Snowflakes Possible Tonight

 There is a chance for some snowflakes, mixed with rain at times, to fall tonight. This event should be mostly rain, but in the upper elevations of Northern MoCo, snowflakes are not out of the question. We may also see some sleet, possibly mixed with rain(it could mix with snow at times) during the course of the night.  Southern MoCo may see one or two snowflakes fall, but that's about it for them. This won't accumulate much; if there is even accumulation in the first place. The most there should be is a coating, and that's being very optimistic. Temps will likely remain too warm for snow, and flakes will be fat and wet. If you want to see some snowflakes, 500-600 feet and above in elevation might be a good bet. Everyone should turn over into rain by Saturday morning though. This will be mainly for the more inland, higher elevation areas. Precipitation should move in the next hour or so, and for the most part, should be plain old rain.

Spring is Coming... but Winter is Still Here...

Yesterday, we had very mild and nice weather. It felt like spring. And with temps expected to be warmer than the rest of February, some people are going under the unfortunately wrong thought that winter is mostly wrapped up. I know I already made a post about how winter wasn't over, and I still stand by that. I will be giving more data from more experts as well. 

Winter really had fun toying with us in February, cause it was the first time since 2015 that we had below-average temperatures. We also had 9 storms. However, we didn't really get that much snow from them. In theory, they should have gotten our snow totals much above average. La Nina doesn't really work out for us though, but this winter was still a good season, primarily for our northern suburbs and more inland areas. And we still have March to go.

Now March... you've heard the saying "March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb". Yeah no, it will probably stay as a lion for a good part of the month. The European ensemble is showing some very interesting connections that need to be watched.

Credit to Justin Weather for this image

The AO is positive, except for March 5 alone, where it's neutral/slightly negative.  This is not good for snow, however, the time period of March 5-10 needs to be watched closely. Pattern fluctuations during this time period are possible, and even somewhat likely! Justin Berk says that "he does not see anything major before March 12 in the arctic oscillation", which is fair, considering that it's positive. However, it still needs to be watched very closely.

Credit to Justin Berk(Justin Weather) for this image

The NAO is slightly negative for the start of March up to March 6th, and that pattern supports snow. But from March 5-10, we need to watch the NAO. It goes strongly positive and then starts to go down to slightly negative/neutral. This is what I meant by pattern fluctuations. We need to watch early - mid-March, cause patterns are going to keep fluctuating rapidly.

Tweet from Judah Cohen:

Dr. Judah Cohen, an expert on the Arctic and how it can affect the weather here, has pointed out that the GFS is showing another arctic buildup during the 2nd week of March, where Greenland blocking returns and increases the risk for colder weather, including snowfall for Europe, and how it could possibly expand to us in the eastern US. Another person in the comments of this tweet(Michael Solomonides) stated that this pattern is also starting to show up on the long-range runs of the European model

Credit to Justin Berk

And just to add insult to injury, do you see the temperature fluctuations during early March. From down to up, and from up to down... There is a consistent cold after March 1st, and the trend seems to be going colder(European Model for Baltimore).

And you know how I was talking about La Nina? During La Nina winters, there's usually something that comes in March, even if the winter so far wasn't that great. During the winters of 2016-17 and 2017-18, IAD(airport closest to MoCo) had its snowiest March, due to Winter Storm Stella(2017) and Winter Storm Toby(2018). I don't think our snowiest month will be March, even with that being said, but the point is March cannot be underestimated. And for people who have lived here for a long time, I think you know that already. During the superstorm of March 1993, IAD measured 14.1 inches of snow! Heavy snow fell while temps were marginal(33-35)! 3 FEET of snow fell in Westminster, in Carroll County during that storm! March 2014 was the snowiest March since 1963 for IAD, where 19.3 inches of snow fell. All I want to say is that winter is not out of the game.

Saturday Snow?

