TORNADO WATCH FOR MOCO AND MOST OF MARYLAND AND SOME OF VIRGINIA

2:27 PM
The thunderstorm has ended, and now it is sunny outside! At least for now...
2:10PM
The thunderstorm has arrived! The sky went from mostly cloudy to dark and cloudy in just seconds. Inside my house, my lights are flickering. There was thunder, and you better believe it was loud! There was also lightning, but mainly thunder. There was thunder before the rain. Torrential downpours are falling outside my house, and I can hear the winds howling as they gust.
2:01 PM
The severe thunderstorm warning has been extended to 2:45 PM.
1:28 PM
There is a severe thunderstorm warning for 55% of MoCo(the northern half) that includes Gaithersburg, Clarksburg, Damascus, and Olney. Most of Fredrick County, some parts of Loudoun County, and Caroll county are in the warning as well. It ends at 2:00 PM. There is also an Areal Flood Warning for NW Washington and Southern and Central MoCo. The tornado watch and wind advisory are still here.

11:43 AM
There is a tornado watch for most of Maryland, including MoCo and D.C., and parts of Virginia(eastern VA). Those watches may turn into warnings. There is sleet like hail and torrential downpours outside my house(including minor flooding). 

Severe Weather Sunday Night- Monday

There is severe weather likely for parts of the Southeast, and that includes the DMV. There is a wind advisory for MoCo, and other parts of Maryland, including most of Virginia, and everyone else(except for D.C, who is in a wind advisory) is in a high wind warning. Tonight and tomorrow, there will be thunderstorms and rain, severe possible, with lots of winds, some damaging. There could also be hail and even tornadoes. However, the main concern for tornadoes is far south, but it could still happen here. There could even be flooding. It says this all in the hazardous weather outlook(note: this is for the NWS station for DC/Baltimore):  "A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the area beginning at 4 AM EDT tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected late tonight. Heavier showers and thunderstorms may contain locally damaging wind gusts after midnight. There is also a threat for localized flooding after midnight. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains and adjacent areas from 6 AM to 6 PM Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect elsewhere until 6 PM EDT Monday. Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday, especially during the mid-morning and afternoon hours. Damaging winds, large hail, and an increased threat for tornadoes exists. Localized flooding is also possible on Monday."

This outlook says it all. There could be power outages and downed trees, especially in areas who are under a high wind warning. Since everyone is staying home, the best advice I can give you is to be prepared for severe weather and be ready in the event of a tornado warning. You can do that by turning on your emergency alerts, check the radio/news, etc., and in case of a tornado, go down to your basement(your lowest floor) and/or go to a room with no windows(or the least amount in your house).

Weather Risks Mon-Sat. Index on the far left. 

American Model shows Snow Threat on April 17

Ok fine, I'm gonna admit that I haven't really been checking much weather lately; what not all with this pandemic going on. But, I decided to check, and I found a snow threat that the American Model showed on April 17. Personally, I think that it isn't going to happen. But if it does, and snow falls, I think that could be a record here. First of all, the April sun angle will DEFINITELY melt snow that falls lightly or moderately, the snow has to fall heavily for any stickage at all; most of the snow would probably melt in the air because of the April sun angle. However, there is a "solution" to this problem, and that solution would be snow falling in the night. However, the temps would HAVE to be below 32 degrees, and snow would have to be falling at least moderately for maybe some accumulation. If temps are not below 32, snow rates would have to be at least 2-3+ inches of snow per hour, which is insane, and the only times I can recall that ever happening was in the blizzard of January 22-23 2016, or the blizzard of February 5-6 2010, which were BLIZZARDS. And even if that happens, surface temps will be well above freezing, so snow will have to fall heavily, but if temps are below 32, sooner or later, that issue will be solved. And for the biggest problem why: THIS STORM IS MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY AND WILL CHANGE!!!! But however, I have some great news for you snow lovers! The weather for the second half of next week looks to be chilly for mid-April standards. The pattern for this month looks to be favorable for cold weather and snow. If this happened in January, February, March, I could have confidently have predicted snow. But since it is April... I wouldn't exactly count on it, but there is hope. We have all the ingredients for snow, but what we need for snow is for the ingredients to line up a little more right. I am not saying that the chance is high for snow, but I am just saying, it is actually plausible. In summary, I am basically trying to say that the weather is going to become chillier, and there could be a chance for some snow as we go on, but I wouldn't count on it.

