Monday-Tuesday Storm Threat Update

 Well, this is unrelated to the storm I was talking about, but during the 0z run today, the GFS showed a BLIZZARD for the Thursday storm. And then... no blizzard. It still shows snow, but not a blizzard. Models will be very jumpy as we are 6 days out. Anyways, at this point in time, you should prepare for a storm impact on Monday-Tuesday. The storm will start on Monday afternoon and will end on Tuesday morning. This storm is a Cold Air Damming(CAD) situation, which means that there is a dome of cold air on the ground, but in the atmosphere, above the ground, there's warm air. The type of precipitation depends on how deep and strong the cold air is. There are still no ice accumulation/snowfall maps by any of the news stations yet, excluding the National Weather Service, which did make their first map for this storm around yesterday-today. I expect more maps to be made by tomorrow morning/afternoon, or maybe even by this evening. Let's look at some models.

European Model: 

The European model shows this storm starting as moderate-heavy snow(for most of the county), then shows it turning into a mix, and then the storm is done. The European model has actually been trending colder for this storm, but I think we are going to get some wintry mix/freezing rain. But, I will say this, from personal experience: In CAD situations, the cold air lasts longer than what the models show. Overall, the European model shows a more snowy storm than the previous runs.

American(GFS) Model:

The American Model shows the storm starting as rain, then for most of the storm, freezing rain. Some regular rain starts to creep in the lower part of the county as the freezing rain falls in the upper to middle parts of the county, and then the last precipitation the storm drops for about all of the county is regular rain. As I said, the CAD will last for longer than what this model shows, so you might see ice at a time when a model says regular rain for you. And there can be freezing rain, even with temps above freezing, due to surface temperatures, and especially with ice and snow on top of it.

CMC:

The CMC shows a snow to ice/mix to rain system for all of the county. There's not much else to say here, other than that the CAD will hold longer than this model shows. This model shows more rain than all of the other precip types. 

Now, let's look at the NWS maps!

This map from the NWS shows a wintry mix for all of our county, but this isnt specific. They also said that the wintry mix will likely go further south than what this map shows, which I agree with. This map doesn't include all of the places that will get a mix because at this point, it is in their best interest to show places that almost has a guaranteed chance to see a wintry mix.

This is the snowfall map for this storm that the NWS shows. It shows 1-2 inches for pretty much all of the county, with the extreme southern parts getting less than an inch(plus spotty areas in the county), and 2-3 inches for some of the northeastern parts of our county. I agree with this map more because the NWS is counting in for more of that wintry mix.

This is the ice accumulation map for this storm. The lower half of the county gets no ice, while the upper half gets 0.1-0.25 inches of ice, with some spotty 0.01-0.10 inches of ice mixed in. The NWS is counting for wintry mix and ice in their forecast, and I think, in terms of forecasting perspective, is the right thing to do. The more north you live, the higher the ice and snow totals will be.

I didn't show any snow or ice totals for the models because news stations' maps usually start to come out at this period, and they have a combination of all 3 models, plus more models than I have access to right now, plus with some personal instinct. But I want to talk a little bit about the Thursday storm because it looks more promising. No maps or anything though. The GFS put HUGE totals for the Thursday storm, amounts such as 15-20+ inches of snow, with it being a blizzard too. And during the 12z run, the amounts went down drastically. This jumpiness was expected this far out though. But, it's a step in the right direction. The European model now shows at least some snow for our area for this storm, which means that it is adjusting to the other models. This storm has a good shot, and the track + pattern + system for this storm is better than the storm on Monday. The NWS has put down a slight winter storm threat for this storm(Wed-Fri), but for the entire region, the DC and Baltimore NWS forecasts for. I don't think we will see a crazy, "Snowzilla" like storm for Thursday, but it could easily put down a good amount, to end the snow drought. They have all come to an agreement of some snow though, 2-4 inches. We are still very far out though, which means that we could see nothing or a significant snowstorm. We will see...

