inches of ice. That's a significant ice storm, and is very dangerous. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a state of emergency for this level of ice. However, we probably will see some back/frontend snow or rain in this, but thats still a lot of ice.

GFS:

The GFS shows 0.45-0.55 inches of ice. That's already enough to cause major damage to infrastructure. However, this is total accumulated ice(precip for all of the other models), so chances are we won't be seeing this much at one time. If models keep this up, this is looking like a dangerous ice event.

The National Weather shows an enhanced threat for the upper half of the county, while the lower half is in a "slight" winter weather threat.

IMPACTS

So what impacts does this mean for school systems? Well, if you like no school, this actually looks good for no school, because ice storms, especially to the extent these models are showing, cut out the power and cause state-wide outages for an extended period of time. Crews won't be able to work on the power lines until the storm system is out of our region. And MCPS said that the only way schools would be able to close during virtual learning would be if there were countywide power outages. Well, there you have your countywide outages! Everything in Maryland would be shutdown, with the exception of essential services. I assume most people in Montogomery County don't have access to secondary power/generators, so it would probably shut down schools if the ice storm happened.

 

SECOND STORM(THURSDAY-FRIDAY):

This storm seems much more impressive because there will be an abundance of cold air in this system. This is the chance for an all snow event. But, at the same time, this is an all or nothing kind of storm. Either we get a lot of snow or just nothing. However, models are shaky about this storm. 

GFS:

The GFS does show a little bit of snow for our county, but the main snow that would bring us a good snowfall amount... is to the south. However, it's a week out, so many things will change. 

Euro:

The Euro just shows some snow showers/flurries for this storm, which is even worse than the GFS. The "bullseye" area for this storm won't get that much snow either.

CMC:

The CMC shows heavier snow for this storm than the other models. However, we still aren't in the bullseye of this storm. It seems to be south at the moment. However, stay hopeful. We are still a week out, and this can easily change. We have all the ingredients we need for this one.

I do not believe in showing snow totals for a storm that is over 5 days away, because I don't want to overhype everyone into believing we are getting a snowstorm, because when it disappears and nothing happens, people are confused. 

Summary:

The summary for this post is that there will be a storm that will be moving in on Monday-Tuesday, and it will mostly be an ice storm, and there will be a second storm on Thursday-Friday that looks much more promising for an all snow event.