 There has been some agreement on the models for snow to sneak in during the overnight hours on Saturday. This will be a snow to rain event, so the areas that will see the most snow will be north and west of I-95. The temps even while it's snowing will be marginal, so snow should only stick on the grass. This won't be anything significant, but is something to watch for sure. 

The NWS has issued a slight threat for upper Montgomery county and NW areas of I-95. I won't be showing any raw model data because the impacts are so light. The European model generally shows accumulation that is less than an inch, snow to mix to rain, the CMC shows around an inch, with some isolated areas pushing a bit more, snow to a cold rain event, and the GFS shows almost all rain, with a little bit of snow/mix on the onset. It is something that could make morning plans a little bit more difficult, but I don't think it will cause any cancellations or major changes. Everything will be washed away from the rain anyways.

Final Monday Clipper Update

 This will be a minor event, and will also be a quick one. This event is a snow to mix to rain type of event. However, the timing of the storm could disrupt the morning rush hour. The snow is expected to generally start after sunrise, but a lot of storms this year have started earlier than expected, so I think it could start before sunrise. The impacts would be greater if it did. There is a winter weather advisory for Northern MoCo, stating snow accumulations of 1-3 inches of snow, and a special weather statement for Southern MoCo, stating the possibility of snow impacting the rush hour. We will see how it plays out, if temps are colder than expected I think we could see an advisory in Southern MoCo. Let's look at some models.

GFS:

The GFS shows light snow turning over into moderate-heavy rain. Snow rates will be moderate, and possibly heavy at times. Be vary if traveling.

The GFS shows almost no snow. I don't agree with this.

European:

The European model shows snow moving in around 7-10 AM and then shows it turning into a mix, and then eventually, rain. Northern zones have the most time with snow and mixing before turning into rain. I know that it doesn't show snow, but that's only because it shows 6-hour blocks, so it likely shows some sort of snow before turning into a mix. The same applies to the mix turning into plain old rain.

The European shows 1-4 inches of snow, with 3-4 inches in Damascus and 1-2 inches in Bethesda. This is assuming a 10:1 ratio of course, and I assume Kuchera ratios have less snow, but I don't have access to it. 

HRRR:

The HRRR shows snow turning into a mix but also shows the snow trying to fight back a bit at the end of the storm. It shows some rain getting in, but mainly in southern MoCo. This seems to be one of the more colder solutions. If heavy precipitation caused good dynamic cooling, this solution could be possible. We should be below freezing on the onset and slowly rise above freezing as we go later into the day.

The HRRR shows 1-3 inches of snow, with the most snow in Damascus and the least snow in Bethesda.

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows the snow starting around 8-10 AM and then turning into an icy mix before turning into rain.

The NAM shows up to an inch of snow, with the most in Damascus and least in Bethesda.

The NAM, unfortunately, shows a lot of ice; 0.15 - 0.3 inches of ice, which would be enough to break some trees and cause spotty power outages. Hopefully, this doesn't play out and we see less ice and more snow.

NWS: 

The NWS shows 1-2 inches for most of Northern MoCo, less than one inch in Southern MoCo, and 2-3 inches in Damascus. 

For this clipper, a trace to an inch of snow possible in Southern MoCo, with localized areas possibly seeing a bit more, and 1-3 inches in Northern MoCo. The most snow will be in Damascus, and in Northern MoCo, like usual. Everyone will start out as snow, then turn into a mix, eventually, turning into all rain. Northern areas will see the longest period of time with snow and mixed precipitation. I don't expect much in ice accumulation if there is even any. Temps will rise above freezing around noon, but snow can still fall while it's at or above 32. The storm may start before sunrise(even though it's expected to start after sunrise), due to a history of storms this year starting a bit earlier than expected. This will be a low-impact storm, but still should be taken carefully. Snow may fall at a moderate, and maybe even heavy rate at times. 