2 Storm Threats in One Week + Mon-Tue Storm Update

So you know how I said we will see at least a brief period of cold weather? Well, we have 2 storm chances, and the second one looks much more impressive than the first one. The first one is the storm on Monday-Tuesday and the second one falls around Thursday - Friday. The first storm is now less than 100 hours away, so let's talk about it! No news forecasts, at least that I am aware of, have released any maps, so instead, we will be looking at models!

FIRST STORM(MONDAY TO TUESDAY):

GFS(American Model):

As you can see, this storm turned from a snow threat, into an ice threat. The GFS is showing mostly ice for our county, with some rain at the end. We could see backend or frontend snow, but it won't be anything that's enough to be the main concern. This storm could still change, but at this point, the trend is that we the cold air won't push far enough south for us to get an all snow event, at least for this storm.

GEM(Canadian Model, aka CMC):

This model shows the precip starting out as snow and then transitioning to ice/wintry mix. I don't agree with this model that much, because I feel like its putting too much snow for our area. The biggest concern is defintely the ice, but this could happen too. We could start as snow but the precip should mostly be ice/ a mix.

European Model: 

The European model has almost all of the county starting out as a mix, then it turns into more ice. I feel like this model is what is most likely to happen (European has the most accurate track record), but I also feel like some rain could easily overtake it.

Now for the amounts. The only model that I have the exact ice accumulation amounts for is the GFS, but for the other models, I will just show total accumulated precipitation.

Canadian Model(GEM):

This model shows 0.5-0.75 inches of accumulating precipitation in total(not one certain amount). And if most of it falls as freezing rain, we could have a bit of a problem. We could have an ice storm, which is much worse than a snowstorm. We could lose power for an extended period of time, which will not be good. I will tell what this means for schools later in this post. However, this does include snow, but if we do some simple math, we can find out how much of it is ice. Assuming a 10:1 ratio, the GEM shows around 0.2 - 0.45 inches of ice. Yikes...

European Model(Euro): 

The European model doesn't show any snow falling in this storm, so almost all of it should just be ice(sleet included as well). That's 0.6-0.85 inches of ice. That's a significant ice storm, and is very dangerous. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a state of emergency for this level of ice. However, we probably will see some back/frontend snow or rain in this, but thats still a lot of ice.

GFS:

The GFS shows 0.45-0.55 inches of ice. That's already enough to cause major damage to infrastructure. However, this is total accumulated ice(precip for all of the other models), so chances are we won't be seeing this much at one time. If models keep this up, this is looking like a dangerous ice event.

The National Weather shows an enhanced threat for the upper half of the county, while the lower half is in a "slight" winter weather threat.

IMPACTS

So what impacts does this mean for school systems? Well, if you like no school, this actually looks good for no school, because ice storms, especially to the extent these models are showing, cut out the power and cause state-wide outages for an extended period of time. Crews won't be able to work on the power lines until the storm system is out of our region. And MCPS said that the only way schools would be able to close during virtual learning would be if there were countywide power outages. Well, there you have your countywide outages! Everything in Maryland would be shutdown, with the exception of essential services. I assume most people in Montogomery County don't have access to secondary power/generators, so it would probably shut down schools if the ice storm happened.

 

SECOND STORM(THURSDAY-FRIDAY):

This storm seems much more impressive because there will be an abundance of cold air in this system. This is the chance for an all snow event. But, at the same time, this is an all or nothing kind of storm. Either we get a lot of snow or just nothing. However, models are shaky about this storm. 

GFS:

The GFS does show a little bit of snow for our county, but the main snow that would bring us a good snowfall amount... is to the south. However, it's a week out, so many things will change. 

Euro:

The Euro just shows some snow showers/flurries for this storm, which is even worse than the GFS. The "bullseye" area for this storm won't get that much snow either.

CMC:

The CMC shows heavier snow for this storm than the other models. However, we still aren't in the bullseye of this storm. It seems to be south at the moment. However, stay hopeful. We are still a week out, and this can easily change. We have all the ingredients we need for this one.

