MCPS HAS ANNOUNCED THAT ALL SCHOOLS WILL BE OPENING ON TIME, AND THAT A RE-EVALUATION WILL BE DONE AT 5 AM.
ALSO, THE MAPS ARE NOW OLD, AS I USED THE IMAGE ADRESS, AND NOT A SCREENSHOT OF THE IMAGE, SO THE MAPS DONT SHOW MUCH.
ANOTHER UPDATE: As 0z models come in, I will be adding more models. Make sure to go to the bottom of the article to read the latest information on what I think.
UPDATE: Warnings have turned into advisories for the entire county. Advisory lasts until 10 AM Monday.
This storm wasn't really a bust, but it was a bit disappointing, to say the least. We got dry-slotted(who would have guessed) around the afternoon hours, but we still got as much snow as what was forecasted, just in the lower end of totals. Totals ranged from 2-5 inches in the county(as of 6 PM), with more snow northeast and less snow southwest. As of 6 PM, the status for school is open on time, explicitly said by MCPS. They said they will do a re-evaluation at 5 AM, though. For all schools to be canceled(including virtually), offices(in-person) need to be completely closed. However, the criteria for that is much higher than the criteria that are needed for in-person school to close. Now, we will turn into a wintry mix, including ice, and then eventually switch back into snow on Monday. Northern MoCo is in a warning until 6 AM Tuesday, the southern portion; midnight on Monday. The question is: Will we see enough ice and snow to close offices? We will try to answer that using maps.
The NWS shows 1-3 inches of ADDITIONAL snowfall(not storm totals) for our county. The western/southern portion of our county is in the 1-2 inches portion, while the rest of the county(northern-eastern side) is in the 2-3 inches of snow accumulation. With 2-5 inches on the ground, this would bump up our totals to 3-8 inches. However, areas in the 1-2 inches area(for our county) will have additional totals closer to 2" than 1. The closer you are to another zone, the likelier your totals will be similar to theirs. The NWS shows a 60-80% chance of at least 2 or more additional inches, and a 30-60% chance of 4 or more inches of additional snow(see images below).
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| Chances for 2 or more inches. |
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| Chances for 4 or more inches. |
This is a boom scenario, which means totals are higher than expected. This is also additional snowfall onto the snow totals. It shows 6-8 inches for most of the county, with Damascus in the 8-12 inches of snow range. This will probably not happen, but if it did, it would be 5 snowflakes.
The low end totals show no additional snow accumulation for most of the county, with the northern and eastern portion in the less than 1 inch section. I don't think this will happen either.
Now this is what everyone is watching. The entire county is in the range of at least a tenth, all the way up to a quarter inch of ice. We are also flirting with the 0.25-0.5 inches of ice, which is enough to cause serious and major impacts, including countywide power outages. A quarter-inch of ice is very hazardous and can easily cause power outages, plus break tree branches. A tenth of ice will make surfaces very slippery, plus combined with the snow we have, power outages are more likely. If we see totals closer to the high end, I could very well see no school.
This model is by the GRAF, which is an excellent, yet relatively new model. It shows 3-6 inches for most of the county, with a small path of the county in the 1-3 inches range. Since people in that range are so close to the 3-6 range, they will likely see totals in the high end of the range, or even might get in the 3-6 inches range. Generally, northeast areas will see more snow than southwest areas of this county. This is the best model for this situation. Storm totals would become 3-9 inches if this played out.
The NAM shows the dry slot fill in with a mix, which falls at a moderate-heavy rate. During the time period of 12 PM - 2 PM, it shows the mix turning into snow for everybody in the county. Then, the snow CONSISTENTLY falls at a moderate-heavy rate for almost 20 hours! Then, the snow starts to taper off a bit, and the snow becomes scattered. It comes back a couple of times and then is gone.
The NAM shows 4-7 inches for the county, with the most in NE areas, like Damascus. Along with the 2-5 inches that fell today, that's 6-13 inches.
GFS:
The GFS shows the mix/freezing rain turning into moderate to eventually heavy snow, around 10 AM. The bulk of the heavy snow will be between 1 PM - 4 PM, but moderate snow will still linger into the night. The GFS shows 4-6 inches of additional snow, on top of the snow that fell today. This will bring our totals up to 6-11 inches(see image below). It shows the most accumulation in Damascus.
CMC(GEM):
The Canadian model shows the second part of the storm starting as snow, then shows a brief period of a mix, then turns back to all snow. After it turns back to all snow, it shows on and off snow falling. All is said and done by 1 PM Wednesday. It shows an additional 3.5-6 inches falling. Combined with what we have now, that's around 6-11 inches of snow(see image below). The most snow accumulation is in Northeast areas, like Damascus.