The American and European Model at 1AM EDT(Blue= Snow Green = Rain Purple= Very Heavy Snow)

Mixed Precipitation Possible Sunday Night to Monday Early AM

There is a chance that we will see some mixed precipitation(this could mean sleet, freezing rain, snow, mixed rain and snow, etc.). However, that chance increases the further north you go. The Blue Ridge and the Allegany Front will probably see snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain, with minor accumulations expected. However, for MoCo, even if we do see mixed precipitation, there will be no accumulation at all. Temps will be too high for any sticking. This will either change into rain or stay rain all throughout the course of this night(depending on where you live). However, in the hazardous weather outlook issued by the NWS for our county said that pockets of freezing rain may continue into Monday morning, however, I think they are talking about the mountains. Damascus' elevation is around 800 feet, so mixed precip there is pretty plausible(I am not saying that it is likely, but I am saying that that area has a better chance than the rest of the county). The NWS shows mixed precip EXPECTED for half the county valid Sunday-Monday(8AM)(however this map is very zoomed out so I can't really see if it covers the whole county or just a certain part). I don't think everyone will see mixed precip, but it is definitely possible, and not out of the question.

The National Weather Service shows mixed precip for about half the county, happening between 8 AM Sun-8 AM Mon.

Snow/Mixed Rain and Snow Possible Sunday Night-Monday?

I am not buying this threat. Pretty much every winter weather threat this winter has disappeared or turned into rain. Anyways, the GFS shows some winter weather(snow possibly mixed with rain) Sunday night throughout Monday. However, the GFS shows the snow turning into rain, with temps above freezing above 7-8AM Monday, with some places in the county getting above freezing before that(8PM Sunday-5AM Monday). The above 32-degree weather, plus with the March sun angle, which will make surfaces warmer and melt snow, almost guarantees no accumulation. The only way we get can some accumulation(in the morning of Monday) is if the snow falls at a >1" snow per hour rate, that gets higher as the day goes on. We are also coming off of 80-degree weather(possibly)
on both Thursday and Friday(in the mid to upper 70's on those specific days for the whole county). If this threat even materializes(which is highly unlikely), there will probably be no accumulation anyways. And schools are already closed, so it would have no impact on schools, and playing IN THE SNOW is not advised, because COVID-19 or any other type of coronavirus likes cold weather more than warm weather.

Mixed Snow and Rain Possible Saturday Night-Sunday Morning

Snow could mix in with the showers/rain in MoCo tonight, mainly in our northern areas(and places north and west of MoCo). There could also be mixing early Sunday AM as well. However, since temps will stay above 32 degrees, there should be no accumulation, and probably mixed rain and snow, not full, plain snow. We are expected to enter a cold pattern(including the rest of the Northeast) around late March. This means that snow chances could be a little bit higher than normal for that time of the year(keyword: could). Will it really happen? I personally think that it is likely. Snow chances? I don't really know, it depends how cold it will get. Temps could still stay above average but be colder than it is right now, temps could be average, or temps could be below average. We need to be below average for a chance for snow.  However, due to MCPS closing for 2 weeks due to COVID-19, if snow falls between 3-15-2020-3-30-2020, it won't have any impact because schools are already closed. Because of the USA entering into a colder pattern, don't be surprised if we have out of season cold, and even snow threats. Anyways, the severe weather season is starting, so my posts will start to become more severe weather related.

COVID-19 Closing Possibility

The World Health Organization(WHO) just announced the coronavirus as a pandemic. There are 28 cases across the DMV, 9 cases in Virginia, 12 cases in Maryland, and 11 cases in DC(1 of them are in Congress). The mayor of DC has declared a state of emergency, and so has Maryland(not yet Virginia but I think there will be soon as the virus spreads). Since this virus is now a pandemic, the closure chances increase. There is no delay or early release in this situation, only no school or a full day of school. According to credible sources, the coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the flu. Symptoms of the coronavirus are very similar to the flu and common cold, so it is very hard to tell them apart unless tested. Also(these aren't rumors), students from Wootton High School and Robert Frost Middle School went to the Village(elderly house) in Rockville for SSL hours and possibly had contact with the people who had the coronavirus. The coronavirus spreads really quickly and is spread by person to person. However, the coronavirus seems to mainly be infecting the elderly and people with weakened immune systems. I think that coronavirus cases will increase exponentially in the next two weeks.


