The midnight models yesterday trended towards more parts of our region getting flurries/snow showers. The best chance of snow is late tonight and very early on Sunday morning. The more inland and north you are, the better chance you have of seeing snow. The mountains will be seeing a couple of inches of snow from this system. As for us, the snow chances go down as far south as northern DC. When the snow falls, it will be above freezing in most of the region. Sunday's highs will be in the mid-upper 40s which is generally too warm for snow; hence the main time for snow being very early Sunday AM. Mixing is likely in non-mountainous areas; especially when temps rise; and especially for areas that remain above freezing during the whole event.
HRRR:
The HRRR shows light snow for many parts of the region(any area that is above the blue 540 line should be snow, and not rain, the rain is a model error if it shows rain for a region above the 540 line). I don't know if it will go this south, but if it does, it will definitely mix with rain. Most areas(including all of MoCo) are above freezing; and the closest I saw to freezing for Northern MoCo would be 32-33 degrees in this model run. However, it still does show parts of our region getting flurries/snow showers.
This is the NWS map for accumulating snow(not flurries that fall and don't accumulate; just stickage). With the afternoon runs coming in a little warmer, I agree with this map. Only extreme northern and western areas will see accumulating snow; and unless you are in the Applachian mountains it will be less than one inch.
Overall this won't be anything impactful unless you are located in a mountain range. North and west areas have the best chance to see flurries/snow showers; and the further south you the chance decreases. The best chance is late tonight and Sunday early morning.
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