Snow Threat Jan 6th Night - Jan 7th Morning

Good evening everyone! The NWS has put a winter weather advisory for the entire region, with 2-4" expected, and up to 5-6" in isolated areas. The usual trend of north and west getting more snow is back. Models have been all over the place with this event, and especially with the low placement. The snow will arrive tomorrow night, and there will be enough to shovel and plow. There won't be as much as 1/3 gave to SoMD, but there will still be a moderate amount of snow. Heaviest snow will be around midnight for Northern MoCo, with rates up to around an inch per hour. Where the frontogensis bands setup is where the heaviest snow is going to be. According to Sterling's AFD a short term winter storm warning may be required if a band persists over a specific localized area. Temps before the event will be much colder than 1/3, and it will be below freezing the entire time the snow is falling, so snow will have no problem sticking on untreated surfaces. This snow will be easier to shovel as it is a more dry, fluffy type of snow.

GFS:

 

This is the model that shows a more southern solution. 18z run had a more amped storm with less confluence, allowing the storm to go more a bit more NW. Still shows 1-3/2-4" for most of the region with 4-6" in SoMD.

 

NAM(High-Res, 3km):

 

The NAM is a more northern solution, and shows more snow for our area in general, 3-6" for most areas north of DC and 2-4" south. The influence of dry air for the northern part of our region may cut down on totals. That will be the more difficult part, finding out where the dry air sets up. 

NWS Forecast:

 

(sorry for low quality image, blogger wouldn't let me adjust the size of the high-quality image)

My Snow Forecast:

 

 

Snowflake Prediction: 3 Snowflakes

With temperatures being cold enough the whole day to support snow(<32 for most of the county), and there being 2-4" during the start of the rush hour, would pretty much confirm a delay. Additionally, if the heavier bands setup over our county, giving some areas warning level snow, that would take much longer to cleanup and cause more issues. The new superintendent seems to be more lenient with giving out snow days, at least so far, which is good. There is a pretty decent chance for schools to be closed tomorrow, and depending on how models go tomorrow, that chance may increase or decrease.