I do not believe in showing snow totals for a storm that is over 5 days away, because I don't want to overhype everyone into believing we are getting a snowstorm, because when it disappears and nothing happens, people are confused. 

Summary:

The summary for this post is that there will be a storm that will be moving in on Monday-Tuesday, and it will mostly be an ice storm, and there will be a second storm on Thursday-Friday that looks much more promising for an all snow event.

New Storm Threat for the 25-26th!

 As you read the title, there's another storm threat, here we go again. However, this storm will take place during a below normal temperature period, as you might have heard of in my last post. The colder air will allow for bigger snowstorms. It's also inauguration day, during the time period when I wrote this. If you are reading this after the afternoon of today, happy inauguration day! Anyways, let's look at the models.

This image, from a tweet from Mike Thomas, shows the European model bringing heavy snow for all of Maryland during 3:30 AM. If this scenario actually happened, this would be a very good one, for snow lovers, as you will see down by the image below.

This shows our area getting a lot of snow, with over a foot of snow possible in areas! It's pretty crazy, the highest snow totals will be in eastern WV. The more west you are in this storm, the more snow you will receive. Now let's look at the American model!

The American model shows less snow for our area, unfortunately. This is a snapshot of what the GFS thinks it would look like at 10AM on Tuesday. The American model only shows us getting to about an inch, maybe take or give one. There's more, however. 

The National Weather Service shows a slight threat for not just our entire county, but for the entire region of the DMV. The reason it's a slight threat is that the threat is far out, and we don't have a good idea of how much it is going to impact the region. If the models keep this threat up, I would expect the slight threat to turn into an "Enhanced" one, a "Moderate" one, or maybe even a "High" threat. It's very possible.

This is just not a "one model shows something, the others don't" scenario. The models are in agreement, and that's surprising, especially this far out. However, because this storm is for the DMV, don't get your hopes up. Because the next day, it could be gone. Completely. My hopes are more up because of the favorable cold air and the fact that most models agree from this point out. Overnight models have held up as well. It's a week away though. So don't hold your breath.

It's going to get much colder...

 As you might have heard already, we are in a favorable pattern for snow. However, we still haven't gotten any snow at all, even in the favorable pattern for snow. However, this means that if we get a good potential for a good storm, the chances of it happening increase. But, as you read by the title, its going to get colder. 

As you can see by the image above, there is indeed going to be colder temperatures in the next 6-10 days, and chances are leaning towards being colder than normal. We have sufficient cold air for the time period of 1-22-2021 to 1-26-2021. This means that any precip potential could easily give us a snowstorm. But that's not all.

Now this one shows a much stronger and higher chance for cold air! This means that any precipitation in the period of 01-24-2021 to 01-30-2021 is probably going to be snow. Expect temperatures in this period to be much, much colder than the temperatures we have now. But there's even more. 

Now, this thing really puts a good scenario for snow in our area. Why? Precipitation(not snow, just all precipitation in general), is supposed to be above average during the time period of 01-24-2021 to 01-30-2021. With the much colder air, this could easily bring us some snow. For the first image I showed you, the precipitation is supposed to be barely below average for half of the county(eastern side). However, we can still get some good snowstorms in that period too. 

This image from Justin Berk, a meteorologist, shows that after Friday the 22nd, the temperatures start to plunge and become colder. But, it's not just one cold push. The cold is going to be sustained, from the last part of this month to the beginning of February. That is good for snow, because it gives a good period of time for some snow to fall.

In conclusion, we will start to see colder temperatures after this week, and the cold air will be sustained, while we are in a favorable pattern for snow, giving us a good chance for snowstorms. The likeliest time for significant snowstorms is between 01-24-2021 to 0-30-2021, as we get more data.

Small Pattern Update

 So you know that pattern I was talking about at the very, very beginning of the year? Well, there's been a slight change, and I am going to make a small update on it.

