Wednesday-Thursday Snowstorm Update

The winter storm watch has been extended for all of MoCo, and I expect warnings will be issued soon. Everything, for the most part has held up, in terms of snow totals that is. There were reports of wet snow in a lot of areas in this county, but it was nothing significant. Let's just jump straight in!

Models:

This is the American model. It has changed... somewhat. It shows less snowfall but still shows our area getting about 3.5-8 inches of snow, same trend(more north and west more snow).

This model is the European model, and it has been standing pretty still. This is also the most historically correct model. It shows MoCo getting 6-9+ inches of snow.

At this point, the models aren't that useful anymore(they still are), because the weather forecasts start to lock in. The models have pretty much already locked onto a winter storm, and a significant one at that too.

Fox 5:

Fox 5 shows 3-6 inches for 3/4 of the county, and 6-12 inches for the upper quarter of the county. That I-95 corridor really determines whether you will see lots of snow or not that much. North and west of I-95 will see more snow, while south and east of I-95 will see less. The main amount of snowfall will fall during Wednesday night and early AM hours of Thursday. Mike Thomas(Fox 5 meteorologist) didn't want to change their forecast from earlier today since it held up pretty good.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 shows 4-8 inches for most of the county, and 1-4 inches for the southern part of the county. Also, it's very difficult to see, but a very small portion of extreme northwestern MoCo will see 8-12+ inches of snow. MoCo is really the snow gradient in this storm, meaning that what you will see in Damascus will be much different than what you see from Silver Spring. A mile difference and you could see a massive change in conditions. I agree with this one a lot.

ABC 7:

Similar to NBC 4's map, most of MoCo will see 4-8 inches of snow, while southern MoCo(1/4 of county) will see 1-4 inches of snow. This one is very similar to NBC 4's map so I won't spend any more time on this.

The National Weather Service:

This map is a mess, and just really shows how much MoCo is the battle zone between rain and snow. Southern MoCo will see 4-6 inches of snow, mid-county and lower upcounty(Gaithersburg, lower Germantown, Olney, etc.) will see 6-8 inches of snow, upcounty will see 8-12" of snow, and Damascus(northern side of upcounty) will see 12-18 inches of snow. Some people in upper Maryland, between PA's border, could see... up to 2 feet? That's quite a lot. If the battle area moved down just 10-25 miles, a lot of us would be seeing more than a foot, maybe even 2 feet! Basically, anyone north or west of I-95 has a really good chance at seeing 6+ inches of snow.

This has not occurred since 2016, 5 years ago, during the monster blizzard! This will probably be the most snow we have seen since 2019, or maybe 2016! Places above I-95 are in the high threat area, which means this(in their own words): "High threat of high impact winter storm. Potential impacts include significant travel delays, closures, and threats to life and property.  Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family."

Places below I-95 are in the enhanced threat, which is still quite significant. This threat has become really significant, and borderline severe! Now do I expect totals to be like the 2016 blizzard? No, I doubt it. Quite a lot actually. But we could easily receive over a foot.

According to the NWS, the chances of us receiving over 4 inches is pretty high, about 50-90%+!

Here are the winter storm watches:

Upcounty:

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northern and
  western Maryland, central, northern, northwest and western
  Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. Snow
  will most likely overspread the area later Wednesday morning
  into Wednesday afternoon. The heaviest snow is most likely late
  Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Potential impacts
  include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to
  minimize impact on you and your family.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Down-County:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater
  than 5 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Maryland as well as portions
  northern and central Virginia

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. Snow
  will most likely overspread the area later Wednesday morning
  into Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation may mix with rain and
  sleet at times later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

WUSA 9:

This map has changed the most! They were predicting 6-10 inches of snow for MoCo before the change, and now they only predict 1-3 inches for our county! The reason these totals dropped is that they think that the warmer air will overcome the colder air and bring more rain than snow. I think that this is overestimating the warmer air, mainly for upper MoCo. 1-3 inches is only advisory level anyways, and won't cause that much damage. I don't think this map is that accurate, I would bring upper MoCo to at least 3-5 inches, but that's just me. I am not a meteorologist. 