Snowflake Prediction:
2 Snowflakes: ❆❆
(Special Version: 50% closure[school buildings], 25% chance for offices to close)
Tuesday:
12:10 PM Update:
As you can see by the arrows, the snow band is generally moving in a southeast direction. In the next couple of hours, if you haven't seen a heavy band yet, you probably will see it soon. Snow is still persisting in Frederick, Fairfax, and even Washington counties. Half of that snow band is still in PA.
11:50 AM Update:
The snow axis has moved west, which means it's looking better for snow accumulation in the DC area. Moderate snow still continuing somewhat west of us. One long snow band from the north, hitting Loudoun and Fairfax counties plus MoCo(mainly northern and western areas) is generally moving south, but the radar shows unpredictable movements. Sudden drops in visibility and fast snow accumulation on roads are likely in these heavy bands. We will likely see another coating, all the way up to 2 inches in the next couple of hours. Winds are gusting 25-40 MPH, blowing snow.
8:30 AM Update:
Winter weather advisories have been extended for everyone until 1 PM because of lingering snow bands. Snow is accumulating rapidly on any untreated surfaces, due to the really heavy snowfall rates. I feel like by the end of the storm, about everyone should have totals similar to what was projected earlier. Visibility is really low outside. Avoid any unnecessary travel. Winds are also picking up and drifting snow. These are near-blizzard conditions.
Monday:
10:30 PM Update:
The main bulk of this event is over. We will see some snow accumulations, but it will be mostly light, with additional snow accumulations only up to one inch. It is super icy and snowy right now, but even then, crews will have some time to work on the roads. Winter storm advisories have been extended to 9 AM Tuesday, but snow showers will likely persist for much of Tuesday too. The latest NAM(3km) shows snow showers persisting until around early Wednesday morning(12-3 AM). It only shows 1-2 inches of additional accumulation though. My prediction for school tomorrow is 2 snowflakes, meaning that offices will likely be open(25% chance of closure) and school buildings have a 50% chance to close. I am not really leaning either way though.
5:30 PM Update:
New bands are forming all across the DMV. Bands far away shouldn't be tracked because they are getting stronger and then weaker and it's not reliable to do so anyway. We have many new bands forming as we go throughout the evening and night hours. Heavy snow bands are unleashing very low visibility and even snow accumulation on treated surfaces. My neighborhood roads with salt still had snow accumulation as we got the bands. Salt is not becoming as effective. If you are traveling, it is going to be very hard to see and snow will rapidly accumulate on the roads. Stay safe everyone.
5:00 PM Update:
These heavy snow bands will be coming in waves. Once one of them is here, it will snow at a heavy rate for some time, then start to snow at a less heavy rate. We still will have snow during those periods when we are waiting for the bands, so don't worry! This will keep happening as it goes through Tuesday. Snow coming down at a heavy rate right now. In fact, it's snowing so hard that parts of the LWX radar are being blocked and are showing dry conditions, when in fact it is snowing there!
4:00 PM Update:
The heavy band has made it into our county! Over the next hour, it should be moving in a southwest direction, as the arrows point. Expect a sudden burst of heavy snow and visibility to suddenly drop.
3:40 PM Update:
Multiple heavy bands from the north are moving into our area and pushing down south. The arrows represent the direction the bands are going in. We will see some of these bands. All of these bands have very heavy snow and are likely to fall at rates of 1-2+ inches of snow per hour.
3:20 PM Update:
The storm is throwing even MORE heavy bands at us from PA! The areas in the circle that says 1-2" are right now seeing the snow bands from PA(dark blue represents heavy snow). These snow bands have 1-2"+ per hour snow rates! Areas in the band will see a sudden and drastic decrease in visibility as heavy snow falls. The bands are making their way to the south! The storm is throwing everything it can at us.
3:00 PM Update:
This is what the radar is showing right now. The circled area is where the dark blue colors are, and that indicates that "thumping" is happening in that area, otherwise heavy bands. Areas in those bands can expect snowfall rates to fall at 1-2 inches per hour! They seem to be moving south in our direction, so I think that at least our northern section of our county will see that heavy band.
2:20 PM Update:
The storm system has become vertically stacked. 700 and 800 MB lows are over the surface low. What does this mean? This means that this storm is not going away anytime soon, and this also gives it the potential to stay through Tuesday. This will likely result in more heavy snowfall.
1:50 PM Update:
The atmosphere is cold enough for almost everyone in Maryland to see snow now! The heavy banding in SE PA is rotating into Maryland, going in an SW direction. But, this is more impressive. The European Model shows 5-8 inches of ADDITIONAL snow after the storm is all said and done. Models have been trending colder for our area, but even then you should be skeptical of these numbers. Didn't want to show precipitation on modeling cause it is happening right now. Still an encouraging sign for snow lovers, regardless!
10:45 AM Update:
The fact that they haven't called anything yet makes me less confident that they will do anything...