Monday Clipper Update

First, unfortunately for us snow lovers, this won't produce that much snow. The amount is light; however, the timing is not good. It seems to be hitting after sunrise, but storms this year tend to start a little bit earlier than expected, and if it does start before sunrise, the impact will be greater. Nonetheless, it starts at 6-10 AM, which is when the morning rush-hour starts. This seems to be a snow to mix to a cold rain type of event. This storm is a quick hitter though, so any amount of snow will accumulate fast.

GFS:

The GFS shows heavy snow turning into heavy rain before the storm is done. It shows the storm starting around 7-10 AM and shows the storm ending by the late afternoon/early evening(around 4p).

The American model shows 1-3 inches of snow, with the most snow in NE MoCo(Damascus).

European:

The European shows a quick transition to rain(there is snow, it just doesn't show it) before heading off into the sea.

The European model shows 1-3 inches of snow, with the most snow in NE MoCo(10:1 ratio).

CMC:

The CMC shows the storm starting as snow around 7a - 12p on Thursday, and shows it turning into rain before moving out at 4-7p Thursday.

It shows a good 3-4 inches of snow from this storm(assuming a 10:1 ratio).

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows no snow and instead ice for Northern MoCo before turning into all rain and then leaving.  It shows the freezing rain falling at a very heavy rate, in a short amount of time. It's all rain for southern MoCo.

Ice Accumulation:

The NAM shows all the way from a glaze of ice to a quarter-inch of ice, and the most ice is in NE MoCo. Hopefully, this doesn't happen and we get snow instead; ice is much more worse.

This is looking like a "light" type of storm on my snowstorm rating system. The best bet for 1-3 inches is in Northern MoCo, and for Southern MoCo, a trace to 2 inches of snow is a good bet. It all depends on how long the cold air lasts, and some sort of mixing is likely. We will switch over to all rain, and that's for everyone. 

What we know:

- There will be wintry precipitation on Monday

- The onset is around 7-10 AM, but storms this year have tended to have come earlier than expected, so the storm starting before sunrise is a possibility

- If the storm started before sunrise, the impact would be higher

- Some sort of mixing is likely before the turnover to rain

What we don't know:

- How fast we switch over into rain

- How much mixing will occur

- How much snow will fall

I will make another post tomorrow. 

Is Winter Over Yet?

Next week, after Monday, there will be a warmup, with highs in the 50's and might even reach around 60! And if you are more on the technical side, we will also get out of the stormy pattern that's been hitting us constantly with winter storms. And now, some people are saying things like "Winter is fading out", or "Spring is coming in fast." 

While I would like mild temperatures and warm weather, the answer is no. Winter is not over, and won't be any time soon. Tomorrow and Sunday are going to frigid; likely the coldest air of the season. Lows will drop into the teens and highs will struggle to get above freezing. A massive refreeze is coming, and you should be prepared for icy spots tomorrow. Wind chills will make it feel 10-15 degrees colder than it is, and will be in the teens all the way into the single digits at times.

Although the warmup will happen, and from there, temps won't be too cold, we have a good pattern coming into March; one that we haven't had this winter: a negative NAO and a positive PNA. Early March is going to interesting, and we will likely have many threats. Those are all good patterns for snowstorms. I think we will see at least another 1-2 inches of snow areawide(maybe not DC though) before this winter is actually done. You can quote me on that if it doesn't happen.

The European ensemble shows a positive PNA for early March. This makes atmospheric and surface temperatures below average. Research shows that positive PNA produces more winter weather events, and the number of them is above average. 

The European ensemble shows a negative NAO for early March. A negative NAO means colder temperatures for Northern America, and they linger. It sets up a blocking pattern for the Atlantic. During the winter of 2009-2010, the NAO was strongly negative during that time, which caused dumps of snow and frigid weather.

We already have 2 threats to watch in the upcoming week: one on Monday and another one next Friday. Monday looks like snow to a cold rain event, but this event should generally be small. Friday is too far out to discuss details, for now, let's just say it's an all rain event because the models have been so bad this year. We have a little bit of agreement for some wintry precipitation Friday, so I will watch it closely. Expect it to be a bust if it materializes, as with almost every winter storm this year.