As this tweet from Mike Thomas shows, the NAO in the very upper part of the world is going to get very negative, and the blocking will relax. That will allow the storm track to go up north to us! As I and a lot of other people have said, after the 13-16th, a winter storm threat will become more serious and likely. When the block relaxes, and "breaks down", this is when we have seen some of our better snowstorms in our area. The next week will be warmer than usual, but when we get to the end of this month and the beginning of February, we might see some cooling and get some decent cold air. That's all for now.

January 12th Storm Update

Unfortunately, this storm has faded away, just like the 8-9th storm. It hasn't gone south, as far as I am concerned though, instead it just dissipated. The northern piece was too out of place for a phase to occur, and a phase is what we need for a snowstorm.  The next week doesn't look that great for any snow. However, after the 15th, then we have a good chance to see some good snowfall. The blocking will relax, which will allow the precipitation course(s) to go up north to us. I will be watching the models closely for a threat that could materialize. Stay tuned folks.

January 8th to 9th Storm Update and More Storm News

Unfortunately, the overhype about the first storm in this new, favorable pattern for snow has dissipated and gone to the south. The January 8th-9th storm missed our area and went to the North Carolina area. However, next week is very interesting and is very similar to what we saw in Mid-December, where we got a smaller storm on Monday and a much bigger storm on Wednesday. We have a threat to watch on 12-13, and then ANOTHER threat on the 15-16th. However, I personally think(after some research), that any storm before the 15th shouldn't be taken as seriously(not in terms of impact) because of the heavy blocking in the Arctic. Once the blocking cools down, then storms in that period of time will be more serious(not saying that we can still get serious storms before the 15th). I will be watching both threats. The models are showing mixed things for these threats, and since they are so far out, only the GFS and Euro model show precipitation for these time periods. As we get closer, I will start showing models.

I made a Snowfall Tracker Page!

I made a snowfall tracker page! I had snowfall information, but it was only for me. I decided to release it to my dedicated readers and viewers so that we can compare our totals to what was predicted, or compare them to different locations! You can access it regularly like the way you can access other pages, it should appear on the top right, right below the "Search this blog" tool. Read the page for more information. I also published my winter forecasts post! Go check it out.

The Winter Forecasts

The Snowfall Tracker

The New Weather Pattern For The Entire USA

Winter Forecasts 2020-2021

 These are the winter forecasts for this winter! This post got delayed by a long time, and I sincerely apologize for that. I have been working on this post since November, but never decided to finish it. Now it's 2021, and the first significant winter snowfall has fallen already (4 inches of snow w/o sleet, 4.25 inches with some ice). However, other than that there has been nothing. These maps can still somewhat hold up. I hope you enjoy! Sorry if it seems rushed, I tried to wrap everything as fast as I could.

WUSA 9:

Most of MoCo is in the 10-20" snow range, and the most northern is in the 20-30", and the very southern part is in the 2-10" snow range. They predict a below-average snowfall season this year. However, places more north and west will see snow totals close to average snowfall. The reason why they think this is because this year its a La Nina. This is not good for snow lovers because this is what a La Nina does(in their own words):

"The northern branch of the Jet Stream, the storm track, is forced north of the Mid-Atlantic taking the storms to our west, which draws up warm air from the south resulting in rain and not snow. Snowstorms must track south and east to hold in the cold air."

For Bethesda, they predict 13" of snow(avg = 19"), and for Dulles(closest to the amounts the northern part of the county gets), they predict 18" of snow, when the average is 23". So their range is 11-22 inches of snow for the whole county. That's below average. However, they are saying we WILL get more snow than last year. They also predict above-average temps as well. We will still get arctic outbreaks time to time though. They predict that the first measurable snow will be on Dec. 16. 