So at this point, it's almost confirmed that there will be snow on Wednesday-Thursday, and I think it might be safe to say that there will be at least 3+ inches of snow, 6+ inches for our northern areas. But what impact will it have?

The only thing that's almost confirmed is that all MCPS offices that involve physical activity will be closed and shutdown, including food distribution. However, in our northern areas, if it snows hard and fast enough, there could be some spontaneous power outages. If there are gusty winds, downed trees and power outages should be expected. But... I think MCPS will stay open unless there is a Google or Zoom outage(like today, but it wasn't long enough to cause damage for schools). It could happen if there are bad conditions. There could also be some freezing rain during the mix.

That's pretty much about it for today, I will see you tomorrow!

Reporting wet snow in Gaithersburg!

 It's starting to snow here in Gaithersburg. It started around 12:30 PM today, as the mixed rain and snow transitioned into a wintry mix/mostly snow. The snow that is falling is very wet, and the flakes are big. The wet snow is falling at a moderate rate as well and is somewhat accumulating. From other people in this county, I have heard that there are also wet snow in their areas and see it accumulating on trees and decks. This was a little bit unexpected, but not too much.

It is kind of a wintry mix though, and it's starting to become more sleet and freezing rain rather than snow.

THERE COULD BE A HUGE SNOWSTORM FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY!

Third Update: 

 There are now watches in areas. This threat is becoming more and more serious.  Northern MoCo and areas west and north of us are also in a watch for Wednesday. They expect over 7 inches of snow possible. There is no watch for southern MoCo and areas south of it(DC included) because there is expected to be a lot of mixing/rain that will bring the overall totals down, which I can understand. However, I think southern MoCo should still get the watch, just maybe for less snow. I am not the NWS however, and they are waiting for models to come in this afternoon, since once we get our afternoon models, we have a pretty good lock on what will be happening. Then, if everything holds up, warnings will be issued soon.

Second Update (before I go to bed): 

The chances of a snowstorm are starting to lock in; however, tomorrow will determine what we might be seeing on Wednesday. Tomorrow, most of the models will lock onto some sort of solution. Now, we just gotta hope that the models stay the way they are.

The chances of snow are increasing on Wednesday....

This also sums up the threat pretty well, however it doesn't give us a specified forecast for Maryland; let alone MoCo itself.

UPDATE: We could see some snow TOMORROW at 10AM-3PM, if you live in the northern part of MoCo. It won't be anything significant though. You might see a coating in the northern areas, but that's about it.

First, I am SO sorry that I haven't been doing any further posts about this. I had a lot of schoolwork, and I just found out about this. But it's ok, I am still gonna post this post. There is a HUGE winter threat from Wednesday to Thursday, and I am talking 6+ inches, winter storm WARNING level. This could be the biggest snow threat since Jan 2019, when I got 14 inches of snow from that storm.

For time's sake, I will only be using 3 weather maps, the NWS, Fox 5, and WUSA 9.

National Weather Service:

This picture shows the threat for a winter storm on Wednesday, and everywhere north and west of I-95 is in the moderate threat section, while south and east of I-95 is the slight threat section. Half of our county is split by I-95, so the side northern to I-95 would have the greatest threat for more than 6+ inches of snow, while the side south of I-95 would have a lower threat for a significant winter storm. I think that for a winter storm warning to be in place, there needs to be 5+ inches of snow potential.

This shows most of our county in the 30-50% chance range for a winter storm watch criteria and shows our area getting dark blue(presumably heavy) snow, but the heavy rain line(green/dark green represents rain) is also very close to our county.

So the question here is: Will our county receive snow or just plain old rain? For the upper side, the answer is more likely snow.  For the bottom side of our county, there's a 50% chance of rain, and a 50% chance of snow. There could also be a mix there, which I think might happen.

WUSA 9:

As you can see from this map, 80-90% of the county are in the 6-10 inches of snow range, while the very bottom areas of our county are in the 3-6 inches of snow range, however, since the bottom-most county areas are close to the 6-10" of snow area, then according to this map, our county will receive 4.6-10" of snow! This map is one of the more... optimistic ones when it comes to this winter threat.