The NWS shows a slight threat of a winter storm for Monday-Tuesday.

In conclusion, winter is not over. Although we will see a warmup midweek, our pattern is favorable for early March, and a positive PNA has not happened in this winter; and a positive PNA is favorable for snow and colder temps. Tomorrow and Sunday will likely be the coldest temps of the year, with temps in the teens and wind chills in the single digits at times. We have threats on Monday and next Friday, Monday seems to be a snow-rain event, but Friday is too far out to discuss details. I hope you are ready for more winter, cause it's not going anywhere soon.

2/18/2021 Storm Recap

This storm was a bust, in terms of snow totals. However, we got a lot of sleet. I have never seen this much sleet in my life. It was powdery and really good for sledding. A massive refreeze will occur tonight, so leave the salt out.

Snow Totals(sleet included):

This is the amount of snow, sleet included, that fell across the region. It shows 0.8(around an inch) - 3 inches across the county, with the most snow and sleet in NW MoCo. I myself recorded 3 inches of snow and sleet, I know at least 1 inch of snow fell though if we are differentiating both of them. The storm started as snow/sleet but quickly changed to sleet for everyone. Sleet rates were so heavy at times, and surface temps were so cold that the sleet was more powdery than icy. Snow tried to fight back the sleet in Northern MoCo during the onset(5a-12p). Snow started to taper off by then. Light precipitation fell through the afternoon and as we got into the evening, freezing drizzle fell and accumulated on all surfaces. On Friday, on and off light precipitation fell, and another coating, all the way up to 1 inch of snow fell.

Ice Totals:

Most everyone didn't see over 0.1 inches of ice, according to this map(one localized area in NW MoCo has 0.15 inches of ice), although I have localized reports of areas getting up to a quarter-inch, and possibly a little over that. I myself measured 0.20-0.25 inches of ice.

Overall, this storm wasn't a good storm, but it will be somewhat memorable, due to the amount of sleet that fell.

Final Forecast for Thursday-Friday Snowstorm and Snowflake Prediction

Well, this may be the first time I am saying this in a long time, but it's looking fairly well for snow lovers. We should see at least 3 inches of snow, and probably more in some areas. However, ice is a huge threat right now, and significant impacts from the ice will occur, such as power outages and severe tree damage. Get prepared now. This is going to be our highest impact storm since 2019, and maybe even 2016. Snow with ice is a terrible combination. The models still haven't come in to consensus though, even less than 24 hours out. It's ridiculous. Winter storm warnings for MoCo and our surrounding counties are in effect right now. It states 4-8 inches of snow and up to 0.1 inches of ice for Upper MoCo, and 3-6 inches for lower MoCo, plus 0.10-0.25 inches of ice. They also said that "snow Thursday morning will be heavy at times with snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour possible along with visibility reduced to around one-quarter mile at time." The storm will start around 2-4 AM, and end on Friday morning. We will have at least 6 hours of snow, then 6 or so hours of ice, then we will switch back to snow. When talking about models I will also include ice accumulation(if I have that data).

NAM(12km):

The NAM shows heavy snow before turning over into sleet and then eventually tapering off. Models have been trending towards a more lighter event after 2 PM Thursday. It does show less sleet and more heavy snow. In terms of ice accumulation, it practically shows no ice, except for a glaze(<0.01-0.05) in the southern borders.

Snow Accumulation:

The NAM shows 4-7 inches of snow, with more snow in the northern areas than southern areas. The most snow is in the Frederick County/Montgomery County border. The heavy band will drop most of the snow; the NAM shows 2-3 inches before the band and then after the band; totals around 4-6 inches for a lot of the county! This is an improvement and shows that it corrected itself a bit because radar shows the storm strengthening right now and going a tad more south.

