Slight Risk for Most of the Region Today

 

 5:05 PM Update:

 

There is a severe thunderstorm warning for all of Montgomery County and most of Fairfax and Howard County, plus some of Loudoun County. Expect 60 MPH wind and penny sized hail with this storm(0.75" hail).

2:45 PM Update:

A severe storm watch has been issued for most of the DMV. Expect up to lime sized hail(2" hail!!), wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and frequent lightning. 169 hospitals, 3190 schools, and almost 13 MILLION people are affected by this severe watch.

There is a slight risk for most of the region, marginal risk for our southern regions, and an enhanced risk north of the mason dixon line. The main risks are large hail and damaging winds. This post is gonna be more of a nowcast post instead of a forecast, and I won't go into too much detail today.

In the top left, in the green there is a 2% chance to see a tornado 25 miles away from a certain point, and in the brown a 5% chance to a see a tornado 25 miles away from a certain point. In the bottom left, in the green is a 5% chance to see 1"+ hail 25 miles away from any given point and a 15% chance to see 1"+ hail 25 miles away from any give point in the yellow. In the bottom right, in the green there is a 5% chance to see 65+ mph winds 25 miles away from any given point, a 15% chance to see 65+ mph winds 25 miles away from any certain point, and in the red, a 30% chance to see damaging winds 25 miles away from any given point.

 

This sounding form the 16z HRRR at 3 PM EDT shows 2000 MLCAPE, a critical angle of 84, good dew points and temperature(Northern MoCo). Shear is pretty bad, but I would assume this sounding supports hail more than wind. There is a good amount of MLCAPE, including critical angle and the dew points are sufficient enough. Only thing that's bad here is the shear.

As I said in the beginning, this is more of a nowcast post then a forecast post, and I tried my best to get this article out as fast as I could. Sorry if it seems a little sloppy. I will update this post as new information comes in.