Areas west of I-81 are already past their growing season(so freeze/frost warnings don't have to be issued for them); areas highlighted in purple are in the freeze warning; areas highlighted in the blue are in a frost advisory.
Good evening everyone! Today was much colder compared to previous days. And it's going to get colder. Areas west and north of the I-95 region are under a freeze warning for temperatures below 32, and as cold as 29 degrees. Areas on, or south or east of I-95 are in a frost advisory. In frost advisory areas, expect temperatures to get as cold as 33-34 degrees. For areas where the growing season won't be ended by tonight's cold weather, frost/freeze will also likely occur tomorrow and on Thursday. Nothing yet for Wednesday night or Thursday. Regardless of whether you are in a freeze warning or a frost advisory, this event lasts from 2 AM tomorrow to 10 AM.
These are the forecast low temperatures tonight. Most of the region are expected to have their lows in the 30-35 degree range, while far western areas may see lows between 25-30 degrees.
There is a freeze watch for areas north and west of the I-95 region, and this includes Northern Montgomery County. This goes into effect at 2 AM Wednesday, all the way to 10 AM. Areas west of I-81 could see temperatures as cold as 29 degrees, while areas that are in the freeze watch east of I-81 could see temperatures as cold as 31 degrees.
Areas in the blue are in a freeze watch. If things keep holding up, this will likely be upgraded to a freeze warning. I suspect that areas south of the freeze watch will at the very least get a frost advisory. This freeze/frost will most likely mark the end of the growing season. Crops will be damaged/killed by the cold temperatures. This should give you incentive to get ready for winter.
This is... something interesting. This is the forecast for Damascus, Maryland. The NWS shows a chance for some mixed rain/snow and some flakes from Thursday night into early Friday morning. Again, this is just a small chance of happening, and if it does occur, no accumulation will happen, and it will most likely be mixed. Snow in the mountains are expected though, with 1-2" possible in Oakland. Don't expect anything at the moment.
Good evening! This week, and so far October in general has been really muggy, and unseasonably hot for fall! Fortunately, a break from the hot weather is coming soon. As a storm on Saturday moves through our region, a cold front moves behind it. By the time you wake up on Sunday, it won't be hot/muggy anymore outside. This will last for a bit too. Expect highs to be in the 60s and lows to be in the 40s/50s during this time period.
You can see around Saturday night/Early Sunday morning the blue/purple circle moves through our area. This is the cold front pushing in afterthe storm moves through our area. And it lasts for a couple of days too.
There really isn't much to say about this cold front other than that it will start to feel seasonal soon. However, long range models do suggest a stratospheric warming event around the end of October/start of November, bringing us some cold air(below-average temps) from the polar vortex. That is something to watch in the near future. Once November starts, all of the news stations will start to make their winter forecasts. This winter is going to be an interesting one.
Good evening everyone! The names have been announced a while ago, but just now I saw it. The Weather Channel has released their winter storm names for this winter season! The theme this year is that "old names are now new again". Again, this is unofficial, and not affiliated with NWS. A lot of people think that calling winter storms with names are a bad idea, but I personally don't see the harm in it! What do you think of the names this year?
Have you felt it yet? The nights are getting colder, average temps are decreasing, and some areas have some leaves changing already. Winter is coming. For the start of astrological fall, we are going to have a massive cooldown. And it is going to last into October.
And also... the elephant in the room. Winter 2021-22. Although I think its still too early at the time of writing to make a full-on winter forecast for our region(as of September 18, 2021), there are some really encouraging signs for winter enthusiasts. I'll explain more later in this article.
But first, the cooldown. This is going to be happening soon. From tomorrow onwards from the twenty-third, the entire country is going to go through a cooldown.
As you can see, the blue moves across the country and is in Maryland for a while. Then, another cold front, that is much stronger, and lasts much longer, comes in! The GFS is showing cold front after cold front(blue = below average temperatures). Temps in the 40's(lows for the most part) and in the 50's(highs for the most part) can be expected.
This is the same time period, but this parameter shows how much below/above average temps are compared to normal temps for this time of year. And as you can see, it is showing dark blue, even purple and pink in some areas! This means that this cold front will bring much below average temps. However, since it is October, it won't be that cold, but it will still be very cold for fall standards, not so much for winter standards.
Now the winter. I won't say too much, but I think we are going to get a lot of snow this winter. I could be wrong, but from the info we have right now, this winter is going to seem epic.
First of all. 2016 blizzard. Every 6/7 years we get a huge storm/blizzard. 1996 to 2003 to 2010 to 2016 to 2022?? The trend has been switching to every 6 years now, and its definitely possible that we will get a really big storm this year. These storms are enough to get almost every place in our region above average in terms of snow.
Second of all, the polar vortex and teleconnections. I'll talk about the polar vortex first. We are expected to have a stratospheric polar vortex this year. What does this mean? This usually means more arctic blasts, and a weaker polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex actually means more cold temperatures for the Lower 48, because if the polar vortex is strong, it contains all of the air in Greenland and the North Pole. If its weaker, the polar vortex's cold air goes down south, which is what we want.