European:

The European model shows the heavy snow turning into freezing rain. It does show some scattered snow showers after the main bulk of the storm is done though. Don't have freezing rain totals.

Snow Accumulation:

The European model shows 5-8 inches of snow, with the most snow in NW areas than SE areas. I agree with this model the most in terms of totals. But models are really bad this year, so I really don't know what to choose. Note that this is a 10:1 ratio.

GFSv16:

Snow Totals(someone sent me it who had access to WeatherBell):

This model is a different version of the GFS, yet they are both so different. The GFSv16 is showing over 8-12 inches for MoCo; most areas around 10-11 inches. This is possible if we see heavier snow and less mixing, but there isn't enough confidence to give a clear answer. I think that this would be a boom scenario, but the chances of this happening increase in the northwestern areas of our county, and the chances decrease when you go to the southeastern areas of our county. 10 inches could happen for the whole county, I'm just saying it's more likely in northern areas than southern areas. If the warm air aloft is suppressed enough, this could easily happen. However, we don't know if models are over or underdoing the WAA(warm air advection; pretty much warm air aloft, temps on the surface/ground will be below freezing), since each model has a different opinion and disagreement everywhere. This is a tricky setup, and I don't think I have seen this amount of disagreement this close to the storm. We can hope but don't count on these amounts; just know that it is possible.

GFS:

The GFS shows the storm starting out as heavy snow before turning into a mix, and shows some sort of lull before the precipitation starts again, and it starts to taper off when it's turned back to snow for everyone. I won't be showing the 18z run cause it's completely wrong, and I don't want to mislead my readers. You can check it on Pivotal Weather for yourself if you would like.

Ice Accumulation:

The GFS shows 0.2 inches - 0.5 inches of ice(freezing rain not sleet). This amount would be devastating and would cause major damage, including widespread power outages and extreme tree damage. I don't think we will see this much though, but we will still see enough to cause significant damage.

Snow Accumulation:

The GFS shows 4-7 inches of snow across the county, but its generally scattered. NW areas generally have more snow than SE areas though. I don't agree with these totals, its pretty scattered. The GFS has been not so great with this system, in my personal opinion. It has been proven; showing 3-5 inches in Arkansas, and then those areas under that forecast(of GFS) are getting totals much higher than that.

CMC:

The CMC has shifted south. It shows heavy snow turning over to sleet, then turning back over into snow. I don't have ice totals for this model.

Snow Accumulation:

The CMC shows 4-6 inches for our county, with the highest totals west of us. I don't agree with this model that much but I will show it anyways. This is a 10:1 ratio though.

Maps:

NWS:

The NWS shows 4-6 inches for most of the county, with 6-8 inches for Northern MoCo. If we boom, they expect 6-8 inches for 3/4 of the whole county, with 8-12 inches in the upper quarter of MoCo. If we bust, they expect 1-4 inches of snow, 1-2 inches for Southern MoCo, 2-3 inches for most of Northern MoCo, and 3-4 inches for areas like Damascus and Clarksburg. Boom(high-end) and bust(low-end) maps will be listed below.

High-end totals(boom scenario, more snow than expected)

Low-end totals(bust scenario, less snow than expected)

Ice Totals:

The NWS shows 0.01-0.10 inches of ice for Northern MoCo, where more snow is expected, and 0.10-0.25 inches for Southern MoCo. This is much less than what they have said before thankfully.

Fox 5:

Fox 5 predicts 3-6 inches for the entire county, with more snow in NW areas than SE areas. They said that areas in the 6-12 inches of snow area are closer to 6 inches than 12 inches.

WUSA 9:

Snow Accumulation:

Howard Bernstein shows 6-9+ inches of snow for 55-65% of MoCo, and the southern part of MoCo in the 4-6 inches of snow. He said localized amounts of 10 to 11 inches of snow are possible, but mainly in the mountains(Hagerstown and west).