Fox 5:

According to this map, the upper half of this county is in the 6-12 inches of snow range, while the bottom half is in the 3-6 inches of snow range. This is one of their first looks though, and it will probably change! I agree with this map the most because it's considering the rain/snow line battle for the southern part of our county. 

All of these maps show at least 3 inches of snow for our county, which is good! I am still vary of this threat, because this threat could instantly die and be nothing more than some good old rain. Our county is in the absolute middle. If the snow/rain line went up, we would most likely see rain, however, if the snow/rain line went down, we would more likely see heavier, more consistent snow.

Models:

The American and Euro model(the Euro model is the most well respected and historically accurate model) are still hanging on to a significant winter storm for our area. 

The GFS(American) model shows 4 inches for areas closer to DC while they show Upper MoCo getting over 9-10+ inches. 

The Euro model shows Upper MoCo getting OVER A FOOT(that's right) while southern MoCo and areas close to DC getting 8 inches. 8 inches is still a significant winter threat. The Euro model is also the most accurate.

The Canadian model shows 4-6" of snow for our region. 

The UKMET, however, shows 1-6 inches of snow for our region, the northern part getting close to 6 inches, while southern MoCo and DC only gets close to 1 inch of snow.

Keep in mind that these models are changing constantly! So what you see today will probably seem different from tomorrow. That's why you should never take threats of snow seriously if they are a week away. When the designated threat is 3-4 days from happening, and it's still there, then you can start to take the threat more seriously. And I am pretty sure that a lot of MoCo will see a brief period of a wintry mix(sleet, freezing rain, graupel, some snow mixed in) during the Wednesday storm, which will only make conditions worse actually.

The Possibility of... School Cancellations?

With news of a possible winter storm going around, there comes another question. Will this have an impact on schools? Normally the answer would be yes, but in 2020, in this situation... it's a little bit different. Or, a LOT different. With this virtual environment happening, the possibility for school closures goes down drastically. The only way we could not have school is if there was a power outage. This wouldn't happen with small storms but with over 12+ inches it's definitely a possibility. It's a possibility for even this storm! 

Let's take our approach differently this time. Instead of "Will schools close?", let's say "How will schools close?" Well, for schools to close, there have to be Zoom/power outages or really really bad conditions outside that it would be nearly impossible for Zoom to work properly. However, food distribution would definitely be impacted, quite a lot, and may even be shut down. And, cleanup will be much more difficult when COVID-19 is raging on outside. However, I think it's too early to say if schools would close. And, as this is(might be) the first storm of this season, our criteria for a virtual snow day will be set. So, we have almost no experience to go off from. 

I will keep you updated about the chance of an impact on school, and this winter storm system.

A WINTER WEATHER THREAT From Monday to Tuesday?

NOTE: When I started writing this, the Euro model still showed some snow. Now, when this is published, the snow was gone. Still gonna keep an eye on it though. I didn't add any photos because of it too.

That's right folks, you read the title, there is our first actual winter weather threat for this snow season! This seems to be a SNOW threat. However, don't get your hopes up. This threat is about a week away from even happening, and if you have been reading my posts for a while, or have just been following winter weather threats, you know that a lot of threats quickly change, and a weather threat involving 3+ inches of snow will turn into nothing.

So let us focus on our weather threat, eh? From Monday night to Wednesday, the Euro model shows accumulative snow falling, and the amount is 3-6+ inches. I don't exactly... buy this because a winter weather threat with 3-6+ inches possible, in December, isn't exactly... how do I put this... likely. It could easily happen, but it just doesn't feel right. However, December is supposed to be the coldest month, comparing to its average, so it could definitely happen. The Euro is the most accurate model, historically. However, the GFS does not show any snow, at least accumulative, for most of the DMV. I personally think that the GFS run will be more likely to happen, but you never know. The system is kind of in place though. So I think we CAN see some snow, but having more than 3 inches of snow just seems very... fishy.

