Monday, December 6, 2021

First Snow Threat of the Season(mini-post)

Good evening everyone! I don't have enough time today to show all of the models and explalin all of my thoughts, so this will kind of be just like a mini-post. I will be getting straightforward to the point starting now. 

The 12z and 18z models are looking pretty decent for us snow-wise. The european model will just not cave to the NAM/GFS/CMC, all which support a snowier solution. The GFS has remained incredibly consistent this whole time, with support from NAM and CMC. NAM high-res shows us dryslotting and not getting that much snow sadly.
Snow Accumulation Prediction
 

As of now I will say a coating to 2 inches of snow for this system on Wednesday. More northern and western areas will see more, you already know the deal with that. Most of the accumulation will be in grassy areas, however it is possible that some roads and sidewalks may be slick/slushy, mainly in our north and western areas(Northern Montgomery County, Loudoun County, Frederick County, etc.). Unless you live quite far south and east, the main precipitation type will be snow throughout the whole event.

And for school predictions... This will be the first time doing this in almost 2 years so I have a decent chance of being inaccurate(plus new superintendent, we will find out how lenient she is with snow day). The main threat isn't really accumulation roads, it is the low visibillity with moderate-heavy snow plus somewhat threatening conditions while the snow is falling. The GFS/NAM shows areas east of I-81 getting hit by a heavy FGEN band(heavy snow band), which could create localized totals of up to 2 inches of snow. It could be heavy enough to stick to some sidewalks and roads.
 

So I will go with: 

2 snowflakes, leaning towards a full day(Somewhere around 45-49% delay)


This could go the other way if the snow comes later in the day and we could see an early-dismissal. This is my first call prediction, and likely will change. Most forecasts have us in the snow region of a trace to 1 inch of snow, and I agree with them. However, the NAM/GFS have been showing this band hitting us for quite a while now, and I can't just rule it out. If this happens, we could very well see some areas getting over 1 inch, and that's why I will be including up to 2 inches in my forecast. There could be a winter weather advisory, but thats only if the NWS gains more confidence in our county getting >1" of snow. If it does get issued, I would say only the northern region will get it from this point out.


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