Mid-March Weather Pattern Update

During La Nina winters, something usually comes up in March that is wintry-weather related, even if the winter that year has so far been not so good for winter weather(in terms of amount). Take the winter of 2016-17 and 2017-18 for example! Our snowiest days those years were in March. Well, we have something coming up in mid-March! This week will be the warmest week we will have SO FAR this year, but then it starts to get colder and temps will drop after Friday afternoon.

The CPC has below-average temps for the entire DMV during the time period of 3/14 - 3/20 and has a strong chance for below-average temps(>50%), and for the below-average temps to be more stronger(colder). The southeast ridge(warm air) seems to be losing. This outlook reflects the negative EPO, which is one of the most driving teleconnections in the weather. The negative EPO, as you might have guessed, brings a colder solution to the eastern US.

The CPC also predicts above-average precipitation for the entire region(except for western Maryland but that area is still in the "above-average precipitation" area), and it's not a small chance either(moderate to strong chance of more precip than normal, and for that quantity of precip to be more). This increases our chances of snow with the cold air in place and an active storm track, the chances for storms to produce wintry precipitation increase.

EPS(European Ensemble):

Now, the reason I zoomed it out so much to include all of North America is to focus mainly on Alaska and to see how it affects us. You see the orange in Alaska moving through there? That's a sign of a ridge forming there. What does that mean for us in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast? It means that around next weekend, a negative EPO will form, pushing down cold air from the Arctic to us. This will cause a cold week from March 15-20, but models are trying to break it down by the end of that time period. Even then, I wouldn't be surprised if the models keep trying to delay the possible date of the -EPO breakdown further, since they have been doing that this year.

Also, today morning, Judah Cohen tweeted that the message from the American and Canadian ensembles is to not put the snow removal tools away yet and that starting next week, there is an increasing chance for snow. The more north you are, the higher chance you will see snow. He also shared some images that I will show.

This is the GEFS(American ensemble) for 3/13-3/17. It shows blue(the darker the blue, the higher the chances for snow and cold temps are, the darker the red, the lower the chances for snow and cold temps are) awfully close to MoCo, and for the western and NW suburbs of the DMV, the blue(more snow and colder temps) is present there!

This is the GEFS, and it shows blue for a lot of central and northern Maryland, with the highest chances of snow(darker blue) in the NE suburbs of the DMV. This is for the time period of 3/18-3/22.

This is the GEPS(Canadian ensemble) for the time period of 3/13-3/17 (same scale as the GEFS, darker blue = more snow and cold temps, darker red = higher temps and less snow). It shows blue for almost all of our county, and for the DMV, in our northern areas(not favoring west or east). It's mostly light blue, but it is still a good sign for snow lovers.

This is the GEPS for the time period of 3/18-3/23. It has blue for a lot of Virginia and Maryland, and the areas in the DMV that are the most into the blue would be our western and northwestern suburbs. This also includes the mountains!

As you can see, the ensembles are starting to have the confidence for more snow and colder temps for all of the region, and especially for our northern and western suburbs. This could be winter's last shot, but winter could extend all the way into April, and maybe even May to a certain extent. Winter isn't over yet as I think I can push above-average snowfall this year; all I need is 1.1 or more inches. We already have some good systems to track next week. For snow lovers, there's one last hope. This week is going to be very warm though. Highs will reach well into the 60's, and models are showing temps even getting into the 70's in some areas! Spring isn't here just yet though.