Well, snow lovers love a good snowstorm. Others hate it. But, the type of storm coming up on Saturday is something both snow lovers and snow haters hate: an ice storm. Sure, a little bit of freezing rain that causes a glaze on surfaces is pretty, and not much is done. But once you get over a quarter inch, that's where instead of looking pretty, it becomes devastating and catastrophic, with injuries and even sometimes fatalities occurring. We have 3 storm threats in the next week or so. The first one is on Saturday. The second one is on Monday to Tuesday(may linger onto Wednesday) and the third one is on Friday to Saturday. Thankfully(I say that because it's ice, not snow), this storm does seems to have less moisture than the next 2 ones. However, as it stands, the next two ones look like ice storms too. And just to show you how active this pattern is, let me show you something.
Well, there's something you don't see everyday! Winter storm threats for the northern regions for the entire time period the NWS' "Winter Storm Threat" covers! I have literally never seen this before. This is insane! There is an enhanced threat for the entire region I forecast for, on Saturday(high confidence, "low" impact). A lot can change though. Besides the crazy pattern that can easily be compared to the historical, record-breaking(in terms of snowfall) winter of 2009-2010, let's focus on our first threat: Saturday. Watches have been issued JUST south of us for Saturday's threat. I assume they will be extended northwest soon enough. You know it's a little bit wacky when D.C is the most northern zone in a watch; or any alert for that matter!
European Model:
The European model shows moderate-heavy freezing rain falling the whole time this storm, with rain far south of our county and snow far north of the county. It doesn't show any sleet either. It shows the system starting on Saturday evening/night and shows it getting out of here by Sunday.
Now, the European model has been very bullish with the ice, showing over a HALF inch for the entire county(image courtesy of Justin Weather) Once there is over a half-inch of ice, widespread power outages occur, and severe tree and power line damage is done. Not to mention travel is literally impossible. Although this is a lot, even half of this would cause major issues. The European does not seem to be backing off. Temps will be much below freezing on the ground the entire time, so any ice should accumulate.
GFS:
The GFS mainly shows scattered freezing rain showers instead of an ice storm. It shows them lasting from late Saturday night and shows them stopping after very early Monday morning(1-3 AM Monday).
The GFS shows much less ice than the European model, with only 0.05 to 0.15 inches of ice(Phew!). This will still cause disruptions though.
CMC:
The CMC shows the storm starting as an icy mix(sleet and freezing rain) before turning over to heavy freezing rain and then eventually going off to the ocean. More sleet would lessen the impacts of this storm, as sleet is less disruptive than freezing rain.
The CMC shows 0.3 inches - 0.5 inches of total accumulated precipitation. If most of this is ice, we could have a pretty disruptive problem on our hands.
Temps on the ground will be below freezing the entire time. Plus with the snowpack we have right now, ice will accumulate on any untreated surface, and will wash away pre-treatments if not put out regularly. This freezing rain shouldn't melt completely once the storm is done, it should be staying here for a while. I won't be showing the other storms until this storm is done. Why? This storm will set up the next storm from Tuesday to Wednesday. And the Tuesday to Wednesday storm WILL set up the next Friday - Saturday storm. And besides, we are very far out. I don't think it's a good time to talk about them, because they will be changing rapidly. They could be major winter storms for us(the storms next week). They should be either snow or ice due to an arctic high and cold air in place. The latest storm(this Saturday) does seem to be trending towards being weaker, which is good. After the next 2 weeks, winter does seem to be weakening its grip a bit(we could still see some good snow after the next 2 weeks). Travel will be very dicey and difficult; impossible at times on Saturday evening - Sunday. Please avoid any unneeded travel unless absolutely necessary, and make sure to stay slow and careful on the roads; don't make any sudden movements or breaking. What appears to be wet surfaces is most likely ice. I will release another call tomorrow and my final call on Saturday.
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