Basically, all you need to know is that there is a possible winter threat for Monday-Wednesday, and if that threat happens, disruptions will occur. It's still not very likely though...

It's snowing right now!

 On 11:29 AM today, snow showers were falling in Gaithersburg, out on my deck. Nothing accumulative, but just nice to see. It was sticking for like 1-2 seconds then melted away. However, for this reason, I don't know if this was snow, sleet, or graupel. Please tell me if you saw any snow today! This what somewhat expected though, many DC weather stations said there would be a chance of some snow today.

A Chance for Flurries and Snow Showers Monday Morning?

 There is a chance for some flurries for Monday Morning. However, DC and most of Maryland will receive flurries. The people who will receive snow showers will mostly be southwest of Maryland. The snow won't be accumulative, but some people, may be able to see a dusting, especially south of Maryland. Our northern areas might be able to see a dusting, but don't count on it.

As you can see from the map above(courtesy of WUSA 9), there will be snow for most of the DMV during the (early) morning hours. In very southern areas, there might be a mix of snow and rain. The yellow line separates which areas will get flurries and snow showers(heavier snow, not actually heavy though). Areas who are on top of the yellow line will probably see flurries and not snow showers, while areas BELOW the yellow line are more likely to see snow showers and heavier snow than the areas on top of the yellow line.

This will have no impact on the day, just will be nice to see. If you live below the yellow line, you will see more heavier snow, but don't expect a winter wonderland. The snow will still probably fall at a light rate.  Also, my winter forecasts post will be coming soon. Stay tuned for that, as this winter will be more interesting than usual... maybe?

Some of the pages formatting is weird...

 If you look at the pages, you might have noticed that they don't look the way they should look. That's because I am editing them a little bit. They will be fixed soon.

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First snow of the season for the DMV today!

 I have some great news. Parts of the DMV got flurries today morning. Which means that we have recieved the first snow this year!

There is a chance for snow showers in the DMV...?

 As you all know, we are getting a lot of rain from Hurricane Zeta these past days. Well, we could actually see our first snowflakes from tonight to early Monday morning! We could see snow showers or a squall. The reason is that a cold front will pass through the DMV today, and temps will drop to the 30's/40's(20's in mountains). When that has happened, there is a chance for precipitation to come in our area; a stray (snow) shower from north, and since the temps are cold enough, there could be some snow! There's a pretty ok chance for it to happen. The air aloft is cold enough support the snow, so ground temps won't really stop the snow(basically the snow can fall without melting mid-air). Like 90% of snow events, it will be more likelier to see snow if you live north and west(I'm pretty sure mountains have and will see snow if they haven't already). Models and weather apps don't really show any snow at all, but that's because they usually don't see any stray precipitation coming for us.

It's still a chance though. So don't get too excited. It could also be a squall, which is some light rain.

It's pretty cold outside...

 It's cold outside. It's 32 (the lowest we got was down to 30) degrees outside where I live. I don't know if we have hit 32 degrees before this month or September, but I don't think we really have(in Gaithersburg at least). Anyways, if you have been following the weather lately, you know that there's a hurricane happening right now: Zeta. Although what happened in Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, and a little part of some other states are what you WOULDN'T expect. You would expect to get hit with rain... but instead, they got hit with snow, an ice storm, sleet; just winter weather. A lot of places were under a winter storm warning for 5+ inches of snow, others were in an advisory, some were in an ice storm warning to dump .3-1 inches of ice. That kind of hurt because they got this snow(not the ice storm though I don't like ice storms) IN OCTOBER. Plus, its happening in Texas. Well, the same thing happened during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. While most of the northeast that were affected by Hurricane Sandy got rain, WV(and the mountains in MD and the southern part of PA) got POUNDED with a snowstorm that brought over 24 inches of snow! Some people reported up to 3 feet, which is close to Winter Storm Jonas! And it happened on October too. So don't feel bad that they are getting winter weather this early, its because of the hurricane.

Also I am waiting for more winter forecasts to come out, so I can make a good post. Sorry I haven't been posting much lately.