Do not panic though; these are just facts. If you avoid large gatherings and wash, wash, wash your hands, you should be okay.


Closure chance, as of 03/11/2020, 7:30 PM(for tomorrow): 49%


Closure chance for Friday: 50%


Closure chance next week: 55-65%(higher as the week goes on)


I am much better at predicting school impacts due to weather than due to viruses, so I won't be as good at predicting school closures due to viruses. So, I might get predictions wrong, and I am sorry if I do. I have experience predicting before I made this blog(around 2015 is when I started). However, with viruses, I don't have a gut feeling and experience for this type of situation, so it is much harder to predict it. Also, unlike with weather, you can only get knowledge when things are happening. You can't predict the coronavirus. You can kind of tell and predict whether a storm will be a good one from 3-4 days away(there are a lot of ups and downs though). From my predictions, MCPS will close by at least next week, if they care about their students' safety, which they say they do. There is also a petition for MCPS to take action for COVID-19 and to close schools. Montgomery College and UMD have already canceled physical classes/or about to cancel them and have switched/or are about to switch to an online environment. MCPS will do that soon.  In my opinion, they should close, because things are going to get a lot, lot worse.

There is a snow threat that will probably just fade away...

The American model(GFS) is trying to produce some snow on Sunday(4 AM-5 PM) that will turn to mix to rain, as a weak storm passes by south. The European Model(EURO) shows that the storm will lack moisture and cold air. Temps have been in the 60-70s all week(so far), and the March sun angle is there, so accumulation will be hard if this even happens. I am not buying it though. This threat will likely disappear quickly. At this point, I will be happy if we get any snow.

Mike Thomas' tweet about a snow system and precip(GFS Output) at 8AM.

Closing Possibility and New Updates

There is a chance for closure in the upcoming weeks, which includes today(above 1%), but it's not due to weather. The weather is warm and nice and not winterish at all! Due to global events(new sickness) that are starting to affect the DMV, there is a chance of closure. Although it's impossible to predict how and what is going to happen if things become worse and spread, schools could close. Many rumors and fake news are flying around saying that MCPS will close, but MCPS went out and said that that news was fake and schools were opened on time, at the moment. However, this could change, although I think schools will stay open for this whole week at least. Things could definitely change and schools will close, or schools will keep on staying open. New info shows that MCPS students could have contact with this novel, new sickness for SSL hours, but it is unlikely that people under the age of 15 will get COVID-19. It is definitely something to watch, though. This winter has been very boring and not that exciting, so I will do my best to keep posting. However, this blog is not going to shut down after March, oh no! I will post about MCPS and this new COVID-19, and mainly, SEVERE WEATHER(tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, hail, etc.). Daily forecasts were delayed, but they should come out soon. I will still keep an eye out for winter weather, although I think it is unlikely we will get any winter weather. This winter ends with 4.8" of snow in Gaithersburg, with 2 traces of snow(unmeasurable snow that sticks to the ground). What a horrible pity... We expected 15-30" of snow, but instead, we got less than 5"(most places got less than 4"). The average snowfall was 16-27" of snow. I have given up on winter. I have hope, but I am starting to think it is useless. I hope this severe weather season will be good and interesting! 

WET COATING POSSIBLE Flurries/Snow Showers Friday WET COATING POSSIBLE

UPDATE: A wet coating is possible and can't be ruled out.

There will probably be snow on Friday-Saturday Early AM. There will be flurries/snow showers, with some light to somewhat moderate bands of snow possible. Snow could be mixed and probably will as temps fall close to 32 during Friday evening. All of MoCo should see mixed rain/snow and snow. There could even be accumulation in Northern MoCo(Damascus, Clarksburg), but even if there is, it will probably be a trace(measurable snow sticking). Critical timing Friday 7 PM- Saturday 4AM(there could be two waves).

There is a chance for snow?

On Friday night, there is a 20-30% chance of a mixed rain or snow shower(according to NWS). I think that there will be a mixed rain or snow shower on Friday night(50-75% chance IMO). There could even be sticking in our very northern areas in MoCo, but the highest chance of sticking is north and west of MoCo. If there is sticking, there would probably just be a trace, a dusting at most(not in MoCo though). So far, it's an early spring! I am still watching the weather for any weather threats, March 10-14 seems to be something to look out for, but that's over a week away so it's probably going to go away like most threats in this winter. Expect and enjoy the mild weather!