Ice Accumulation:

They show 0.1-0.25 inches of ice for most of the county, with the MoCo/DC border in the 0.25-0.5 inches of ice section. This would cause major issues.

ABC 7:

ABC 7 thinks 3-6 inches for our entire county. Their map hasn't changed that much.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 shows 2-6 inches for most of our county and 6-10 inches in the northernmost portion of our county. They said that ice will be on top of that 2-6 inches of snow in the dark blue section, and in the purple section, it should be mostly snow.

Capital Weather Gang:

Snow Accumulation:

The CWG shows 3-6 inches for most of the county(2/3), and 1/3 of MoCo(southern section) is in the 2-4 inches of snow area. In the 3-6 inches of snow area, a boom would be up to 10 inches, and a bust would be 1-3 inches. In the 2-4 inches of snow area, a boom would be up to 8 inches, and a bust would be less than 2 inches.

Ice Accumulation:

The CWG shows most of our county in the "low threat" region, and our very southern areas in the "Moderate Threat" region, where 0.05-0.2 inches of ice is expected, with a boom being up to 0.4 inches, and a bust being none. If we bust here, we should see more snow. If we boom here, we should see less snow. Temps will remain below freezing the entire time; it is just what is going up in the atmosphere.

QuackyDucc's(my friend's) Snowflake Prediction: 4.5 SNOWFLAKES ❆❆❆❆❄

His statement: "I think that school buildings and virtual learning will be closed tomorrow because of the very high amounts of ice and the future accumulating snow coming."

My Snowflake Prediction(deserves an image): 5 SNOWFLAKES

7:30 AM Update(Thursday): 

Unfortunately for snow lovers, it's looking like an ice storm instead of a snowstorm. Heavy sleet and freezing rain outside my window. Prepare for power outages, cause they are likely. I have downgraded my forecast to 2-4 inches in Southern MoCo and 3-5 inches in Northern MoCo.

9:10 PM Update:

Even though MCPS has called virtual classes to continue, I still think that they will reconsider their decision. Both school and office buildings are closed, which should mean that virtual instruction should close, but it isn't. If they don't reconsider, I honestly think that action can and might be taken against MCPS; this is ridiculous, and I am not just saying this as a student. Many other parents and teachers, even those who are generally against snow days agree this was a very poor decision. Temps areawide is 4-8 degrees colder than expected, making the snow's job to rapidly accumulate even easier. Roads and sidewalks will be a trashy mess. This storm has really grown and gotten gassed up in the past few hours; Arkansas was expected to get 3-5 inches and have now gotten 10-12+ inches of snow. The storm is now even further south than what was modeled, giving us the chance for more snow. I think that the potential for higher snow totals is increasing. So for my snow totals, I will change it to 4-8+ inches of snow for Northern MoCo and 3-6+ inches for Southern MoCo(for snow). The warm nose a little bit warmer than expected though, so I don't know... Snowflake prediction dropped to 3 snowflakes; 50% chance of no school.

