Wednesday Severe Weather

2:00 PM:

The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion, stating the chance for isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon. A severe watch is unlikely, at a 20% chance.
 

There is another severe weather risk for our eastern regions. Most of MoCo is in the marginal risk for severe weather, and the main threat are damaging winds, and potentially hail. The best chance is between 11 AM - 5 PM. Our northern and western areas are in a general risk.

Areas in the green have a 5% chance of seeing 65 or higher MPH winds 25 miles away from any point.

The HRRR shows enough CAPE for an isolated severe outbreak at around 1-2 PM.  There is an ok amount of shear, nothing too crazy, and the critical angle is one of the worst for severe weather ive seen in a while. Lapse rates are nothing amazing but still decent, and there is a decent amount of lift. This is overall not that great for severe weather, and the threat would be very isolated.

Convergence along the front combined with surface heating may just be enough for a severe storm to form. Compared to yesterday, the severe threat will not be widespread and the threat is generally small.