FOX 5 DC:

The Fox 5 map shows 12-24 inches of snow for the upper half of our county, while the lower half is in the 7-17 inches of snow range. This means that even if you are in the 7-17 inches of snow range, you could potentially see more snow than someone in the 12-24 inches of snow range(unlikely though), because you could see 17 inches while they could 15 inches, for example. Like the other forecasts, they predict a snowier winter compared to last year's, but still below average, and above average temperatures.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 predicts a below-average snowfall this year. They say that we will have above-average temps this year, and the main reason we aren't getting as much snow as we used to, is because of climate change and the warm winters. In Maryland, winter is the season that is warming the most, according to NBC 4. They also said that we will have a La Nina winter, which is not a good setup for snowfall. The southern part of MoCo(1/3 of MoCo) is in the 4-10" snowfall range. The other parts of MoCo are in the 7-15" snow range. For MoCo, according to this map, I would say its range is from 5-15 inches of snow.

"Over the last 20 winters, 13 have had below-average snow levels," says Doug Kammerer. "The truth is, we are just getting less and less snow around here due to climate change and warmer winters," says NBC 4. NBC 4 says for some actual snow, we need cold air, but its all locked up in the north.

ABC 7:

ABC7 is forecasting below-normal snowfall this year. About 2/5 of the county(southern part) are in the 3-13 inches of snow range, while the other 3/5 are in the 8-18" of snow range. For our county, I would say we will be seeing 6-14" of snow this year. They also predict a La Nina, which is not great if you want an average amount of snow.

If you look at the chart closely, you can see that after 2010, the annual snow in D.C has been reducing by a lot. There are spikes here and there, but for the most part, they have been starting to go down. The main reason for that would be of warming temps during winter. For temps this year, they predict it to be above average. They see an season cold snap which will make December the coolest month compared to the average temps during winter. This increases the chance of having a white Christmas in Maryland/MoCo/DC (8-20% through MD). They don't expect low temps to go in the single digits or lower, for DC at least. They expect 11-14 degrees to be the coldest of the season, if we even get there. Personally, I feel the northern side of MoCo might be able to touch the surface of single digits, if it even gets that cold. 

My Prediction:

So what do I think? I personally agree with all of these maps, and predict a below-average winter, in terms of snowfall. I also think that it won't be too much below average, so like 1-3 inches below the average snowfall, and there will be more snowfall than last year. Temperatures will be above-average, this has been a trend for the past 5 years. Don't expect the most wonderland-like winter, but also don't expect a barren winter, where it's mostly dry of snow. 2021 Update: With the new pattern that has gotten the weather community on the east coast hyped for some crazy winter weather, I actually predict an above average winter, in terms of snowfall. We haven't seen this type of pattern in quite a while. Read more about it here: https://mcpsweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-forecasts-2020-2021.html. I think that we can see some good winter storms this year, but you never know. Also, I am thinking, from next year onward, to create my own winter forecast maps, so comment on what you think of it! Should I make them, or should I do something else? Let me know. Thank you always, for the incredible support you have given. It really helps me to make the best posts I can.

A new year, a new pattern, and a new storm potential!

Read the summary down below if you don't want to read the whole article; this weather news impacts people as far south as Florida and Texas. The first part is for DMV readers, though.

Happy new year to everyone! Hopefully, we can put back 2020 and move on. As the new year has come, we also have a chance of some snow, on Tuesday, and then something else to watch, during the time period of January 8th.

This tweet from the Capital Weather Gang says the chances for over an inch of snow (SPI) is 1/10, and the chances are rising. The Tuesday snowflakes part of the tweet is nothing too crazy to look forward to, but it is the last part of the tweet that is interesting, "next week as the pattern becomes friendlier for snow." 

This is the part that is for all readers, including the ones that aren't located in the DMV.

The pattern is important for winter weather, as it can decide how much moisture or cold air we get. Last year, we had the moisture but were just lacking the cold air. In the past 5 years, we haven't really gotten any storm that was crazy(With the exception of the 2015-2016 winter and maybe the 2018-2019 winter). This winter, for the entire U.S(as far as I am concerned), is a La Nina winter, which isn't good for snow in our area, because of the warm waters RIGHT next to the Atlantic. When the moisture comes(precip), there is warm air in place and there is rain. Right after, there is cold air, but no moisture. However, we can still see some above-average snowfall, even in a La Nina.