I have never been this confident in schools closing for a very long time. I would be completely shocked if virtual instruction wasn't canceled. The University of Maryland has closed in-person and virtual activities, and they are located south of us(granted they are supposed to see more ice). They don't close easily at all, and if they closed for the day, it's a good step in the right direction. Temps will be in the mid to upper 20's the entire time, making sure sticking happens on all surfaces. Heavy snowfall rates, often reaching 1-2+ inch per hour rates will help snow quickly accumulate. The heaviest snow should be between 6 AM - 1 PM. Plows won't be able to keep up with the snowfall rates, and snow-covered surfaces are guaranteed. Surface temps will be below freezing the entire time. I doubt offices will stay open. And the wet, heavy snow plus the ice will cause lots of stress on power lines and will cause spotty power outages, and tree damage. Trees are already somewhat damaged from the ice storm we had on Saturday. Cleanup will become much more difficult when the ice starts coming down and compacting the snow. Over 0.5 inches of QPF are expected to fall with this storm. The storm should start to taper off and become lighter in the afternoon hours, and there might be a lull, but roads will be impossible. Power outages are likely as well, and internet providers may fail with the conditions outside. There is not a doubt school buildings won't close. And virtual learning may cease to work as well. If they don't close, there will be accidents galore. Our storm is more south than what the afternoon models showed, meaning that the storm is picking up more moisture and fuel from the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure is at the right place so the storm won't go north. Heavier snow bands would enforce dynamic cooling, keeping it mostly snow. I predict 3-6+ inches for Southern MoCo(falling in all, not what is on the ground), and 4-8 inches in Northern MoCo. The snow should start in the early AM hours of Thursday, and start to taper off at 12-2p, where it will slowly start to turn into a mix. Mixing will continue into the night and will switch back to snow. The precip might start to pick up at 5pm, but won't be nearly as heavy as the precip in the morning. The snow in the morning will be really, heavy, and I mean it! Totals should be close to storm totals once the band is done(not the exact same since there is still more snow to go). Prepare for power outages, travel will be impossible tomorrow morning, and will start to become better in the afternoon hours, but will still be dangerous. This will be a high-impact storm and will be since at least 2019. Precip should be all said and done by Friday morning. Expect to wake up to a winter wonderland tomorrow. 

Thursday-Friday Storm Update and First Snowflake Prediction

The afternoon and evening models have all been trending better for snow lovers. This storm has the potential to be the biggest storm since Jan 31- Feb 3 for people who didn't get that much from it. Winter storm watches are in effect for 5+ inches of snow and 0.25+  inches of ice possible, for the entire county. This is looking like a snow-to-mix event. Temps should be below freezing the entire time, so as of now, we shouldn't be seeing regular rain. However, model trends suggest a possible switch back to snow, and even an all snow event. In this article, we will be looking at models and first-call maps.

NAM 12km (Short-Range Model):

The NAM shows us starting as heavy snow, then shows us turning into a heavy mix(sleet) before the storm is done. Now, let me tell you why this would be wrong. You see that 1034mb high over New England(interior northeast)? A warm nose with that strong of a high wouldn't be able to push in that north and west of the I-95 Corridor. And this model does have a warm bias and is an outlier. Although it usually performs well, unless other models start trending this way, I don't really buy this.

This model shows a sad 1-8 inches of snow. There is a sharp gradient in upper Northern MoCo, with the border getting close to 5-8, and elsewhere 2-5 inches(in northern MoCo). Everywhere else is along 1-3 inches. Again, the NAM is really bad with its warm nose.

European Model:

The European model shows an all snow event for Northern MoCo. For southern MoCo, it shows some mixing(freezing rain) occurring from 1-5 PM Thursday, before transitioning into all snow. It shows the snow getting out of here around 7a Friday. Although I think this is going well with this system, it might be under modeling the WAA(warm air advection) above, which would give us more mixing and ice than snow, but CAD keeps the precipitation wintry. Let's look at some snow maps.

The European model shows 6-9 inches of snow, with more snow Northern MoCo. And this is assuming a 10:1 ratio, snow ratios will likely be higher, bumping up totals to possibly 7-10 inches.

GFS:

The GFS is a snow lover's dream. It shows very heavy snow rates before turning over into sleet and then into freezing rain. It has ticked south... again. Nice to know that it corrected itself.

The GFS shows, and I have been wanting to say this for a long time, over a FOOT of snow in the border of MoCo/Frederick County! 8-13 inches, with more snow north and west than south and east. It overdid the totals, but this is very encouraging.

CMC:

The CMC has shifted south as well, giving us more snow. It shows all snow for northern MoCo and even the northern section for Southern MoCo. It shows some mixing in interior Southern MoCo, but no rain. It changes to all snow for everyone before moving out.

The CMC shows a good 8-12 inches of snow when this storm is done. And this is only a 10:1 ratio, temps will likely be colder, meaning higher ratios, meaning more snow. I think it does put too much snow on the ground but we will see...

