Wednesday, January 20, 2021

New Storm Threat for the 25-26th!

 As you read the title, there's another storm threat, here we go again. However, this storm will take place during a below normal temperature period, as you might have heard of in my last post. The colder air will allow for bigger snowstorms. It's also inauguration day, during the time period when I wrote this. If you are reading this after the afternoon of today, happy inauguration day! Anyways, let's look at the models.

This image, from a tweet from Mike Thomas, shows the European model bringing heavy snow for all of Maryland during 3:30 AM. If this scenario actually happened, this would be a very good one, for snow lovers, as you will see down by the image below.

This shows our area getting a lot of snow, with over a foot of snow possible in areas! It's pretty crazy, the highest snow totals will be in eastern WV. The more west you are in this storm, the more snow you will receive. Now let's look at the American model!


The American model shows less snow for our area, unfortunately. This is a snapshot of what the GFS thinks it would look like at 10AM on Tuesday. The American model only shows us getting to about an inch, maybe take or give one. There's more, however. 

The National Weather Service shows a slight threat for not just our entire county, but for the entire region of the DMV. The reason it's a slight threat is that the threat is far out, and we don't have a good idea of how much it is going to impact the region. If the models keep this threat up, I would expect the slight threat to turn into an "Enhanced" one, a "Moderate" one, or maybe even a "High" threat. It's very possible.

This is just not a "one model shows something, the others don't" scenario. The models are in agreement, and that's surprising, especially this far out. However, because this storm is for the DMV, don't get your hopes up. Because the next day, it could be gone. Completely. My hopes are more up because of the favorable cold air and the fact that most models agree from this point out. Overnight models have held up as well. It's a week away though. So don't hold your breath.


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