This shows the polar vortex during February. As you can see, there is cold air over the northeast(including Maryland).
And the next part: the QBO. The QBO is expected to be in an easterly phase, which is good for winter lovers. It usually means colder winters for the USA, a weaker jetstream, and sudden warming events in the stratosphere, which weakens the polar vortex. And for the cherry on top, we are expected to be in a weak La Nina this year, which actually enhances the effect of the QBO. It looks like we may have a strong negative AO which was the same thing that we had in the historic winter of 2010, where almost 5 feet of snow fell on the nation's capital.
But again, this is still far out. I expect to start seeing more winter forecasts specifically for our area around late October-early November. By then we will know more details. This could change drastically... but as of now its looking amazing for snow. Hopefully it still holds up! That's all for now, thanks for reading!
The tornado watch has been trimmed down to only Maryland now.
4:25 PM:
The tornado threat is starting to decrease a little bit, but that doesn't mean that the threat is completely gone. There could still be some tornadoes. Flash flooding is still a concern though. The threat is enough to still pay attention to it.
I'll update this post as new information comes in. I didn't make a post earlier because of some issues with the blog management, sorry about that!
Hello everyone! This is a test post from my new account that will be running this blog. This post won't be detailed or lengthy.
The tornado risk is at its greatest for the next few hours(2:30 PM Onward). 2000-2500 surface CAPE is in most locations in the DMV, and there has already been a wedge tornado in Anne Arundel County, including many others so far. There is a flash flood watch for the entire region, with a flash flood warning in Frederick county.
1-3 inches, with up to 5 inches of rain are possible in some areas.
Hurricane Ida is expected to bring severe storms and tornadoes to the Mid-Atlantic. A good part of Maryland is in an Enhanced Risk(D2, as of 5 PM EDT), for a 10% tornado risk, which is a lot, especially for the Mid-Atlantic. There is also a significant(moderate, red) flooding threat for today and tomorrow. The timing of Ida is between today and Thursday morning.
As you can see, almost all of our region is in the red section, meaning a moderate risk of flash flooding. Areas in the red part can expect "numerous flash floods", with significant flash flooding events likely.
As you can see, for most of Maryland, there is an enhanced risk of severe weather. We usually only get slight/marginal risk, and an enhanced risk doesn't happen that often.
This is the tornado risk for our area(Green = 2%, Brown = 5%, Yellow = 10%). The chances don't seem that high, until you realize that the chances are for every location in those colors to see a tornado.
This is the wind chance. Areas in the yellow have a 15% chance of seeing 58 MPH winds or higher for every location in that yellow spot.
Instabillity tomorrow around the region will be 1500-2000 MLCAPE, which is more than enough to spawn tornadoes. There will also be a lot of shear(up to 70 kts of shear, with 80 kts in isolated areas). The sheer is enough for any thunderstorm updraft to have the potential to spawn a tornado.
TORNADO WARNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE! SEEK SHELTER IF YOU LIVE ANYWHERE IN THE WARNING!
5:25 PM:
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for areas near the Mason-Dixon line. 60 MPH wind, quarter sized hail, and a tornado is all possible with this storm.
3:35 PM:
The threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds should start to increase slightly as the afternoon passes. "Low level shear / SRH remains sufficient to support some tornado threat." - SPC
3:20 PM:
Tornado warning for Allegany and Washington County until 3:45 PM EDT. Seek shelter in a basement or the lowest floor, with the least amount of windows(stay away from windows).
2:50 PM:
A recorded 78F dew point has been recorded in Baltimore and DC! This is a very rare event to get dew points this high(source: capital weather gang), and it means that the air is super moist and humid.
2:10 PM:
There is some signs of rotation in the storm near Ellicott City.
2:00 PM:
There is some rotation in the storm near Waterloo. I'll be keeping an eye on that.
1:50 PM:
It turns out that the best chance for tornadic activity is the I-95 area and east at this point(info from Capital Weather Gang).
1:25 PM:
As storms with heavy rainfall rates(some have rates of 1-2" per hour), conditions become more favorable for isolated, brief tornadoes.
Hello everyone! This is going to be the first weather post I'll be posting for the first time in a month. And to start it off, we are dealing with a tornado outbreak from the ghost of tropical depression Fred! Yes, you heard that right, a tornado outbreak. Veteran storm chaser, Reed Timmer has put our region in the "TORNADO OUTBREAK region".
Reed Timmer has made a premiere about the tornado outbreak for our area.
There is a tornado watch for our region until 8 PM. Small marble sized hail and 70 MPH wind gusts are possible, plus a few tornadoes. This event continues until 8 PM EDT.
There is also a flash flood watch for almost all of the region too, except for our southeastern areas. Rain may fall at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour, and storm totals in isolated areas may even reach up to 3 inches.
MODEL RUN: 15z HRRR
The HRRR shows 1000-2250 MLCAPE for Montgomery County, and up to 2500 MLCAPE for the rest of Maryland. This is more than enough to supply fuel for severe storms.(6PM Eastern).