Capital Weather Gang:

The CWG shows 3-6 inches for most of the county, and 2-4 inches for Southern MoCo. In the 3-6 inches range, a boom with be up to 10 inches and a bust in that section will be 1-3 inches. In the 2-4 inches of snow range, a boom would be up to 8 inches, and a bust would be less than 2 inches.

WUSA 9:

WUSA 9 shows 3-6 for most of the county(2/3), and 1/3 of the county(southern) is in the 2-4 inches of snow range. They think that delays and cancellations, plus snow covered roads are extremely likely, and power outages and downed trees are possible.

Fox 5:

Almost the entire county is in the 3-6 inches of snow range, with the northern border in the 6-12 inches of snow range. They are going conserative with their snow totals, understandably.

ABC 7 didn't release a map.

NBC 4:

NBC 4 thinks 2-6 inches for most of the county, and 6-10 inches for the upper cap of MoCo. They think that significant icing is likely across the blue and light blue area.

NWS:

Snow Accumulation:

Expected:

The NWS shows 4-6 inches for the entire county. Somehow, DC is in that range too, which is... unlikely, because of the snowhole, but we will see. They will somehow manage to measure an inch or two even if the entire region around it gets 10 inches...

Low-End(Bust Scenario):

This would be devastating, but honestly, as much as I hate to admit it, there is a pretty good chance of this playing out. It shows 1-3 inches of snow, with 2-3 inches for half of the county, and 1-2 in the rest(scattered snow amounts)

High-End(Boom Scenario):

The NWS shows 6-8 inches of snow for the entire county. This is a snow lover's hope; one can dream!

Ice Accumulation:

The NWS shows 0.10-0.25 inches of ice for the whole county, even upcounty. Totals would be closer to the high-end of the range in Southern MoCo. This is enough to cause major disruptions, and with the snow and sleet... it won't be pretty to say the least. Widespread tree damage, and spotty, possibly widespread, power outages will occur.

Snowflake Prediction: 4 Snowflakes ❆❆❆❆

Virtual Instruction Version: 75% chance of offices closing, and almost 100% chance of school buildings closing. 

I think that there will be no school, even no virtual instruction, on Thursday. MCPS has already canceled food distribution for Thursday, suggesting that school buildings will close. I think offices will close as well, due to the heavy snow that will fall, and the significant icing, especially in southern MoCo. Temps should remain below freezing the entire time in the entire county, so there will be no hope of some melting. It's also going to be very cold on Wednesday and today night, with wind chills in the teens and possibly lower. If there is less snow, there will be more ice. And forget in-person offices, if there is a lot of ice, tree damage and possibly widespread power outages will occur. The ice will be on top of the snow as well, causing more havoc. Snow ratios will probably be greater than 10:1 as well. We will see backend snow from this storm as well. My first prediction in snow totals will be 4-8 inches across the county, with 3-6 inches in Southern MoCo, and 4-8+ in Northern MoCo(notice that plus, it means higher amounts possible). My first ice accumulation forecast would be 0.1-0.25 inches of ice for Northern MoCo, and 0.2-0.5 inches of ice in Southern MoCo. Snow will start to move in the night hours of Wednesday, and the precipitation(snow most likely) will move out around Thursday night. Snow is possible into Friday, but everything should be done by Friday afternoon. The bulk of the snow and precipitation will fall between 7a - 9p Thursday. This will be highly dangerous, and will be life-threatening, not only because of the snow, but because of the ice. The ice is the main concern for Southern MoCo, but the snow will also be a big concern. I hope that we see more snow than ice, and I think even the people who don't like snow that much can hope for that too. Do not travel on Thursday; it will be extremely dangerous and life-threatening, and will be impossible at times. Power outages and tree damage is likely. Be prepared for outages. I will have an update when tomorrow's afternoon models come in.