This map shows the pattern that will be coming in the next few days(Credit to Nikhil Trivedi for getting this picture, the picture was taken from his tweet.) If you don't understand this at all(like I do), the blueish colors represent the cold air. Due to anomalous ridging(which means that all of the warm air is in the Arctic air, or at least I think so), the cold air gets displaced and put to the south(Mid-Atlantic and interior southeast), which means we get cold air(certain about the pattern bringing cold air to us).  This means that places like Florida and Georgia could see some significant snow and winter weather! This is the same type of pattern that occurred during the epic and awesome winter of 2009-2010, where D.C alone almost measured 5 feet of snow and is the winter where we got the most snowfall recorded. (The interior Northeast didn't get much snow though that year). We got big, huge snowstorms and blizzards, that occurred next to each other(These storms were close to as big as the blizzard of 2016!). This could finally bring us the winter that we snow lovers in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast have been waiting for for a long time. These kinds of storms and patterns could close schools, even through virtual learning! This is one of the most exciting things about winter weather I haven't seen in a LONG time. I know I am hyping this too much, but we have everything in place! Now... we just wait. The potential storm on January 8th is the first storm in this pattern. 

This picture, taken by Matthew Cappucci(a meteorologist for the Capital Weather Gang), explains this pattern much better. This shows that in the Northeast + Mid-Atlantic(most of it), there is increased winter potential for some good storms, and as the picture above also shows, cold air locked into most of Pennsylvania and down to include most of the southeastern and central USA. In the interior southeast(Georgia, Arkansas), there is also an increased severe weather potential for you guys(thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc.). And in the west coast, and the upper Midwest, the temperatures will be above average. There's also an active storm track coming, which is why we have a good bet on some good winter weather. Our area is above the storm track, which is good, since it means that we will be in the storm track. I will be watching that Jan 8-9 storm, and making posts about it soon.

Summary:

If you didn't read the entire article and just want a summary, there's a pattern in place for our area that will lock in cold air for the Mid Atlantic, the Southeast, and a good chunk of the central US. There will be increased winter potential for the Northeast and increased severe potential in the interior Southeast. The upper midwest and west coast will see above-average temperatures. The DMV could see some snowflakes on Tuesday, and there's a bigger storm on Friday-Saturday that will be the first storm of this new pattern. Right now, snow lovers around the east coast are rejoicing. Thank you for reading!

White Christmas Update

So, nothing has really changed for the white Christmas possibility. We won't see over an inch of snow(unless you live far north and west or in the mountains), so we won't have an official white Christmas. However, today is going to be crazy in terms of weather. Right now, in the morning, there are just mild showers(rain showers). As the day keeps going, the rain becomes heavier, and we will start to see thunderstorms, some even severe. We will start to see downpours, that could possibly lead to flash flooding. We could even see some tornadoes in areas. However,  the most likely, and most concerning issue, will be damaging winds(40mph+ possible) and flooding. Our area is under a flash flood watch, which means we could see some dangerous flooding. When we go through the night hours, the severe, rainy weather will start to wrap up as temperatures start to drastically drop. And that folks, is our chance to see some snow. The more west and north you are, the more snow you will see, because of that cold front pushing through faster. And herein lies another big concern: Black Ice. It will have rained a lot by the time temps start to become colder, and there will be enough water on everything that there will be a flash freeze. What about the snow? Snow will easily start to stick as the temps drop. There won't be much snow, as I said before, in terms of accumulations. Some areas in our county may see a coating/dusting, but that's about it. The snow may continue into the morning hours of Christmas, but will most likely wrap up by the afternoon. For the week or so, it's going to be very cold. These are below-average temperatures for December and will feel even colder because we have felt a lot of above-average winter temps in the past 4-6 years(more than average or below average). The only danger I would say for Christmas would be the black ice, other than that I think it will be fine, at least weather-wise. Merry Christmas!