9:50 AM Update:
Winter weather advisories have been extended until midnight on Tuesday. Conditions are just getting worse and worse, as we turn into snow in the afternoon hours. Precipitation is going to start to pick up, along with gusty winds. This increases our chance for an early release to 67%.
9:30 AM Update:
I have reports from all over the county about how icy and snowy it is outside. There is already a sheet of ice underneath any surface, plows came to my neighborhood 3 times and dumped pounds of salt, and yet it's still so icy with snow. Freezing rain picking up a bit now, as temps are well below freezing. Damascus is super icy, and many roads in Northern MoCo haven't even seen a plow yet. I will increase it to 65%.
9:00 AM Update:
Light to moderate freezing rain falling in Gaithersburg, not really melting the snow because of cold temps, should switch over to snow in the afternoon hours. I will now increase my chances of an early release to 55%.
8:30 AM Update:
Models are showing heavy bands of snow during the afternoon hours. The coastal low is closer to the coast and is getting pulled back west. This will result in colder air(temps right now are already colder than what models show), stronger and gustier winds, snow bands and showers through Tuesday, additional accumulation, and if we start as a mix, we will turn into snow by 10 AM - 2 PM. I think that we will see totals like in the snow maps we saw on Saturday, even if it is on the lower end(5-10 + inches). Some snow will probably fall in the morning hours, but the main bulk of the accumulation should be in the afternoon. This will cause big impacts on the evening rush hour. Not to mention, the gusty winds that will be blowing snow that's falling and on the ground, lowering visibility and increasing the risk of an accident(if snow on the ground gets blown into your car, your window can break and injuries can easily occur). I am almost CERTAIN advisories will be extended to at least go through the afternoon hours, especially in NE MoCo. We could even see warnings(if we get a little bit more than expected)! I still won't change my percentage UNTIL we start to see our snow fall, though, but once it does, and if everything seems right, I will increase it.
7:20 AM Update:
Right now, we are in a lull of precipitation. As the day goes on, we will start to see snow. About 1-3 inches are expected, with 2-4 inches in the NE part of the county. Snow will have no problem sticking though, as temps are WELL below freezing. The county has announced that there will be a full day of school, but they are monitoring conditions and will make an update if it is needed. This means that there is a chance for an early dismissal, however, until we start to see our main precipitation come over and see how conditions evolve, I will have to leave it at a 50% chance.
Sunday:
11:45 Update:
With almost all of the models showing an additional 3-6+ inches of snow for our county, the bulk of it falling in the afternoon, I think we can get an early release. We could easily still get a closure, but I still think that I don't want to lean either way because they are going to try to fit in as much school as they can. It's STILL snowing in Gaithersburg, and even though we are more likely to turn into a mix in the next couple of hours, there's already 0.5-2 inches of snow on the ground from snow accumulation after 5 PM. It's going to get REALLY bad around the afternoon time, and even for offices, I think that not calling an early dismissal would turn dangerous fast in the evening commute. Traffic could be endless. Overall, I think we will see an early release but remember... this is my first time predicting virtual impacts. I might be wrong. Plan for a full day of work/school.
Why early release chances are included: Snow is more likely to fall in the afternoon hours, due to a higher chance of the mix fully turning into snow by then. Ice is going to make things very difficult to clean up, as in northern MoCo, the lights keep flickering, and we even haven't turned into freezing rain yet.
10:40 Update:
Our neighboring counties are starting to make the call, which is good for us, because if all of the other counties do something, MCPS will be pressured into doing something. Frederick County has completely closed schools, even virtual learning. Prince George's county has called an early dismissal for online instruction. If a county south of us does something to the school day, that is good, because the storm impacts them less, whereas compared to us, we have a higher impact. I think an impact is very plausible and possible at this time.
9:50 Update:
Right now the coastal low is forming around Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and it is going to go to Theta-E, which is located east of Maryland, right along the line between the ocean and the USA. This is good for snow lovers because this makes coastal storms stronger. It is further south than the models were showing, possibly giving us more snow. And by now, the warm front at 700MB right along I-95 was expected to go north of the PA line and give us a lull, but snow is still falling in Northern MoCo. I feel like we will see more snow tomorrow, and there will be a decent amount.
Original Statement:
I honestly think that even with the models showing less snow, with the snow we have right now, the Monday commute will be a mess, with wintry weather continuing into Tuesday. This is a long-duration type of storm, so snow and ice will keep piling up. It could really go either way. Precipitation will be mainly scattered right now(7-9 PM) as we turn into a wintry mix. Precipitation will switch back and forth. Right now, we are seeing a sort of lull in a lot of the county. Main precipitation will come back after 9 PM, snow or wintry mix. If heavy bands from the north wrap around and travel south enough to get to us, we could easily see lots of snow. I will keep updating this as the hours go on.
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