The 15z HRRR shows around up to 35 kt of shear in Montgomery County, and around 40+ in some parts of Maryland. This is somewhat decent and can help make storms. 4 PM Eastern.
The 15z HRRR shows -5 to -8C of lift, which is a very good amount for storms to spawn.(3P Eastern)
The HRRR shows crazy dew ppoints, with up to 80F dew points in some of Maryland! Thats's crazy, and is very moist and humid for storms to form.
The SPC shows a slight risk for most of Maryland, with a 5% tornado chance for every location to see a tornado in the brown(top right) and in the bottom right, a chance for 58+ MPH winds for any location in the green.
Since this is my first post after a while, I'm not going to go too much into detail. I will update this post as new information comes in.
Hi guys! I haven't been posting for 5/6 weeks. Most of you already know the reason but for those that don't: I was on vacation on India for 3 weeks and was packing and getting ready to go to India before that. That's pretty much the reason. I'll start to post more now!
During the severe weather events of July 1, 2021, there was a tornado warning issued for downtown DC and parts of Arlington County.
As you can see from this picture, any place in the red area was in the tornado warning. Last Friday(July 2nd, 2021), the NWS put out a public statement, confirming 2 tornadoes. Let's take a look at the first one, in Arlington County.
This is the tornado that touched down in Arlington County. It lasted for around 6 minutes, from 8:59 PM EDT - 9:05 PM EDT, and on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, the tornado was an EF-1, with its peak winds at 90 MPH. Thankfully there was no injuries or deaths from this tornado. The maximum width(of the funnel/tornado itself) at its peak was 125 yards, and it covered 4.4 miles. In the picture, the red path is where the tornado crossed, with damage reports shown to determine the strength of the tornado. Remember, the tornado is given a rating on the damage it causes, not its peak wind. From the damage it creates, we can estimate the wind speed of the tornado.
This is the tornado that touched down in DC, specifically in H St Corridor NE-Kingman Park. This tornado earned an EF0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, and it lasted for 2 minutes, from 9:08-9:10 PM EDT. At its peak, the winds were 80 MPH. It's maximum width at its peak was 75 yards, and it covered 0.75 miles. The red line shows where the tornado crossed, and the damage reports. The main damage reports here were just trees being down, and large limbs being snapped. Thankfully there were no injuries or deaths.
Tornadoes in DC don't usually happen, and damage from storms are usually from straight-line winds, so this is pretty surprising! Thankfully, no injuries or deaths were recorded from these tornadoes, or the storms that move through as far as I know.
TORNADO WARNING FOR DC. SEEK SHELTER NOW IF YOU ARE IN THE AFFECTED AREA!!
3:35 PM:
There is a flash flood warning for Bethesda and a good amount of Fairfax county. Get to higher ground now if you live in those areas!
3:10 PM:
Severe thunderstorm warning for parts of Northern MoCo, 60 MPH wind and penny sized hail are possible.
2:45 PM:
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for Northern MoCo. 1" hail and 60 MPH wind is possible with this storm.
2:40 PM:
The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for most of our area. The area in the circle has the greatest threat for damaging wind gusts(short term).
"Storms have begun to congeal into clusters across
northern VA and MD, with a leading supercell approaching the
Chesapeake Bay. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will continue to
support storm organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and
leading supercells possible. Even though lapse rates aloft remain
modest, hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter has been reported with
the leading supercell in MD. Occasional severe hail may remain
possible in the short term with any storm that can remain at least
semi-discrete. Otherwise, scattered damaging wind gusts will likely
be the primary severe threat as storms continue spreading eastward
this afternoon. The greatest threat for damaging wind gusts should
exist across parts of northern VA into central/eastern MD and DE
where robust heating is supporting MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and
steep low-level lapse rates. At least an isolated damaging wind
threat may also exist with a small cluster of storms moving eastward
across far southeastern PA into southern NJ, but instability is
comparatively weaker with northward extent across this region owing
to earlier precipitation/storms." - SPC
2:30 PM:
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for southern MoCo. Expect 60 MPH wind and 0.75" hail.
There is a slight risk today for the DMV, and also a flash flood watch for areas east of the Blue Ridge from 2PM this afternoon through tomorrow morning. There is also a severe thunderstorm watch mostly for areas east of the Blue Ridge as well.
There is a severe thunderstorm watch for areas east of the Blue Ridge, including MoCo. Expect 1/2" sized hail(isolated), and wind up to 70 MPH, plus frequent lightning strikes.
There is a slight risk for eastern and semi-northern areas, and a marginal risk for northern areas. The main threats are flooding and wind. In the yellow, is a 15% chance for any area in the yellow to see 58+ MPH winds, and a 5% chance in the green.
This is the flash flood watch. Areas in the green are in the flash flood watch. A widespread 0.5-1" of rain can be expected(areas outside of the watch), but within the flash flood watch, 1-3" of rain can be expected, with localized areas having more.
This is a sounding from the HRRR at 2-3 PM EDT. It shows around 2000 MLCAPE, and a good amount of moisture. The shear is meh, and the lapse rates are generally good.
I'll update this post more often as the day goes on.
