Is Winter Over Yet?

Next week, after Monday, there will be a warmup, with highs in the 50's and might even reach around 60! And if you are more on the technical side, we will also get out of the stormy pattern that's been hitting us constantly with winter storms. And now, some people are saying things like "Winter is fading out", or "Spring is coming in fast." 

While I would like mild temperatures and warm weather, the answer is no. Winter is not over, and won't be any time soon. Tomorrow and Sunday are going to frigid; likely the coldest air of the season. Lows will drop into the teens and highs will struggle to get above freezing. A massive refreeze is coming, and you should be prepared for icy spots tomorrow. Wind chills will make it feel 10-15 degrees colder than it is, and will be in the teens all the way into the single digits at times.

Although the warmup will happen, and from there, temps won't be too cold, we have a good pattern coming into March; one that we haven't had this winter: a negative NAO and a positive PNA. Early March is going to interesting, and we will likely have many threats. Those are all good patterns for snowstorms. I think we will see at least another 1-2 inches of snow areawide(maybe not DC though) before this winter is actually done. You can quote me on that if it doesn't happen.

The European ensemble shows a positive PNA for early March. This makes atmospheric and surface temperatures below average. Research shows that positive PNA produces more winter weather events, and the number of them is above average. 

The European ensemble shows a negative NAO for early March. A negative NAO means colder temperatures for Northern America, and they linger. It sets up a blocking pattern for the Atlantic. During the winter of 2009-2010, the NAO was strongly negative during that time, which caused dumps of snow and frigid weather.

We already have 2 threats to watch in the upcoming week: one on Monday and another one next Friday. Monday looks like snow to a cold rain event, but this event should generally be small. Friday is too far out to discuss details, for now, let's just say it's an all rain event because the models have been so bad this year. We have a little bit of agreement for some wintry precipitation Friday, so I will watch it closely. Expect it to be a bust if it materializes, as with almost every winter storm this year.

The NWS shows a slight threat of a winter storm for Monday-Tuesday.

In conclusion, winter is not over. Although we will see a warmup midweek, our pattern is favorable for early March, and a positive PNA has not happened in this winter; and a positive PNA is favorable for snow and colder temps. Tomorrow and Sunday will likely be the coldest temps of the year, with temps in the teens and wind chills in the single digits at times. We have threats on Monday and next Friday, Monday seems to be a snow-rain event, but Friday is too far out to discuss details. I hope you are ready for more winter, cause it's not going anywhere soon.